Broke-- The New American Dream

Quote from GermanTrader:

I look forward to seeing the movie.

Trading is only comparable to poker if both are played with a million at the same table.

Poker with a dealer and six players has far more limited probabilities than a million isolated traders, each trading at different instances and thus trading with uniquely independent probabilities, since they change with every tick. In poker, only what is likely to come from X numbers of card decks can be considered. Not even system trading can match tick-for-tick/second-for-second, given the delays inherent in global communications. The probabilities are beyond any trader or computer knowing with so many greedy and fearful traders pushing buttons in their own way and own time. Even limiting the scale of those probabilities, by shrinking the pool to six traders in a room, doesn't sufficiently limit the probabilities to compare to poker. The scaling prohibits apples-to-apples comparison.

I don't see the comparison, even after reviewing the above.

Further example? They both need an "edge". You can say that is not similar, and I can agree to disagree. But of course, all will make more sense when film is out!
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

what is an average joe, anyway? money doesn't discriminate

True.
 
Quote from Trend Following:

Further example? They both need an "edge". You can say that is not similar, and I can agree to disagree. But of course, all will make more sense when film is out!

Nice Photoshop work on the sheep! Did you use FilmLook on the trailer?
 
Quote from Trend Following:

The evidence I have seen doesn't support that Lederer, Ferguson, Wasicka, etc. have made their nice stakes from bluffing.

A poker player who never bluffs can never make a long-run profit against good competition.
 
Quote from Mecro:

You're trying to put some of the blame on the "Average Joe" in regards to the financial crisis. That is preposterous and illustrates that you do not understand the situation.

If you are trying to make the Average Joe take responsibility for his/her own debacle, that's different. But that's not an issue, mortgage defaults & foreclosures are a part of the real estate industry.

The recent mortgage defaults have little to do with the current financial crisis. They simply unveil the charade & the scam at a faster rate.

Many average joes elected the Bush administration, and all of Congress, which presided over this mess. Some average joes bought houses at absurdly inflated values, taking insane financial risks and destabilizing the entire financial system in the process.

Most average joes are innocent of blame, but a good chunk (maybe 25%) are guilty to some degree.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Does a 3 year old have greed? thats a super poor analogy.

the greed of the average joe is a key cause of the situation.

if average joe wasn't greedy for a mc mansion, there would be no mortgage broker to push for the liar loan, on up the chain.

the economic illiteracy and understanding cause/effect, on this board, is eye opening!

surf

Only 3% of houses turn over per year. Even if the bubble started in 2002, that's only 4-5 years = 12-15% of the housing stock. Many speculators bought multiple houses. So, most likely, only about 5-10% of average joes bought a single house during the bubble. That leaves 90-95% as completely innocent of any direct contribution to the housing bubble.

There's the issue of apathetic voting for representatives who let this all go on, but then you can't apportion full blame on average joes for that. Voting for someone doesn't mean you approve of everything they do.
 
Quote from bali_survivor:

Surf

we need only to look at how many here do not have a clue about trading and then how do we expect that the average Joe has a clue where the economy is heading? He only "listens" to the experts that say that now is the best time to buy because you can make a killing in the real estate.

It is just the same: the 3 year old does not know the risks of the activities he is engaged in, same same as the average Joe dabbling in investing does not know the risks either....

So what is so hard about the analogy?

ps
a three year old also has a "I want (or 'me too') "

Maria

There are countless books out there which explain the basic principles of real estate investment. Countless people warned of a real estate bubble. Simple arithmetic meant that any average joe with high school math could have worked out the risks they were taking with borrowed money. Up until recently, 30% deposit for landlord properties was the norm, and 20% for owner-occupied.

Borrowing is a solemn moral and financial obligation. Anyone who borrows therefore has a serious duty to know what they are doing.

"Average Joes" who went all-in with nothing down, were reckless, negligent, irresponsible gamblers, and turned into immoral deadbeats and con-artists whose word was worth nothing. 100 years ago they would have been thrown into debtors prison. Unlike 3 year olds they have moral conscience, intelligence, and a 1st world education. No one forced them to take out absurdly risky loans they could not afford. Only greed made them do that. This is not normal people who just wanted to own a modest home - it is greedy gits who wanted to get rich with no effort on other peoples' dime.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Does a 3 year old have greed? thats a super poor analogy.

You are assuming that everyone got a house for turning it quickly over for profit. Guess what? Most people just wanted to participate in the American Dream (specially the illegal Mexican strawberry harvester) and own a house. So the analogy stands, it was the banks' fault who should have known better that most applicants won't be able to pay the mortgages.

You see you can actually LIVE in a house, it is not like a stock or a goldbar. :)
 
Quote from Pekelo:

You are assuming that everyone got a house for turning it quickly over for profit. Guess what? Most people just wanted to participate in the American Dream (specially the illegal Mexican strawberry harvester) and own a house. So the analogy stands, it was the banks' fault who should have known better that most applicants won't be able to pay the mortgages.

You see you can actually LIVE in a house, it is not like a stock or a goldbar. :)


Greed comes in many forms.

Greed for money/quick profit is only one type of Greed.

Greed will also make you buy a bigger house to out do your friends, neighbors. this has nothing to do with profit.

Pure greed for things, is different than greed for capital.

there are homes the strawberry dude could afford--however, greed forced him to buy more than he could afford.... once again nothing to do with profit.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Greed comes in many forms.

Greed for money/quick profit is only one type of Greed.

Greed will also make you buy a bigger house to out do your friends, neighbors. this has nothing to do with profit.

Pure greed for things, is different than greed for capital.

there are homes the strawberry dude could afford--however, greed forced him to buy more than he could afford.... once again nothing to do with profit.

surf

You are forgetting that he was told by "experts" that he could afford it.

( He did not have the knowledge that he could not afford it...)
 
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