Buffett going 100% long stocks

[zdreg]

Quote from Kicking:

Everyone can make mistakes, even Buffet. Especially at the end of his career after so much success and luck. He's very smart and talented and he may be right again but I don't know of anyone who got it right all the time until they died. Even the best tend to make big mistakes and so far if we make exception of his avoidance of tech in the 90's Buffet hasn't made any big mistake.
So don't follow Buffet, he may change his mind anyway. But it is a positive in the medium term .

"so far if we make exception of his avoidance of tech in the 90's Buffet hasn't made any big mistake."

I've read similar statements about jim rogers.I am sure both of them has missed other major moves besides tech.
it's irrelevant.there are plenty of big opportunities to make money in markets.
both rogers and buffett made good money in the nineties.
what both of them did very well was to find good entry points for long cyclical plays.

 

[Susannah]

Are his largest positions US companies, though? Just wondering. I thought he was big on China, too.

 

[tomahawk]

Quote from Cutten:

Let the record show that ET member 'itcanbedone' is short the S&P from current price (920 ES), whereas Buffett is long.

I will update this thread at regular intervals and see the progress - whether itcanbedone or Buffett is doing better.

And I'm guessing Cutten is long?

(No disrespect sir - I always appreciate your posts. )

 

[JamesVU2000]

Even if you are super bearish the market is so oversold that I dont see the reason trying to play from the short side. at some point the redemptions and margin calls are going to end.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from tomahawk:

And I'm guessing Cutten is long?

(No disrespect sir - I always appreciate your posts. )

I have been buying select stocks at these levels for my long-term investment account, yes. Still, I'm a trader first & foremost, whereas Buffett is 100% business owner/investor.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from JamesVU2000:

Even if you are super bearish the market is so oversold that I dont see the reason trying to play from the short side. at some point the redemptions and margin calls are going to end.

I don't think Buffett is long for a trade. He's investing - which has nothing whatsoever to do with trading.

 

[good one]

Quote from Cutten:

I have been buying select stocks at these levels for my long-term investment account, yes. Still, I'm a trader first & foremost, whereas Buffett is 100% business owner/investor.

Same here, its pretty obvious who has no long term money to have to worry about here.
I'm just starting to average into China at these levels, slow,patiently and not taking too big of a bite.
This just in across the reuters newswire...the market isn't going to go to zero and the S&P will break its all time high at some point in the future..duh.

 

[Port1385]

Notice that triangle forming at the end of price in the indexes. 75% chance of further depreciation, 25% chance at a reversal.

 

[tomahawk]

Quote from jdeezero05:

Same here, its pretty obvious who has no long term money to have to worry about here.
I'm just starting to average into China at these levels, slow,patiently and not taking too big of a bite.
This just in across the reuters newswire...the market isn't going to go to zero and the S&P will break its all time high at some point in the future..duh.

You raise an interesting question. If one is "first and foremost a trader", regardless of their net worth, would that not imply that most of his/her capital would be in trading accounts vs investment accounts? That would seem to me the logical inference.

In my case it's not a question of not having "long term money", just that I've had miserable returns with the buy and holds, vs trading, which I feel I have some grasp of (on most days).

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from Cutten:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

His essential arguments:

i) stocks are cheap because of short-term bad news
ii) the news will improve, and in 5, 10 years time profits will be at new records
iii) by the time the news improves stocks will be much higher - staying out of stocks until news gets better will therefore cost you lots of money
iv) most investors are holding cash, a terrible long-term asset with pathetic returns and which will probably be severely eroded by inflationary policies to deal with the current crisis
v) investors holding cash think they will be able to time the end of the bear market by moving into stocks at the lows - history says they will fail to do this, and end up buying at far higher prices

Even if this goes badly how much can he lose? 10% of 40 billion? This is a great move.