Buckle up Guys its starting

Every time Trump takes on a few extra electoral votes the dow futures fall another 100 points....incredible.... At the rate its looking might be a 1000 point gap down kind of day tomorrow...but if Clinton comes out on top look for a huge gigantic reversal in the futures to +500
 
Good to see most didn't fall for all the bullshit in the media. Clinton would've been a disaster.
 
propwarrior said:
Very good question. On the first point about Trump 'walking' the election Implied probabilities of a Clinton victory are c. 85% at betting exchanges. I believe this figure to be woefully inaccurate and here is why. Firstly the polls are not picking up 2 groups of people. i) shy trumpers ii) people who have never voted before. A substantial % of people will not openly admit to voting trump in public or more so social circles. The second group do not respond to polls, they either hang up the phone or don't do online terribly well. The majority of the polls are run by companies owned or controlled by the establishment hence over sampling is rife. Something like the Rasmussen poll is more independent and this shows them virtually neck and neck with momentum in Trumps favour. Once you add in the 2 groups above I believe Trump will win comfortably, c 55% 45%.
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I have to admit it was much closer than I thought it would be, currently 49% Trump 47% Clinton. I thought the margin would be a minimum of 5% for trump and likely 10%. This being said we will never know what the actual real vote percentage was.

The US dodged a bullet today, the sad thing is most people don't realise it.
 
To put this into perspective, the indexes are still above their Brexit lows...and way above their Jan-Feb lows. Even a really bad week and 10% drop isn't a big deal in the long term. Now if you're heavily long (leveraged) in the short term, that's a different story.
 
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