Quote from Whistlingleaf:
Falconview - the minimum I'd look at strikes right now is Sept and Oct or Jan 13 is fine. I don't like shorter duration strikes and try to get out 2 months before.
To play direction you have to believe that something is going up or down.
As an example:
Since Mid March I've been very bearish, so I bought a Bull Call Spread on TZA 18-24 (July expiration) It cost me 1.30, so max gain was 4.70.
It was difficult to watch the market continue to rise through out April and be losing money, but I was pretty confident that a myriad of stocks were WAY WAY overpriced and would crash - just look at the 1 yr chart on QQQ.
I closed it on Monday when the market was down and made .72 which isn't bad for 1.30 investment. I could have made more had I held, but I rolled out to October, and bought another call spread.
Doing these type of spreads I only have to be right about 1 out of 4 times to break even.
If I pick a stock that I don't want to buy but think has huge potential I will buy out as far as I can and be patient. Right now I think coal stocks are undervalued and I have Jan 13 call spreads on JRCC, PCX, ANR, & ACI.
Now coal stocks might languish for the rest of 2012, and I might lose but I will buy more spreads later in the year when Jan 14 contracts become available or the spreads become tolerable.