Buffett vs message board amateurs - the 5 year challenge

[shortie]

Quote from MaxxHeatt:

Yeah, me too. Turns out, they were right.

 

[charts]

Quote from Cutten:

I have noticed that since Buffett said he is going to be fully invested in stocks if they stay at these prices, a few people on here have criticized him for his move, saying he will go broke etc. ...

Pay attention: he wants you to buy stocks .. He's already lost tons of money ... AXP, KO, PG, GE, and on and on ...

 

[blackjack007]

Quote from charts:

Pay attention: he wants you to buy stocks .. He's already lost tons of money ... AXP, KO, PG, GE, and on and on ...

buffet never loses money because he never sells.

 

[charts]

Quote from blackjack007:

buffet never loses money because he never sells.

you forgot the smiley ...

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from oktiri:

doesn't mean anything.
People here are TRADERS
Buffet is a long term INVESTOR

comparing apples to oranges ?

Most traders lose money in the long run.

Most investors profit in the long run (many years).

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from clacy:

I agree. The average ET'er probably has a negative net worth

So absolutely true:
Negative net worth.

 

[short&naked]

Quote from blackjack007:

buffet never loses money because he never sells.

Not until now. His "the market always recovers" trick might not work for the next 10 years. Besides, he is practically investing with what is to him play money. So what if he loses 5 billion... no big deal. It's just a game for him now. Most others however depend on returns for their bread and butter. That's a major difference.

 

[gbos]

never sells?

http://homepage.mac.com/bobembry/st...rces/authors/warren_buffett/warrenbuffett.pdf

 

[sammybea]

Quote from Cutten:

I have noticed that since Buffett said he is going to be fully invested in stocks if they stay at these prices, a few people on here have criticized him for his move, saying he will go broke etc. I thought it would be appropriate to keep a record of this, for educational reasons, and bragging rights for the ET members if they turn out to be correct.

I will note the S&P or ES globex price that is trading when the ET member posts up his disagreement with Buffett, and then start a paper trade for them short the S&P from that level, versus Buffett's long-term buy & hold. We can check back at regular intervals to see the progress, and then in 5 years will will see whether Buffett was right, or the ET posters were smarter. The total net gain & loss per contract and in percentage terms will be calculated. We can then form a fair judgement of the ET members involved, and Buffett himself.

Current dissenters:

"itcanbedone" - short ES from 920 vs Buffett long
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=141570

"NY_HOOD" - short ES from 928 vs Buffett
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=141578


Any more dissenters feel free to post here and I'll add you to the list.

Cutten, you had mentioned that you will be keeping tabs on regular intervals. Whats the latest "score"?

 

[gbos]

Berkshires Hathaway returns are available on their site

1/1/2008 - 9/30/2008 : + 0.8%

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/3rdqtr08.pdf

Previous Results ...

2001 : - 6.2 %
2002 : + 10%
2003 : + 21%
2004 : + 10.5%
2005 : +6.4%
2006 : +18.4%
2007 : +11%

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2007ar/2007ar.pdf

We will have to wait for the first ET member to accumulate a few billion dollars first and then prove he is smarter to achieve higher returns managing a multibillion dollar portfolio. It will be an interesting competition .