Quote from NY0BScalper:
I have no opinion on BSC's price (outside of hoping that he'll trade with the same intensity he did on Friday so that I can make back the money I made by becoming an investor for 10 points at 43.12) but it is way too presumptuous for you to say there is "zero probability of BSC touching 38." The options market disagrees with you, and I make that remark not in the slightest bit as an attempt to suggest options traders know with any degree of accuracy the future... just to say that traders shouldn't think in terms of "zero probability," especially when a market has traded at the given price that is now "zero probability" in the recent past. BSC could trade back to $160. I really really don't think it it ever will... that, $160, I am tempted to say is zero probability. But I won't say that, and the reason is that I've lasted long enough in this game to have taken enough huge, devastating hits, all of which have taught me that when I think there's 0 probability of the price hitting a certain level, there is usually a much higher probability of that level being hit than any common human logic can dictate. If statistical analysis of that security suggests that for price to hit level X it's a 7 SD event, it may only be a 2 SD event.
From what I saw on the tape thursday (not that anyone should listen to anything I have to say about properly trading BSC - I lost 10 points in an intraday short term scalp position!), assume NOTHING and when the stock establishes a small range (not one you see on a chart - the stock moves too quickly..
just if it can't break arca .10 or nsdq .15, with high volume on both ends, and then you see it printing .17, the .20s and .25s are probably a good buy) and breaks out of it, go with that breakout and limit half your position out into strength and bang the market key on the other half once momentum shows a sign of subsiding
