Intuition.
Buckle up Guys its starting
- Thread starter propwarrior
- Start date
In that case, I withdraw my earlier comment about no borrowing. Borrow as much as you can, and go long.
I highly doubt the "inevitable increase in interest rates". Maybe 0.25% just to show they can, but nothing meaningful.
Where will all this growth in economies come from? In Canada, the personal debt ratio just keeps getting worse and worse. If anything, growth from the future has already been taken in the present.
The only thing that can keep the markets going higher is more stimulation, and although I certainly wouldn't bet on this happening in the future, this is once again not the real growth that we had in previous decades.
Furthermore, over the coming years, technology will I believe replace more jobs, so with debt at an all time high, wages at the low point in reference to this debt, and the looming prospect of many jobs vanishing, there isn't anywhere for growth to come from. Those people buying houses now at 8-10 times their yearly family income, when the historical average was around 4, will be hard pressed to service their debts.
Immigration is about the only thing that has been adding in the growth/stimulation for Canada, but when you consider that 300k immigrants per year on roughly 35million population only leads to barely 1-2% growth, then I think there really isn't any growth.
Growth is done, sustainability is what the goal should be, but of course the markets don't work on keeping things sustainable, they need forever growth.
Because Yellen was appointed by Obama and she is not going to do anything that would jeopardize the Democrats winning the election, especially considering that it is so close.
If the FED raised rates this month or next, it would (potentially) cause the market to drop and this would have a negative impact on Hillary. But, it will be raised in February, after the Inauguration on January 20th (my birthday
).I will just make one observation about this being the "BIG one." I highly doubt it for several reasons just looking at the charts like the one I posted earlier. In addition, I will mention that I own a discretionary retail/services type of business. (Please done ask what business,...I dont wish to share that). I have been in business for the last 11 1/2 years and every time there has been a major decline in the market (>5%) I noticed that business tailed off quickly about 1-2 months before these events. In fact from 8-2015 drop and 1-2016 drop I noticed business tailing off in 7-2015 and remaining low until 9-2015 when it picked up again until 12-2015 and then another drop until mid 1-2016. Since Mid 1-2016 we have had the best year ever. About a 16% increase in sales and services. Usually services are booked about 3-4 weeks in advance in good times and only 1 week in slow times. We are currently booking services into Mid November-2016 (8 weeks out) and if someone were to request our services today they would be at least the end of October-2016 if they were lucky to find a spot otherwise its November-2016. I realize that markets are supposed to predate economic turn downs by 6-9 months but that has not held true for my business for the last 11 years. Being a discretionary (luxury) retail/service industry I can tell you my business is the first thing people stop spending money on in tough times. This year I started January NOT giving raises to staff, which I usually do in January, because I saw danger on the charts and feared the market would turn hard. It never came and in June I waited a little longer thinking maybe the pattern was broken. Well business picked up even more from June to now and I have given raises. I speak to many other business owners and they all tell me similar things. I just dont see it guys. This is a correction until proven otherwise.
I realize this is anecdotal evidence but only time will tell if I am right. I just trade what I see and I see business is good.
My 0.02
I realize this is anecdotal evidence but only time will tell if I am right. I just trade what I see and I see business is good.
My 0.02
Bingo.Because Yellen was appointed by Obama and she is not going to do anything that would jeopardize the Democrats winning the election, especially considering that it is so close.
If the FED raised rates this month or next, it would (potentially) cause the market to drop and this would have a negative impact on Hillary. But, it will be raised in February, after the Inauguration on January 20th (my birthday
I like that. This is the stuff that matters. Thnx.
It's just a market and when potatoes are worth $1 but being sold for $2 you can expect some reaction. Pension funds are forced to be invested in equities, the world is awash with cash,which flatters stock prices as share buy backs have been huge-borrowing money for free to buy rising stock-that's a nice game. Of course we have to pay for it,while banksters,brokers fat cat CEOs walk away from the carnage-but the future is mortgaged for at least 200 years
So in the last few weeks I keep reading articles that the market is due for a pull back but after all that prediction nearly all suggest the market moves higher and closes up on the year....so it seems every dip these last 8-9 years was just another buying opportunity....I just cant wait to see the moment the markets lose ground and all those who thought it was going to come back just watch in awe the market dropping even further, I mean how much more can you expect from a market that's up 220%+ in 7 years??? How much more can you squeeze out of this market...I know the central banks of the world are propping everything up but let's be realistic...aside from that I find it absolutely mind boggling that a 2% drop after a 220% rally sets off so many articles and discussions on where the markets are headed next...