Brutual sell off coming?

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from makloda:

If inflation was out of control, wouldn't long bonds be down in the dumpster and the ten year would be yielding 12, 13 or 16% like in the late 70s as wage inflation was rampant and fueling price increases across the board? Unit labor cost increases were insane (+10%) in 1979 while productivity growth was negative. All references comparing today to what Volcker was dealing with are baseless IMO.

P.S. Yes yes I know it's all a big conspiracy as the Fed, the Chinese and Wall Street are manipulating the 10y & 30y bonds to display artificially low yields... YAWN!

Where were yields in the early 70's? Treasury yields don't reflect the inflation rate but rather they measure sentiment of future Fed action. The 10 year is just 3600 Fed Fund yields strung together.

I suggest you look over every historical Treasury chart you can. Bonds can go from 5% to 7% in weeks when the time is right.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from intradaybill:

Good point. But remember it only takes a couple of weeks of selling bonds to get to that yield range.

Jeez! Somehow I skipped your post and we said the same thing!

 

[gobar]

look @ his portfolio...

he is up 302 k ..

 

[brocklanders]

What broker is he using? Those account screens look pretty spiffy.

edit: I'll answer my own question. ThinkorSwim. How are they for futures these days? I checked awhile back and they were still lacking some key markets.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from Landis82:

Interesting.
Looking for DEFLATION.

This ought to throw a nice "curve-ball" to all of the the "Helicopter" Ben Bashers who think that inflation is out of control.

I can't stand Bernanke, as you know.

Let me know when we get Bernanke's self-proposed desired core CPI of nothing greater than 2%.


In fact, Bernanke was pretty upset when core CPI was running at even 2.3% to 2.8%.

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6446

Specifically, Bernanke noted that "at annual rates, core inflation as measured by the consumer price index excluding food and energy prices was 3.2% over the past three months and 2.8% over the past six months. For core inflation based on the price index for personal consumption expenditures, the corresponding three-month and six-month figures are 3 % and 2.3%. These are unwelcome developments."


I wonder what he's planning to do now that we're @ 9.8% headline.

'The Helicopter Ben Bernanke Story: The Saga of 4 Rate Cuts Too Many.'

 

[Allspread]

Quote from PohPoh:



Inflation will be and remain out of control until we get a Volker type Fed chairman who will sacrifice the politics and the Wall Streeters for the benefit of the American people...

Then I'd consider voting Democratic, because if John McCain is elected that guarantees there is no way that happens.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from Allspread:

Then I'd consider voting Democratic, because if John McCain is elected that guarantees there is no way that happens.

Paul Volcker raised rates to 20% crush inflation, knowing that it would cost the man who appointed him to his position as the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jimmy Carter, the election in 1980.