Brother, Florida Is Slipping Into A Depression
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
IMO the former bubble states are still quite far from a bottom. Florida is obviously not as overpriced as it was, but it's got further to fall, ditto Vegas. California is half way through its bust, stay well away until the state defaults and you get street riots. Chicago, Boston, and the most overpriced of all, NYC are about to drop off the precipice too.
In Europe, London is kinda similar to NYC/CHicago - totally fucked, a down 25% year coming in 2009.
In Europe, London is kinda similar to NYC/CHicago - totally fucked, a down 25% year coming in 2009.
I hate to speak of family, and usually don't, but my uncle is a big shot in S.Florida.
I could care less. I only mention this because it lends credence to his credibility, and I rely on his advice before doing anything down there (or anywhere, really).
At any rate, he knows pretty much everything there is to known about Florida RE and also the financial state of the municipalities down there (he retired from a prominent position at New York Life).
After talking to him this morning, and in conjunction my friend who works bankruptcy/commercial workouts for a 550 lawyer firm in Miami, all I have to say is that Florida is very bad, and will get much worse. This is especially true of inland Florida, as someone mentioned, and if people thing coastal properties will be less susceptible, they don't have a clue as to what carrying costs in the form of massive taxes, maintenance association fees and taxes are on waterfront properties (even on the Intercoastal).
The crime wave is already hitting Florida, and in more areas than Miami.
A lot fo these abandoned houses that are less than a year old, and basically exist in ghost town subdivisions are being used as grow houses right now.
If you go down to Florida, and see people with terrible rashes all over, don't assume it's a health problem or genetic. They're getting reactions to the shit needed to grow pot inside enclosed areas.
Also, certain parts of Sacramento, Vegas (and Henderson), Phoenix and Tuscon are looking this horrific - Neutron bomb-esque.
Quote from marketsurfer:
Auction winners by default paid the maximum market price.
therefore, hopefully the market improves-- or tons of these foreclosure vultures will be out of luck.
surf
That's the problem. A lot of those vultures are going to be food for other vultures.
The inventory levels are still building, despite new permit pulls being next to nothing. It is crazy insane.
Here's what I don't get though:
(from the original post)
Gloria Chilson standing outside of the house in Lehigh Acres, Fla., where she lived for 18 years until it was foreclosed.
âI knew it was coming,â said Gloria Chilson, 56, the former owner of the house,...
If she bought the house 18 years ago:
1. It was probably very cheap at the time (doesnt' look like too much of a house to me - what was it in 1990? - $50K?)
2. The house can go to $0 - doesn't mean it would be foreclosed on if she could make the payments.
What were her monthly payments? A few hundred?
Did she spend too much money on other stuff when she could have been paying off her house? They never want to mention little details like that.
JJacksET4
(from the original post)
Gloria Chilson standing outside of the house in Lehigh Acres, Fla., where she lived for 18 years until it was foreclosed.
âI knew it was coming,â said Gloria Chilson, 56, the former owner of the house,...
If she bought the house 18 years ago:
1. It was probably very cheap at the time (doesnt' look like too much of a house to me - what was it in 1990? - $50K?)
2. The house can go to $0 - doesn't mean it would be foreclosed on if she could make the payments.
What were her monthly payments? A few hundred?
Did she spend too much money on other stuff when she could have been paying off her house? They never want to mention little details like that.
JJacksET4
Writing about the ghetto of Ft. Meyers and stating that 1 out of 4 Floridians are on food stamps would be as disingenuous as writing from Palm Beach and saying 1 in 4 Floridians are on the Forbes 400.
I live in Ft. Lauderdale-many ET'ers live within a 35 mile radius of me from Miami to West Palm Beach. I follow real estate valuations in SoFla pretty closely. Prices of single family homes in normal white neighborhoods-who gives a fuck about ghetto foreclosures-are down about a third from 2005. IOW's homes that were a million are 650k type of thing. Condo's are down perhaps 40% and falling-there's probably 1000 hi-rises in these 3 counties. Mucho supply.
As someone else noted-the closer you are to the ocean the higher the prices. As a rule of thumb east of U.S.1 throughout the east coast of Florida is VERY, VERY safe. Despite a few shootings in Miami the past couple of weeks crime rates down here have been falling hard for a decade. In October Miami had it's first month without a homicide since 1954. Like anywhere else, Chicago's North Side vs. South, Compton vs. Westwood, Upper East Side vs. the Bronx-there's wide differences in price, demographics, crime and lifestyle between a shitty SoFla neighborhood and a "good" neighborhood. Like most urban areas, white folks with a little money are shoe-boxed into relatively small areas where one still must pay a premium for insulation from the crap.
As my friends here know-I'm a fractal trader. I'm constantly readjusting or seeking the dominant fractal, i.e. are stocks in a 1974 or 1938 profile etc. South Florida real estate-at least for now-reminds me of the 1989-1994 Los Angeles fractal. Prices in L.A. county slid 42% during that period. It took an additional half dozen years for prices to bounce. I suspect Florida still has a year or two of depreciation with sideways action through 2015. One bull item here compared to Phoenix or Vegas-rents are not bargain basement cheap.
Like California, Florida has one long term advantage. Climate. And unlike California it has one other advantage. No income tax and the homestead act.......
I live in Ft. Lauderdale-many ET'ers live within a 35 mile radius of me from Miami to West Palm Beach. I follow real estate valuations in SoFla pretty closely. Prices of single family homes in normal white neighborhoods-who gives a fuck about ghetto foreclosures-are down about a third from 2005. IOW's homes that were a million are 650k type of thing. Condo's are down perhaps 40% and falling-there's probably 1000 hi-rises in these 3 counties. Mucho supply.
As someone else noted-the closer you are to the ocean the higher the prices. As a rule of thumb east of U.S.1 throughout the east coast of Florida is VERY, VERY safe. Despite a few shootings in Miami the past couple of weeks crime rates down here have been falling hard for a decade. In October Miami had it's first month without a homicide since 1954. Like anywhere else, Chicago's North Side vs. South, Compton vs. Westwood, Upper East Side vs. the Bronx-there's wide differences in price, demographics, crime and lifestyle between a shitty SoFla neighborhood and a "good" neighborhood. Like most urban areas, white folks with a little money are shoe-boxed into relatively small areas where one still must pay a premium for insulation from the crap.
As my friends here know-I'm a fractal trader. I'm constantly readjusting or seeking the dominant fractal, i.e. are stocks in a 1974 or 1938 profile etc. South Florida real estate-at least for now-reminds me of the 1989-1994 Los Angeles fractal. Prices in L.A. county slid 42% during that period. It took an additional half dozen years for prices to bounce. I suspect Florida still has a year or two of depreciation with sideways action through 2015. One bull item here compared to Phoenix or Vegas-rents are not bargain basement cheap.
Like California, Florida has one long term advantage. Climate. And unlike California it has one other advantage. No income tax and the homestead act.......
Is that in the article?
I am asking because if it is, it was covered.
If it wasn't, you're speculating, which is fine, but don't assume the coverage wasn't fair.