Buckle up Guys its starting

chido · Sep 12, 2016

lovethetrade said:
Chido got deceived, the machines made him think we're going to 19000 but really we're going south in a big way.

Good catch on the typo! 19000 by 2017--- not today-- LOL!!

lovethetrade · Sep 12, 2016

Yeah I was only joking. It could go anywhere at this stage but I'm guessing the sell-off on Friday occurred for reason, because there's an increase risk to the downside. I'm seeing some indicators of this on the monthly chart as well.

joezapp · Sep 12, 2016

propwarrior said:
no I am not saying that, what I am saying is you have to understand the significance of the data. For me a sample size of 50 is not enough to draw any significant conclusion. If I flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads 30 times, tails 20 times is the next flip more likely to be heads?
It is human nature to try and look for patterns and then build confirmation bias. Personally for me this kind of decision making is not robust enough.

So now you're saying that the market can be compared to a coin flip, which is to say that any day or any period has an equal chance of being up or down any given percentage. That is not so. There are MANY variables that factor into how the market performs and when, too many to even list. There are absolutely no variables in a fair coin flip. The coin flip result is completely random. The market is not.

joezapp · Sep 12, 2016

SimpleTrades said:
tired of watching it going up while I sat on the sidelines.

There is nothing wrong with sitting on cash and waiting for a buying opportunity. Impatience will eventually cost you dearly. I learned that the hard way in my early days of investing.

SimpleTrades · Sep 12, 2016

joezapp said:
There is nothing wrong with sitting on cash and waiting for a buying opportunity. Impatience will eventually cost you dearly. I learned that the hard way in my early days of investing.

I don't agree with that. You have no meaningful way to be certain that the market will correct in any meaningful way. The basic premise of your statement depends on one very important detail: At any given time that you acquire cash, the price of an interesting stock will eventually be lower. You can't make that assumption, particularly if you're buying a major index whose price only rises over the long run. Basic investing theory shows that you're better off to just jump in and hold for the long term. Of course, traders, who believe in timing the market, will disagree with this. Personally, I like to do a little of both, jumping in for the long run and timing the market. So, in my margin account, I have created a base of ETFs and stocks with the available cash which I hold for the long run. I then rely on margin if I want to make short term trades.

i960 · Sep 12, 2016

SimpleTrades said:
if you're buying a major index whose price only rises over the long run

Nikkei 225, and don't think the S&P500 is somehow so special that it's not immune.

SimpleTrades · Sep 12, 2016

i960 said:
Nikkei 225, and don't think the S&P500 is somehow so special that it's not immune.

There are exceptions to every rule. There are even exceptions to the rule I just stated in the last sentence.

I think a big chunk of the ET populations sits there waiting for that exception - the next Black Swan etc.

Anyhow, nice recovery today. 2/3 of my losses on Friday were recovered.

propwarrior · Sep 12, 2016

joezapp said:
So now you're saying that the market can be compared to a coin flip, which is to say that any day or any period has an equal chance of being up or down any given percentage. That is not so. There are MANY variables that factor into how the market performs and when, too many to even list. There are absolutely no variables in a fair coin flip. The coin flip result is completely random. The market is not.

My illustration was about sample sizes and drawing conclusions from them. Obviously a coin flip doesn't model a market. Gotta love ET lol

propwarrior · Sep 12, 2016

I will be surprised if gold does not make new annual highs by month end. Watch for the gold equity decouple. Joe Biden odds for next POTUS just got slashed.

joezapp · Sep 12, 2016

SimpleTrades said:
I don't agree with that. You have no meaningful way to be certain that the market will correct in any meaningful way. The basic premise of your statement depends on one very important detail: At any given time that you acquire cash, the price of an interesting stock will eventually be lower.

The rest of your post was sensible, in that the natural long-term trend of the market is up. But I will heartily dispute the above comment. The market ALWAYS corrects. That's what makes it efficient. Also, we were discussing the market...not an individual stock. If you have all the right reasons to buy a stock, and you have done your due diligence, anytime is a good time.