Bubble World

[Algorithm]

Quote from makloda:

All these predictive statements.... The only bubble I see is a negativity bubble.

Yep there was no real estate bubble.

No credit bubble.

No bubble that has an effect upon other bubbles.



Good Luck!

 

[makloda]

Quote from S2007S:
The bull has gone very long without any type of bear market in the last 5 years. I think the bear will be here sooner than later....

Bear markets are rare events. Historically the current bull phase is just "average" in term of length. Nothing special about it, not more of a bubble than ANY OTHER EQUITY BULL market in history. Too many are blinded by losing their a** in 2001/2002.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Quote from detective:

We're living in a world of bubbles. 2008 is going to be a hellacious year for the markets, Wall St. will be able to hang on for 2007 with only 2 months left, but 2008 with rampant inflation and bubbles in worldwide equities is going to rear its ugly head.

2008 will remind many of 2000, the bubble in China, the driver for worldwide growth, popping before our eyes will set the stage for a big hit in the equity markets, while commodity prices stay high in a recessionary environment due to a lack of oil. Stagflation.

The nimble will probably be able to ride up the last couple steps upward but we're getting in precarious territory in the overseas markets where fast money is entering and will exit on any weakness.

or um maybe not

I have made a ton of money in 2007 and will make even more in 2008.

All upside ahead

werd

 

[heidegger]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

The market rallied for years while the Fed was raising the Funds target so I wouldn't assume that no cut signals a trend change. A no cut or a .25 with a hawkish statement will tube oil, buoy the dollar and any initial selloff in stocks will be bought.

Fedheads would love to tube oil, but not boost the dollar. A lower dollar solves a lot of U.S. problems. Stabilize the dollar at these levels maybe.

Assuming Bernanke et al want to avert a recession but at the same time contain inflation what's their best move Wed.?

Pabst? Anybody?

 

[stock_trad3r]

We're in a globaist low interest rate era of easy money tons of spending tons of revenue tons of connectivity network growth. Tons of buying and rising comodities and huuge overseas growth and spending. Web 2.0 tech internet global boom of social networking. Don't fight it. If you fight the smarties you will lose.

 

[kashirin]

Quote from heidegger:

Fedheads would love to tube oil, but not boost the dollar. A lower dollar solves a lot of U.S. problems. Stabilize the dollar at these levels maybe.

Assuming Bernanke et al want to avert a recession but at the same time contain inflation what's their best move Wed.?

Pabst? Anybody?

meeting Jessy Jackson he shows he doesn't want to prevent recession and he doesn't care about inflation
He wants to save his ass

It's not possible to prevent recession. He must allow housing bubble to deflate.

The only assistance home owners should get is the government must take all profits from the last 5 years from investments banks and using those money pay for rent for those who are foreclosed

 

[gnome]

Quote from kashirin:

"... It's not possible to prevent recession. He must allow housing bubble to deflate...."

Disagree. We can have higher inflation so that GPD [measured by inflated prices] is reported as "positive".

What we would ACTUALLY have is Stagflation.... unit output of goods and services being flat while prices rise. This is the Fed and Gummint's preferred option, IMO.

They won't allow it to be labeled "recession", and they won't call it "stagflaton" either.... it will be called "growth".

If [BIG FARGIN "IF"] we get recession anyway, it will be over Bernanke's money-pumping, $USD-destroying dead body.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from heidegger:

Fedheads would love to tube oil, but not boost the dollar. A lower dollar solves a lot of U.S. problems. Stabilize the dollar at these levels maybe.

Assuming Bernanke et al want to avert a recession but at the same time contain inflation what's their best move Wed.?

Pabst? Anybody?

People tend to forget that currency valuations are a two way street. All it takes is for the ECB to lean neutral and the dollar catches a bid. Given that neither the Treasury nor the Fed has made an iota of an attempt to intervene on the dollar's behalf tells me policy favors an even more competitive greenback.

I suppose if half the people think there's inflation risk and the other half think there's recession risk then it means policy is on the right track......

 

[kashirin]

Quote from gnome:

Disagree. We can have higher inflation so that GPD [measured by inflated prices] is reported as "positive".

What we would ACTUALLY have is Stagflation.... unit output of goods and services being flat while prices rise. This is the Fed and Gummint's preferred option, IMO.

They won't allow it to be labeled "recession", and they won't call it "stagflaton" either.... it will be called "growth".

If [BIG FARGIN "IF"] we get recession anyway, it will be over Bernanke's money-pumping, $USD-destroying dead body.

gnome, we probably now already have stagflation

with real inlation around 5-10% and GDP growth 4-5% not price adjusted - I don't know other word to call it

Although to deflate housing bubble through inflation we will need 50-100% compounded inflation within 2-3 years


I'm not sure even such inflationist as Bernanke would allow 20-30% YoY inflation

 

[heidegger]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

People tend to forget that currency valuations are a two way street. All it takes is for the ECB to lean neutral and the dollar catches a bid. Given that neither the Treasury nor the Fed has made an iota of an attempt to intervene on the dollar's behalf tells me policy favors an even more competitive greenback.

I suppose if half the people think there's inflation risk and the other half think there's recession risk then it means policy is on the right track......

I remember some pundit or other appearing on NBR predicting $800.00 gold because everybody who issues a currency would be "racing to the bottom" to remain competitive; his timing was about 15 years off but his scenario looks credible now (with inflation: $1500.00 gold).

Rising commodities will limit the ability of exporters to cut prices to offset currency disadvantages.
...

Inflation/recession isn't an either/or of course.