Quote from illiquid:
In front of Powell's speech, the biggest immediate risk was to the upside: there was a possibility for a big spike up if he happened to reveal "smoking gun" evidence; on the other hand, if substantial evidence was lacking, the market most likely wouldn't react to the downside until it was clear his presentation was over (what if he saved the best for last, etc). Anticipating market reaction can reveal great risk/reward opportunities.
not singling you out liquid, but i just think its sensless to waste energy trying to outguess the market...just trade it how you see it as it happens, although you make a good point about danger of a spike which isnt really the saem thing, just good awareness, so i guess my .02 is you gotta be aware but not trying to outwit the market