bull market has resumed

Quote from gharghur2:

According to my work, as I posted earlier in the week, the market is in the early stages of the next major advance. Maybe we'll even see 'all time new highs' in the DOW.

All the major indices are now in sync to launch the next major advance in this bull market. After the COMPX became sufficiently oversold, on my MMI a week ago, it has started impulsing up in very nice constructive waves. I can now count 5 waves up from the 9/22 intraday low of 2093 into the 9/26 high of 2133. Then a very bullish corrective double flat ending 9/29 at 2108. And over the past two days, a subdivided 5 waves up right into friday's close of 2152. I've labeled these waves 1-2-3 of wave one of minute wave iii, with waves 4-5 to occur over the next few days. This is only the very beginning of the advance: see 10 day chart.

Short term support in the COMPX is now around 2135 - 2140. This represents a 23% - 38% retracement of the wave 3 thurs-fri advance. The initial advance, wave 1 last thurs-mon, corrected about 62%. Have a great week!

http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
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Tony,

I just found your thread, I read your first post, I checked the chart for October 1st, and I couldn't stop a smile. :) It happened to all of us.

I checked your MSN blog, read your October 29 post, and got a wider smile. :)

Don't get me wrong, I was smiling to myself too. Half an hour ago, before finding your thread, I was looking at the QQQQ charts and concluded: rarely they looked to me so clearly bearish. I'm planning to do my homework for the coming week this evening, and I may change my opinion, but it is funny how opposite our opinions are at this moment.

Anyway, this week's roller-coaster with increased volume seen across the markets seem to signal some big move to come. It could be a big gap to exhaust the pressure, it could be the beginning of a strong up or down trend, but it doesn't look probable that this sideways trend will continue. But again, I could be soooo wrong about this too. :)

Your "bull market has resumed" thread title, started on the day of a market top, was so funny ... :D
 
Quote from cnms2:

Your "bull market has resumed" thread title, started on the day of a market top, was so funny ... :D
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Well not exactly the top, but a top for sure :)

I was mistakedly early...but we did catch the bottom in the NAZ a couple of weeks later at 2126. And, all the technicals are far more aligned this time than at the beginning of the month. Maybe it's time for the Spoofs to spook the bear right on halloween :)
 
Quote from balda:

what keeps me very cautious is that a lot of people are expecting a year end rally.
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... and this seem to be based only on seasonality. I see no foundation for such a rally: inflation, rates, oil, geopolitics, earnings and future guidance.

But I guess many of us firstly form an opinion and then see only the arguments that confirm it. Only after the facts we'll see the obvious. :confused:
 
Quote from cnms2:

... and this seem to be based only on seasonality. I see no foundation for such a rally: inflation, rates, oil, geopolitics, earnings and future guidance.

But I guess many of us firstly form an opinion and then see only the arguments that confirm it. Only after the facts we'll see the obvious. :confused:
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understandable...but I'm only a technician and reads charts. And, they are decidedly favorable right now. maybe it's time to climb the wall of worry :)
 
Quote from gharghur2:

understandable...but we have had one in 2002, 2003 and 2004 in this bull market.
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It matters a lot if participants become over positioned to the long side in anticipation. I'd agree that enough shorts have been initiated the past two months that some buying power may lurk but I don't see a "ramp".
 
Quote from gharghur2:

understandable...but we have had one in 2002, 2003 and 2004 in this bull market.
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Are you using technical analysis too (sorry, I jumped into this discussion before reading more of your thread and blog)? If you do, what do you think about the bearish divergences seen on the SPX weekly and monthly charts, i.e. MACD Histograms?
 
Quote from Pabst:

It matters a lot if participants become over positioned to the long side in anticipation. I'd agree that enough shorts have been initiated the past two months that some buying power may lurk but I don't see a "ramp".
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Actually I'd say that I haven't seen (yet ?) the fear and panic that mark the bottoms.
 
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