BS market

Quote from The Kin:

Oil @ $115 and stock market soars. The dollar is collapsing and may even be forced to raise stocks. Yet stock market soars. F this BS market.

Disclaimer, I'm making money by being long, I just don't understand why.

Perhaps you are confusing short term market swings with the longer term trend.

Some wise ET'er wrote that 'trading based on what you think the market shouild do is a quick way to the poorhouse."

On the other hand if you are a long term investor you will naturally what to ignore the day to day chatter, except perhaps in choosing the most opportune entries and exits, and pay attention to broader market fundamentals.

Today is options expiration friday (the last trading day before expiration). Pretty much anything can happen and it is only logical when viewed in the light of where the options are trading and where they need to move to, and that is difficult to figure out because you seldom have all of the information you would need to reliably do that. But there is at least a tendency for prices to move to the nearest strike.

It is also good to keep in mind that stock prices can become virtually disconnected with the true worth of the underlying companies they represent.

Today might be a very good day to take some profits or lighten-up on some unproductive positions.
 
Quote from piezoe:

Some wise ET'er wrote that 'trading based on what you think the market shouild do is a quick way to the poorhouse."

It is also good to keep in mind that stock prices can become virtually disconnected with the true worth of the underlying companies they represent.

Excellent point.

And one that many "newbies" fail to understand before they've shot their wad "fighting" moves that they believe have nothing to do with fundamentals. Their is indeed, often a "disconnect".
 
Quote from Landis82:

Ever hear that the market is a "discounting" mechanism?
:p

The funny thing is how long can this argument be made?

Next I'm waiting for LEH to announce bk and rally to 52 week highs.

In daytrading its not wise to fight the market. In swing trading I use this strategy. Bought 20 more May 132 SPY Puts at .91... I'm now done... fully loaded... and waiting.

I've got a month for something to spook this drunken bull. May just take some sobering up but I'm looking for this market to have a hell of a hangover.
 
Quote from flipflopper:

The funny thing is how long can this argument be made?

Next I'm waiting for LEH to announce bk and rally to 52 week highs.

In daytrading its not wise to fight the market. In swing trading I use this strategy. Bought 20 more May 132 SPY Puts at .91... I'm now done... fully loaded... and waiting.

I've got a month for something to spook this drunken bull. May just take some sobering up but I'm looking for this market to have a hell of a hangover.

You act as if the financials are the ONLY sector that makes up the SPX. Take a look at how other heavily weighted sectors fo the SPX are doing . . . Energy, Materials, Info Technology, etc.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_500_Factsheet.pdf

Half of the earnings in the SPX come from overseas and that means that multinational corporations that are benefiting from the weaker dollar will have robust earnings ( ie. IBM, SLB, CAT, X, etc. )

It's very difficult to get in the way of a "freight-train".
The Feb. 4th high of 1395.38 is oh so close!
:)
 
Quote from Landis82:

You act as if the financials are the ONLY sector that makes up the SPX. Take a look at how other heavily weighted sectors fo the SPX are doing . . . Energy, Materials, Info Technology, etc.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_500_Factsheet.pdf

Half of the earnings in the SPX come from overseas and that means that multinational corporations that are benefiting from the weaker dollar will have robust earnings ( ie. IBM, SLB, CAT, X, etc. )

It's very difficult to get in the way of a "freight-train".
The Feb. 4th high of 1395.38 is oh so close!
:)

Don't get me wrong.... I wish you all the best on your breakout to test all time highs. I just have a different opinion.

I feel that at all time highs the fundamental valuations aren't warranted based on P/E levels, rising inflation, bubble bursting real estate prices, illiquid financial markets, slowdown in consumer spending, rising unemployment, and global slowdown.

I may be wrong about my fundamental calls on the economy but my daytrading account doesn't care. I just entered my first short of the day after scalping on the long side this morning. My intraday "market direction" indicator just went bearish for the first time today.
 
Landis, go sit down read the Beige Book. The economy is in the crapper. I will let you read how bad things really are.

Happy reading!
 
Quote from MrDODGE:

Landis, go sit down read the Beige Book. The economy is in the crapper. I will let you read how bad things really are.

Happy reading!

The funny thing about permabulls is they think 6 years of straight bullish action into the biggest blowup of the financial and real estate industries in modern history coupled with inflation should only take a couple months to resolve and resume.

It makes no difference to me how people make money or with what strategies. I don't hate bulls when I'm bearish or hate shorts when I'm bullish. I know everyone is out to make money.

Whatever rings the register for different folks has no impact on me and I wish everyone success in their own lives and pursuits.
 
How is it BS? The market thinks the worst of the write-downs are done. The market thinks earnings aren't going to be quite as bad as feared. The market thinks we have a small, short-lived slowdown/recession. Seems to make sense to me, based on the recent data from companies reporting. I don't necessarily agree, but I can see why investors are thinking that way.

If you think the market is wrong, then you are being given a golden opportunity to short. Place your bets :)
 
Quote from MrDODGE:

Landis, go sit down read the Beige Book. The economy is in the crapper. I will let you read how bad things really are.

Happy reading!

Too bad we're not trading the Beige Book. And the market doesn't happen to give a rat's ass about the Beige Book at the moment.
 
Quote from DeepFried:

Too bad we're not trading the Beige Book. And the market doesn't happen to give a rat's ass about the Beige Book at the moment.

Exactly and this little episode has taught me a great lesson.

I always try to identify if the market is trending or range bound and act accordingly.

Now I've added the need to identify if the market is reacting to news or ignoring it. This little revelation will pay off nicely for me.

Everyday is a lesson and adds polish to your trading style.
 
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