Everything you said prior to this statement I totally agree, with so I am puzzled as to why you would make this statement. I guess it is because I rode it down from its 2017 high to the 3.5K low but what is wrong with a long term hold in a volatile investment that has unlimited potential?
btc should have no problem going to 1 million
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Everything you said prior to this statement I totally agree, with so I am puzzled as to why you would make this statement. I guess it is because I rode it down from its 2017 high to the 3.5K low but what is wrong with a long term hold in a volatile investment that has unlimited potential?
There is nothing wrong with that. But just a few remarks:
- If you stay in from the 2017 high till the 3.5K, it means you have no clue when to get out. So one day BTC might go again back very low and never come back. Which would mean the failure of your investment. Each time when people lose huge amounts of money, it starts with a small move in the wrong direction. A small move that is seen as a temporary weakness/retracement. Then the loses deepen and you will wait to sell in the first upwards move. An upwards move that will never come. And that's how you finally lose everything.
- 90% drawdowns has nothing to do with harmess volatility. BTC has unlimited potential in both directions.
- how do you know that there is unlimited potential, and can you proof that with statistics and a high probability that there is unlimited potential?
- The fact that you stayed in from the 2007 top till 3.5K proofs that you are unable to proof any probablity. You don't even see the difference between a retracement and a 90% crash.
OK, Then BTC hit 65K then dropped to 30K. Where do you get out and pay Capital Gains Tax at the Maximum Rate plus a high State Tax and make a profitable re-entry? Pretty tough timing window. I don't choose to play that game. We differ in how we evaluate BTC as an asset class. I do not believe BTC has unlimited potential in BOTH directions. The world financial collapse when it happens, will push BTC well beyond 1 Million per coin. Now that One Million Dollars may not buy too much, and that is why it may then go on to Ten Million per coin.
So your concern is about cybercrimes or coins getting stolen during transactions. I think if these conditions are to be met, cryptocurrencies have to be centralized. I just can’t imagine a physically secure location without the government's intervention.
Even the conventional method is not 100% secure, but we still hold faith in it just because we know there’s an authority which is answerable.
A good article, thanks for it. But the author left out a key point...
"The world of CME crypto futures market participants has two major groups, those that are required to report their positions and the rest, which are primarily a few thousand wealthy retail traders holding one BTC futures contract or more – each contract is worth 5 BTC making the contract price range between $200,000 to $300,000 depending on price of bitcoin."
That point being that there are micro BTC contracts now. Retail will be filtering into BTC through that method. MBT is 1/50th the size of BTC.
OK.
micro BTC futures ave volume is 18k/day.
volume is growing excruciatingly slowly.
traders are simply not that really interested in trading micro btc futures.
the bid-offer spread is still bad around ten ticks.
if it gets below 3 ticks, it will be good for day trading.
Are you day-trading BTC? Are you daytrading bitcoin itself?
If not, why not use MBT as a hedge? Volume and spreads matters not there if yer swinging it.
Why stop at a million?
Price movement of any asset is supposed to be determined by supply and demand. Without a true centralized volume like an "honest" exchange to "silently but fairly" gauge overall supply and demand e.g,stocks, what's stopping the crypto market maker (or A.I. monkey) from pressing the button to beyond a million? That's the difference between exchange traded fallacy and an outright scam.
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Then what`s the point of crypto to exist if they will be exactly like the fiat but digitalized?