BTC $500k, ETH $42k, ChainLink $1,400

longshort said:
According to the data I'm seeing, less than 10 million addresses have more than 0.01 BTC. Nobody knows how much of that is artificially inflated, since a single person can have an unlimited number of addresses.
https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

Even that isn't "adoption", it's almost entirely speculation = looking to sell to the greater fool. Pretty much nobody buys or sells goods/services directly in BTC because it doesn't work well as a currency.


Using your metric, less than 1 million BTC addresses hold amounts that aren't tiny.
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They have companies specializing in chain analysis (which the US government uses for tracking and the IRS recently signed up with to track top crypto blockchains) that analyze how addresses interact with other addresses, i.e. my bitcoin wallet has over 50 addresses ranging in balances from small to several btc's, some are change-addresses auto-generated when making transactions

What has been the big trend as of late is that many of the holders use a "shared" wallet approach, aka custodial wallets

For example, Coinbase has 68 million users so let's say 50M of them have some bitcoin balance and keeping at their Coinbase account, then all the known Coinbase bitcoin wallet addresses are in actuality representing 50M bitcoin holders

Repeat the same process for PayPal who does not even allow bitcoin/crypto withdrawals. How many of the 300M PayPal users own bitcoin/cryptos. Rinse/repeat for eToro, Robinhood, Square, IBKR, etc

This is not the preferred way for owning bitcoin/cryptos, but it's the most convenient one that has brought massive amount of users to the space
 
johnarb said:
When bitcoin went to $1 on par with the good ole USD, nothing happened. When btc went to $100, nothing happened, nor when btc went to $1000, or even when btc went to $10,000 or when btc went to $50,000 where the price is very close to at this time

When btc hits $100K before eoy, nothing will happen. When btc hits $500K in 5 years nor when btc hits $1M

Nothing will happen to anyone not holding bitcoin and other cryptos, but the people who do own crypto digital assets will benefit greatly
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i hope you not serious about this post. The lone reason why we are where we are is ponzi Tethers. Fraud can go on for a while, but eventually it always pops
 
johnarb said:
When bitcoin went to $1 on par with the good ole USD, nothing happened. When btc went to $100, nothing happened, nor when btc went to $1000, or even when btc went to $10,000 or when btc went to $50,000 where the price is very close to at this time

When btc hits $100K before eoy, nothing will happen. When btc hits $500K in 5 years nor when btc hits $1M

Nothing will happen to anyone not holding bitcoin and other cryptos, but the people who do own crypto digital assets will benefit greatly
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I agree that hitting 100k will not make a difference. But I also believe that in no way will the government allow a major shift to crypto if/when the USD is suffering. I also think that once they get the CBDC (central backed digital currency) up and running, things may change. Sure, BTC can always be considered an asset class, and I agree that those who have it might very well end up doing very well in the future, but it just doesn't make sense that if for some reason we have a currency crisis in the US, the US will sit by and let crypto that is outside of their control compete along side the USD.

To me its like a homeless camp in the park. At first the city puts up with it, since these homeless people have nowhere to go. So they let them hang out and sleep, and build their tents, etc. Police even end up regularly patrolling it But then the local citizens get fed up with the crime and close proximity to their houses, and the city is forced to come in and dismantle it. You can't have homeless people paying nothing to sleep in the park and causing trouble while the tax paying citizens feel like a prisoner in their own community. Likewise, if USD starts dropping like a rock and citizens "choose" to use some other currency, I am betting on a swift reaction to eliminate these competing currencies.

If there is nobody left to buy bonds, (since everyone moves to crypto), and the FED is the only game in town, and hence the value of these bonds plummets which sends the USD plummeting, then it will be game over for alternative assets or currencies or whatever BTC and ETH want to be. But once again, I'm not against BTC or ETH, its just that if they become too successful, it will be their undoing.
 
destriero said:
I put 10% of my pretax split evenly into BTC and ETH each month, but I despise these hyperbolic piker threads.
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I think you and I both know that you have a safe trade. You have enough ammo behind your positions.

There's music for that.

 
RedDuke said:
i hope you not serious about this post. The lone reason why we are where we are is ponzi Tethers. Fraud can go on for a while, but eventually it always pops
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I don't understand what you mean. I was not discussing Tether with NoahA

USG may go after Tether when US CBDC comes out and I'll decide what to do when (if) it happens. Until then, I'll stay long cryptos
 
NoahA said:
I agree that hitting 100k will not make a difference. But I also believe that in no way will the government allow a major shift to crypto if/when the USD is suffering. I also think that once they get the CBDC (central backed digital currency) up and running, things may change. Sure, BTC can always be considered an asset class
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I don't share the same viewpoint as you. Hardly anyone in the US uses btc as currency, only in El Salvador because it's legal tender there. In the US, bitcoin is treated as property and I doubt the US will ever make btc legal tender

I am wondering how you see things based on what the price of btc is

So, you're saying btc at $10K, $50K or $100K is not going to make USD suffer, but if btc goes to $500K or $1M, then the USD will suffer/fail?

Where is the cutoff price?
 
If BTC hits $500K the US has become Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe, but not bc of $500K BTC. Ppl need to stop thinking of it as an FX cross.
 
johnarb said:
I don't share the same viewpoint as you. Hardly anyone in the US uses btc as currency, only in El Salvador because it's legal tender there. In the US, bitcoin is treated as property and I doubt the US will ever make btc legal tender

I am wondering how you see things based on what the price of btc is

So, you're saying btc at $10K, $50K or $100K is not going to make USD suffer, but if btc goes to $500K or $1M, then the USD will suffer/fail?

Where is the cutoff price?
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So its obvious that I know 1% of what you do when it comes to crypto, but I feel that its intuitive that there will be a breaking point somewhere. I know that even 50k seems insane, and yet here we are.

But to be honest, something about this doesn't seem right. If the price can just plummet like it recently did, how thin is this market? Sure you can say most coins are in cold storage, but what kind of asset is this if it can be kicked around by a small group of players? The fact that there is supposedly so much buying every week and every month, why isn't the uptrend consistent and unrelenting? It just seems like BTC can absorb supposedly so much buying by institutions and private individuals, and price doesn't move much, but on some random day, its down 20%. I do not think that it should move the way it does if there is consistent accumulation.

Clearly there is trading happening from both sides, but currently, the trading seems to be a bigger thing than the accumulation. I keep reading how there are many people who will never sell, and then I keep reading how scarce it is, how some miners event aren't selling, and yet, price has gone sideways for over a month. Real Estate is clearly something that is being accumulated and we see that reflect in the price because there is hardly a dip. But this crypto business is something different.
 
johnarb said:
So, you're saying btc at $10K, $50K or $100K is not going to make USD suffer, but if btc goes to $500K or $1M, then the USD will suffer/fail?

Where is the cutoff price?
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For me, it's not about the impact on USD, it's about what the Government wants people to do with their money.

Spend it :):):)
Save it in a bank :):)
Invest in stocks, bonds, property :):)
Stuff dollar bills under the mattress :(
Buy gold :(:(
Buy crypto :(:(:(

BTC going from $47k ($0.75tn) to $1m ($16tn) would mean an awful lot of money going where the Government doesn't want it to go.
 
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