Bull to bear market
- Thread starter mr_byte31
- Start date
by the time that happens market is already down 10% and then you short the medium term low at best The first death cross in 201#5 marked the low since almost to the day
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No way to "identify early".
However, you can make a "guess play" at something significant. One such play which is obvious right now (but not "obviously correct" as of yet) is the 2X top in the Dow.
Disagree.
You're always "trading around a bias", even if you don't acknowledge it. (Stated it this way so that we don't have to suffer the dumbass response... "I never have any bias, I just trade.")
Nothing more than a structural misstep. Look at that low volume on the down side (SPY).
No problem to disagree.
Personally, I believe having the correct bias is the #1 most important concern to trading success. When you get into a string of losers, it's almost always because you held the wrong bias.
Don't let anyone tell you its now a bull market or its now a bear market, and certainly don't act blindly on what they say. Nobody knows with certainty which way the market will go. But certainty of market action is not necessary for profitable trading, only absolute certainty of what you will do about it.
All my trades are trend-following on the basis that where price has been rising it will probably continue to rise than start to fall. You need to set out categorically what chart features would be needed in order to get you to buy and then only buy when you see these. You need to set out what changes in these features would make you get out and then pay attention to them. Obviously I was stopped out yesterday and am now waiting for chart to become either more bullish or more bearish according to my strategy rules. These might be very different from yours but what's important is to have a comprehensive plan and follow it.
All my trades are trend-following on the basis that where price has been rising it will probably continue to rise than start to fall. You need to set out categorically what chart features would be needed in order to get you to buy and then only buy when you see these. You need to set out what changes in these features would make you get out and then pay attention to them. Obviously I was stopped out yesterday and am now waiting for chart to become either more bullish or more bearish according to my strategy rules. These might be very different from yours but what's important is to have a comprehensive plan and follow it.