Buffett has given up ...

[traider]

Buys SPY ETF instead of picking stocks in latest filing.
This market is going to the moon boys.

 

[Sekiyo]

Buy some leveraged OTM naked call on SPX

 

[dozu888]

he has been several steps behind me.... my apple already tripled when he got in.

 

[dozu888]

it's too obvious... we are going permanent low yield of 2% for everything, IF THAT.

which means 50 p/e for SPY, 75 p/e for qqq.... for get the moon.

Mars here we come.

 

[dozu888]

and nobody has called the f'ing bank...

like they say you can lead the dumb money to the river...

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

it's too obvious... we are going permanent low yield of 2% for everything, IF THAT.

which means 50 p/e for SPY, 75 p/e for qqq.... for get the moon.

Mars here we come.

This analysis is incorrect. Yield is 0. Wages: don't go anywhere, interest rates can't go below 0 for mortgages, so housing prices won't move higher than wages anymore.

The only thing that is magic money now is the stock market. THE ONLY THING. That's nucking futs. Got to be something else... Got to be.

Edit here is my brain storm of new sources of yield:

- Buying governments
- Legalized slavery
- Legalized Prostitution
- Legalized drugs
- Aliens
- Affordable, effective space travel over long distances
- Pocket, safe nuclear energy (huge deflationary pressure if this happens IMO)
- AI that can get you off and help you raise your children (personal interest in this)
- Earthquakes destroying 95% of the world except my house, new Marshall plan
- Other reasons for new Marshall plan

 

[PoopyDeek]

Domestic mcap is 160% of GDP... what could go wrong?

 

[newwurldmn]

Domestic mcap is 160% of GDP... what could go wrong?

Free money!

 

[PoopyDeek]

Exceeded the tech/telecom dereg bubble. We will see flat GDP (or negative) in the next 24 months.

 

[ET180]

it's too obvious... we are going permanent low yield of 2% for everything, IF THAT.

which means 50 p/e for SPY, 75 p/e for qqq.... for get the moon.

Mars here we come.

The problem with low yields is that it *forces* institutions / people to end up in the wrong asset class based on their risk tolerance. Retirees and pension funds have already been forced to buy equities / long-term treasuries and take on more risk than they should given their situation because they simply cannot get a good yield safely. That will work fine until rates go higher. When that happens, you'll see another December 2018. The Fed was not even able to take Fed Funds to 3%, far below where they were in 2007 (5.25%) before the market forced them to capitulate on their desire for normalization. If they actually followed through and kept going all the way to 5%, the S&P would be around half the value it is today. There is an argument to be made that because inflation is low, interest rates can stay low too. The problem is that corporations have been piling on debt to buy back stock at record high prices and the US govt is running $1T deficits during good times. So everything is dependent on low interest rates today and in the future. Weak GDP and earnings growth + record high valuations justified by low interest rates sounds like a very fragile investment thesis.