bull market has resumed

Quote from gharghur2:

According to my work, as I posted earlier in the week, the market is in the early stages of the next major advance. Maybe we'll even see 'all time new highs' in the DOW.

All the major indices are now in sync to launch the next major advance in this bull market. After the COMPX became sufficiently oversold, on my MMI a week ago, it has started impulsing up in very nice constructive waves. I can now count 5 waves up from the 9/22 intraday low of 2093 into the 9/26 high of 2133. Then a very bullish corrective double flat ending 9/29 at 2108. And over the past two days, a subdivided 5 waves up right into friday's close of 2152. I've labeled these waves 1-2-3 of wave one of minute wave iii, with waves 4-5 to occur over the next few days. This is only the very beginning of the advance: see 10 day chart.

Short term support in the COMPX is now around 2135 - 2140. This represents a 23% - 38% retracement of the wave 3 thurs-fri advance. The initial advance, wave 1 last thurs-mon, corrected about 62%. Have a great week!

http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
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Making predictions is a loosers game, all that matters is what is happening right now, today is all that matters.
 
I always love how these threads start as the market closes on the highs on a Friday. After all, if a guy is a "macro" player, why doesnt he start this exact thread on the previous Friday, or on any random day the market closes on its lows. If, after all, this is such a macro bull market, why not just randomly pick any day of the week over the course of the year to provide such "cutting edge" analysis.

Just think of what a different 10-15 SP points makes in this environment. It turns the entire market players from uber-bears to uber-bulls in the course of 2 trading days.
 
Quote from invaliduser:

Well lower rates are a problem, there have been 11 or 12 rate hikes with minimal effect. How are they going to raise long term rates? Will we need to see 15 more rate hikes?
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Yeah that'll do it! LOL

Maestro Greenspan is finally doing what he should have done his whole tenure: "Manage rates, so that everyone knows ahead of time what to expect".

Long term rates will probably not rise until there is a significant increase in the demand for borrowing: capitol expenditures.

The FED has been cranking up short rates in an attempt to stem the housing boom and speculation, and slow down consumer borrowing during this substantially rising energy costs period. I think!

tony
 
Quote from Bitstream:

Hi T--Glad to hear that.
I'd be happy to see again SIRI move 20% a day
and it wasn't that far back,... just 2004.

When the fed will be done we'll see quite a sustantial relief rally and I expect to be there for the taking.

PP
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Hey PP,

Very true, and when crude finally breaks they'll be a mad rush into the equity markets too. Rita put a bottom in this market.

tony
 
Quote from Rickshaw Man:

Making predictions is a loosers game, all that matters is what is happening right now, today is all that matters.
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True...but you wouldn't drive somewhere you had never been without a roadmap, right? This is a roadmap, not a crystal ball.
I leave the crystal balls to those that make predictions.
 
Quote from bladerunner:

bull i.e. nasdaq is on life-support and the only way to revive it is to eliminate al-qaeda which will take a long long long long time.
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Totally understand your point.

However, did not the stock market rise during the early 1940's while the entire world was at war?
Or, the early 1950's during the Korean war?
Or, the early 1960's during the Cuban missle crisis?
Or, the early 1970's during the Vietnam war?

The al-qaeda are only important to themselves.
Radicals eventually lose interest when people stop paying attention to them.
 
Quote from jackbyrd:

I always love how these threads start as the market closes on the highs on a Friday. After all, if a guy is a "macro" player, why doesnt he start this exact thread on the previous Friday, or on any random day the market closes on its lows. If, after all, this is such a macro bull market, why not just randomly pick any day of the week over the course of the year to provide such "cutting edge" analysis.

Just think of what a different 10-15 SP points makes in this environment. It turns the entire market players from uber-bears to uber-bulls in the course of 2 trading days.
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Hi Jack, http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=55588&perpage=20&pagenumber=2

09-29-05 06:00 AM

Even though the market has barely budged off it's closing lows of last wednesday: COMPX +0.4%, INDU +0.9% and the INX +0.6%, I feel we have seen a major bottom; and the end of the ABC correction in the COMPX. I can't rule out one more shake out to get the two other indices (INDU and INX) into oversold condition, but at this point that may not be required. This is why!

With last weeks selloff into the recent lows, I can now count wave C being completed, and the entire ABC correction (minute ii) completed in the form of a flat. I had mentioned this possibly on Sept 17th.

Adding more conviction to this count is the fact that the COMPX made an intraday bottom of 2093 last thursday, retested that 2093 bottom on friday. Then rallied up 5 waves to 2133 by monday, and has since corrected to 2109 on tuesday, and retested 2109 successfully again today. Thus, I can see an impulse wave up from the intraday lows and a correction of that advance in the form of a flat. This would indicate that the COMPX should start heading much higher right about now.

Tony

http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Hi Jack, http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=55588&perpage=20&pagenumber=2

09-29-05 06:00 AM

Even though the market has barely budged off it's closing lows of last wednesday: COMPX +0.4%, INDU +0.9% and the INX +0.6%, I feel we have seen a major bottom; and the end of the ABC correction in the COMPX. I can't rule out one more shake out to get the two other indices (INDU and INX) into oversold condition, but at this point that may not be required. This is why!

With last weeks selloff into the recent lows, I can now count wave C being completed, and the entire ABC correction (minute ii) completed in the form of a flat. I had mentioned this possibly on Sept 17th.

Adding more conviction to this count is the fact that the COMPX made an intraday bottom of 2093 last thursday, retested that 2093 bottom on friday. Then rallied up 5 waves to 2133 by monday, and has since corrected to 2109 on tuesday, and retested 2109 successfully again today. Thus, I can see an impulse wave up from the intraday lows and a correction of that advance in the form of a flat. This would indicate that the COMPX should start heading much higher right about now.

Tony

http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
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ok thanks tony.
 
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