Bull Market

[ARogueTrader]

Now is not the time to have a bias beyond saying that the trend has been up for a long time now and we are in an election year.

The NAZ has closed down 4 weeks in a row, so that clearly is a correction pointing to a cycle low.

Should support hold, bears would do well to get out or go long.

Conversely, if we break support, bulls should get out or go short.

Isn't that what we want?

Markets that test support and hold/break that support before they cycle back up?

Or markets that have well defined support that if it breaks indicates we cycle much lower?

Last year we had a cycle low around Valentines day.

Then we had another cycle low around the middle of March.

The issue is whether this is just another cycle low or the end of the bull run.

In an election year like this one, when the economy is fragile and much depends on consumer confidence for Bush, it is unlikely that the bull run is over.

It is not at all uncommon for a peak in January, followed by weakness in February and/or March, followed by a rally into the spring.

 

[waggie945]

I agree.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from ARogueTrader:

Now is not the time to have a bias beyond saying that the trend has been up for a long time now and we are in an election year.

The NAZ has closed down 4 weeks in a row, so that clearly is a correction pointing to a cycle low.

Should support hold, bears would do well to get out or go long.

Conversely, if we break support, bulls should get out or go short.

Isn't that what we want?

Markets that test support and hold/break that support before they cycle back up?

Or markets that have well defined support that if it breaks indicates we cycle much lower?

Last year we had a cycle low around Valentines day.

Then we had another cycle low around the middle of March.

The issue is whether this is just another cycle low or the end of the bull run.

In an election year like this one, when the economy is fragile and much depends on consumer confidence for Bush, it is unlikely that the bull run is over.

It is not at all uncommon for a peak in January, followed by weakness in February and/or March, followed by a rally into the spring.

=====

QQQ & tek in general can have weak Februarys;
but like you said we are in a bull market.

DIA,SPY look even stronger in uptrends.

 

[grimer11]

TECHS look poised to continue the breakout in the very near term......the rest of the market seems very soggy.......also, i'm concerned about the island top in your graphone man's opinion.


grimer11

 

[blackguard]

Quote from ARogueTrader:




It is not at all uncommon for a peak in January, followed by weakness in February and/or March, followed by a rally into the spring.

right. I posted about february being an overall crappy month at the end of January. Watch for the enrgies to get going on the next leg up.

Just a thought.

 

[QdzResurrection]

Yes, true. 100% up room to go!

 

[AC3]

The only room up 2 go will b propogated by the fall of the Dollar ...... when that reverses course (as it did today from 1030am NY till the 4pm Close) you will C the equities take a crap and fast (as they did today from 1030am NY till the 4pm Close). This isnt widely reported and u prob wont find too many people outside the fx community watching it but it is dead on.

 

[Reitberg]

I am going to wait for a 10-13% move to the downside in the SPX and RUT. I believe that will confirm that the downtrend is back. Then I will wait for a 60% retracement to the upside. Then I will short the world of both bonds and stocks. But as Waggie knows, I will stay long my coffee futures no matter what.

 

[slammajamma]

Quote from AC3:

The only room up 2 go will b propogated by the fall of the Dollar ...... when that reverses course (as it did today from 1030am NY till the 4pm Close) you will C the equities take a crap and fast (as they did today from 1030am NY till the 4pm Close). This isnt widely reported and u prob wont find too many people outside the fx community watching it but it is dead on.

What % of US stocks do you suppose is held by foreigners?

 

[AC3]

Much more then is reported and growing fast .......why wudnt u ur getting a huge premium for ur Euro and GBP and in the end the fx will come back 2 a relative value band and ull make a nice vig ......... bonds is another story ....... we might as well print those 10 year and 30 year bonds w/ Chinese subtiltles......