Bitcoin at $1mln would mean Litecoin should be at $250K given that total available coins are 4 to 1, all things being equal. Once people truly understand the commodity of these instruments the bubble will begin to shift.
BTC - who still laughs about it?!
- Thread starter Fx-Game
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I have got pretty into Robert Shiller's idea of narrative economics recently and I do wonder how long the Bitcoin == digital gold narrative will last.
I just don't think this is a correct narrative. The crypto equivalent to gold would actually be tether. Gold is a stable coin.
IMO the proper way to view crypto is as massively long dated LEAPS call options on the networks. At some point in the future these networks have to do more than what they are doing today. Call options are not stores of value. Stores of value don't have this level of volatility.
The price at expiration is what matters ultimately. Of course there will be massive price swings when we barely even know what the underlie is in this case.
I do love the cheap data playground that crypto has created. To me it is like perfect out of sample data playground for higher frequency equity strategies that you don't have to sell your children for the data cost.
I just don't think this is a correct narrative. The crypto equivalent to gold would actually be tether. Gold is a stable coin.
IMO the proper way to view crypto is as massively long dated LEAPS call options on the networks. At some point in the future these networks have to do more than what they are doing today. Call options are not stores of value. Stores of value don't have this level of volatility.
The price at expiration is what matters ultimately. Of course there will be massive price swings when we barely even know what the underlie is in this case.
I do love the cheap data playground that crypto has created. To me it is like perfect out of sample data playground for higher frequency equity strategies that you don't have to sell your children for the data cost.
With all due respect, I think your crypto narrative is being over complicated. If the perceived threat by crypto is to replace fiat currency, then the measure of valuations should be in fiat (hence reserve dollar). BTC and LTC as a dollar replacement commodity can be easily quantified and sustained if everyone is able to see the digital currency as replaceable and limited. 21million BTC and 80mln or so LTC. IMO fiat and crypto can and will exist together, the valuations will just need to fall into equilibrium on all sides, just like any other marketplace, thats all.
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The price of BTC is $34K, of LTC is $155. Does not look like 4 to 1 is the right ratio.
Why all the fuss? Who cares what BTC is worth?
BTC price in $ is going to blow your mind. Why? Because you can't value it and it's supporters are fanatical.
There's your answer. KISS. Hope you make a little bit on it. Best trade I ever saw.
BTC price in $ is going to blow your mind. Why? Because you can't value it and it's supporters are fanatical.
There's your answer. KISS. Hope you make a little bit on it. Best trade I ever saw.
Whatever might happens - even if BTC will go down to 3k some day - what is important is, that it won't disappear, like many sceptics prognosed before.
As long as this currency is there and can be used legally, and the more time passes by..., the more legit it will become.
This is what it is about.
Ok, compared to a real stock you are right.
But what about comparing BTC to fiat currencies? [or bonds]
What people, internationally, trust more in? States & Governments, or dezentralized, fully transparent e-cash?!
Your kids will deliver you the answer, one day.
Humankind is now like a swarm developing its own money, without the need of states and powers, that take your sovereignity.
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If people would trust crypto's more, crypto's would already have full control over the whole world as all people would switch to crypto's and do all financial transactions in crypto's. On Consumer level less than 1% of all transactuion are probably done in crypto's.
Reality is that they don't control anything at all. Crypto's are under control of a few whales; much more dangerous than fiat money.
Compare it with other inventions like mobile phones, computers, facebook... If people are attracted to these things, in no time the whole world would adopt it. The large majority in the world does not adopt crypto's.
We don't even know how integrated the crypto's are as volume can be pumped up without any problem to fake the importance of crypto's.
If your salary would be paid in bitcoins, you would have lost last night 14% of the value.
If your boss would sign a contract about your salary, in 10 months time his cost would have gone up by 10. I think stability is a huge problem with bitcoins. And if the bitcoin would become stable, 99% of people would not be interested in it as speculation, stupidity and greed are the motivation to get into bitcoins.
This is a question of time.
I must make clear: I am not talking about cryptos. - I do not believe in 2nd, 3rd row of cryptos.
[maybe one day there will be one, that will make it - then we will have the same discussion as we have now about btc, though a little different]
Yeah, it might be as you said: People will still get their payment in legal dollars, etc,
but the question is: How do they save their money (their fortune)?
BTC does not has a state behind it, that has a gross of debt in astonomic figures.
It does not suffer from that,
plus, no institution says how many btc are being produced / or must be taken from the market.
Which means = it has full sovereignity, the market (the people) are deciding its value.
It is transparent and decentral.
Only demand dictates its faith.
(Hink: People do not trust the governments that much)
No prob. I see here.
Trading style change, and with higher volume in this market, price moves will become more stable some day.
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My lordy, how far we have come from the "It is anonymous" rallying cry.