Buckle up Guys its starting

llIHeroic said:
While it may not be realistic to expect that, there's nothing that tells us that it absolutely won't happen. You might have a good case for arguing that; but at the end of the day it's a conclusion which stems from inductive reasoning. And to place a guarantee on something like that is not a behavior common among consistently successful traders, at least that I've seen.

I think Simple has the much better worldview for trading profitably here. Although he might have misspoke labeling the possibility as realistic, it's a healthy practice to acknowledge the possibility of highly unlikely scenarios coming to pass. The briefest overview of market history should drive that point home.

I'd caution anyone reading this against projecting your own expectations, well-reasoned as they may be, as an absolute in regards to reality. Especially in this business, that particular flaw has led to eventual catastrophic failure for a good number of traders.
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Thanks for making the points. "Expecting the unexpected" is entrenched in my trading philosophy. So much so that I have to now tweak that into "expect what no one else expects". In other words, I don't follow the herd. This has worked well for me, as I was able to quit my job and become a full-time trader back in 2009. I knew that the new bull market was underway, and I didn't want to miss a minute of it.

However, I would venture to say that a market double without a 10% correction cannot happen. That didn't even happen during the dot-com bubble, or that crazy period of 7 years that the Dow went from 3000 to 11000. There were numerous 10% corrections.

I leave you with one of the many golden rules of investing: The market doesn't go straight up.
 
SimpleTrades said:
You may be right, but I believe that over the last few years we did go through a doubling without ever reverting back into bear territory.
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OF COURSE! It's been a 7+ year bull market!! You said 10% CORRECTION.

I'll note that there are some who believe, and justifiably so, that the new bull market actually began 10/4/11. The S&P went into bear territory that day. As far as I'm concerned, it counts. It's not as though it didn't happen. But since it didn't end up there at the close, media types disregard it. Still, even by that measure, this is a long bull market.
 
SimpleTrades said:
I've been getting bitten a lot recently. Dug deeply into the markets just before the Friday crash.
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I feel for you. Was there myself in my early days of trading.

While you were digging deeply into the markets, I pounded the SQQQ. That's the triple leveraged Nasdaq bear ETF. When you're trading as long as I've been, you get tired of being bit, and eventually you start to notice patterns in the markets that replay themselves. It takes a strong stomach to go the other way, no matter if that way is "up when it's going down" or "down when it's going up". But after you start to realize returns on those plays, you start making them with more conviction.
 
For those who are on the sidelines who want to go long but are afraid of a correction, why not sell puts until it happens? Might as well collect the premium and hope you're right.

Of course, not too right.
 
I think we are heading south until next year.

ES might go as low as 1800.
 
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