bull market has resumed

Thanks those are very interesting charts.

The one that fascinates me the most is the 1190/1200 SPX chart with negative divergence and the chart right beneath it commenting on 1200 SPX support.

I put the Oct 1190/1180 ES options bear vertical put on for a credit (by trading into it). I recently took off the 1180 hedge and I am now long naked the 1190 Oct put - greed is a terrible thing. I now fear that my premium ends up going to zero by expiration, but the analysis on those chart is dead on with what I see.

I will say that the fundamentals for this quarter should be interesting. Septermber is going to be a disaster. I walk around malls and they are ghost towns now. I talk to my ex and she says there is no question of a RE slowdown. I walk into BBY and it is dead. I go to a DRI and on weekends the wait was 45 minutes - now it is 15. I go to a movie with my daughter and the theatre is half empty. For the first time in I don't know how long I saw people in gas lines. I see food stocks and PG being bid up in the markets.

How much of it is priced in already and how this plays out in the market is going to be fascinating in Oct.

nitro
Quote from gharghur2:

nitro,

sorry I edited the post ... a better link.
and your right 1242 INX ... i'm too tuned into the COMPX
More...
 
Quote from nitro:

Thanks those are very interesting charts.

The one that fascinates me the most is the 1190/1200 SPX chart with negative divergence and the chart right beneath it commenting on 1200 SPX support...I will say that the fundamentals for this quarter should be interesting. September is going to be a disaster. I walk around malls and they are ghost towns now. I talk to my ex and she says there is no question of a RE slowdown. I walk into BBY and it is dead. I go to a DRI and on weekends the wait was 45 minutes - now it is 15. I go to a movie with my daughter and the theatre is half empty. For the first time in I don't know how long I saw people in gas lines. I see food stocks and PG being bid up in the markets.

How much of it is priced in already and how this plays out in the market is going to be fascinating in Oct.

nitro
More...

Hi!

Yes, the SPX charts #3 and #4 (negative divergences), are charts of the past 3 - 5 years. This is typical when the third wave has a rapid rate of increase per month. Third waves are usually the acceleration part of the bull market. I'd expect these divergences to last for a while until this wave 5 gets underway in earnest. Good luck on your puts!

Agree! The consumer has withdrawn somewhat over the past few weeks. The FED has reached their goal of impacting R.E. And, the defensive stocks are being bid up. Stage is set for an economic slowdown and an easing up of FED policy. Sounds like a catalyst for another leg up in stocks. THX

tony
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Hi!

Yes, the SPX charts #3 and #4 (negative divergences), are charts of the past 3 - 5 years. This is typical when the third wave has a rapid rate of increase per month. Third waves are usually the acceleration part of the bull market. I'd expect these divergences to last for a while until this wave 5 gets underway in earnest. Good luck on your puts!

Agree! The consumer has withdrawn somewhat over the past few weeks. The FED has reached their goal of impacting R.E. And, the defensive stocks are being bid up. Stage is set for an economic slowdown and an easing up of FED policy. Sounds like a catalyst for another leg up in stocks. THX

tony
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PLEASE NOTE:

divergences only set up during wave 5 of the EWT. Wave 3 is the peak in any momentum indicator you use.


Wave 3 can NEVER have divergence when compared to wave 1...


thank you.
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

PLEASE NOTE:

divergences only set up during wave 5 of the EWT. Wave 3 is the peak in any momentum indicator you use.


Wave 3 can NEVER have divergence when compared to wave 1...


thank you.
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Absolutely correct!
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Totally understand your point.

However, did not the stock market rise during the early 1940's while the entire world was at war?
Or, the early 1950's during the Korean war?
Or, the early 1960's during the Cuban missle crisis?
Or, the early 1970's during the Vietnam war?

The al-qaeda are only important to themselves.
Radicals eventually lose interest when people stop paying attention to them.
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They are taking a religious stance. It's a little different than some kid on a playground. Terrorism is a huge uncertainty that can't be predicted (at least not for me). Don't you agree that is could devastate the US economy and disprove your argument?
 
Quote from Passive Pete:

They are taking a religious stance. It's a little different than some kid on a playground. Terrorism is a huge uncertainty that can't be predicted (at least not for me). Don't you agree that is could devastate the US economy and disprove your argument?
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Hi Pete,

According to the Saeculum cycle, we are in a generation of crisis, similar in nature to the 1929 - 1946 period in history. The other periods, in this country, include: 1773 - 1794 and 1860 - 1865. They were all periods that ended in major wars.

As a species, I have to believe we have outgrown the need to totally dominate each other with military warfare. Economic warfare is the new game in town. Thus, terrorism has been trying, unsuccessfully, to disrupt our economy.

My technical work on the markets, is telling me we're good until probably 2007. After that I just don't know...
 
Yeah, I don't know...markets often do the opposite of what seems logical, only to display a kind of logic after the fact. I tall depends on focus...

One thing though, doesn't Precter, the high priest of this stuff today, come to the exact oppisite conclusions that you do?

nitro
Quote from gharghur2:

...Sounds like a catalyst for another leg up in stocks. THX

tony
More...
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Nick,

This may or may not help. I do not day trade.
I started seriously accumulating stocks last monday, buying on the dips. Mostly, the COMPX since that's what I follow. I'm looking to add to those positions on any pullbacks.

As of friday, I can count the second advance, from the thursday lows, as a subdivided completed structure. It can always extend, of course. On monday, I'm looking to add to my positions on a correction of this wave.

I see solid support between 2135 and 2140 COMPX, about a 38% - 50% retracement. See chart below. A drop to 2108 would abort my entire near term scenario.

Tony
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Tony, I think you and me may be the only ones who don't daytrade on ET....

A couple of more people and we could start a club....:D
 
is not this a negative , that we have not rallied much since april ? or is it a factor of lower VOLS
and there not being as much interest in equities
these days ?

-Since the bull market began in Oct. 2002, the INX has provided only four momentum bottoms: Mar.'03, Aug.'03, Aug.'04 and Apr.'05. In each of the three previous bottoms this index has rallied between 15% - 26%. Thus far it has only managed a meager 8% advance from the April '05 low. -

-Also, the INDU has provided five momentum bottoms: Mar.'03, May.'03, Jly.'03, Oct.'04 and Apr.'05. In each of the previous four bottoms this index has rallied between 12% - 19%. Thus far, it has only managed a 7% advance from its April lows. Thus, I feel both indices are in position to move higher without the need of a major momentum bottom-
 
Quote from nitro:

Yeah, I don't know...markets often do the opposite of what seems logical, only to display a kind of logic after the fact. I tall depends on focus...

One thing though, doesn't Precter, the high priest of this stuff today, come to the exact oppisite conclusions that you do?

nitro
More...

Does Prechter still have his high priest frock :)
He abides by conventional EW, that's too subjective for me.
 
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