Bride of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

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Technically, this belongs in the Ghost thread, but given the subject of the conversation here, I'm posting it here instead.

This is mostly something to think about. I was doodling this morning trying to place the action in context, and I found that if I treated that one bar last October as an outlier, then the channel became nice and tidy. If I included it, everything shifted downward, and the channel didn't even follow the trend any longer. I wondered if this might be a rationalization, but then price bounced right off this line this morning, so it appears that this was the correct thing to do.

FWIW:

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dbphoenix said:
The problem with that was the depth of the retracement after hitting 84, all the way back to 57. If one then waited for a move above 84, he'd have to be very patient and very accommodating to hold a long. It all looks great in hindsight. In real time, not so much.

There are other days.

Edit: And price gets turned back at the halfway level of the 3530 to 3460 downdraft. Anyone for grind?
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Hi DbPhoenix,

I did not hold through the pullback. I posted that trade as I was getting stopped out - I bought 63.50 around 9:37/38 and sold at 78.25 around 9:48/9. I am not at my trading computer (I bought myself a fancy computer that is just for trading - call me spoiled), so I can't check for sure, but I do not think we saw 57 trade during the pullback from 84, did we?
 
fortydraws said:
Hi DbPhoenix,

I did not hold through the pullback. I posted that trade as I was getting stopped out - I bought 63.50 around 9:37/38 and sold at 78.25 around 9:48/9. I am not at my trading computer (I bought myself a fancy computer that is just for trading - call me spoiled), so I can't check for sure, but I do not think we saw 57 trade during the pullback from 84, did we?
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Sorry, it should be 67, and it's too late to change it. Thanks for catching it.
 
fortydraws said:
I don't have my charts or TWS on this computer, but my exit was around 10:05 AM and the exit price was 97.25 or 98.50, or somewhere around there. I held through the hinge, of course, and since I was long from well below the mid-point of the hinge, I was willing to sit through the first big pullback after the BO from the hinge.

I got to say that I do not do much anymore as far reading and studying and taking notes and keeping my journal. I'm pretty much good where I am right now. I keep it simple - I look for the trade off the open, I trade reversals from S/R levels, and I trade retrace entries when the market gets to trending. Once you get it, I guess you get it. I did more studying during that year or so than I did the whole six years I was in high school.

That's a joke, you know. I never did finish high school.

Ok, I did finish high school. But I never did the kind of homework for that diploma as I did learning to trade.

Work hard, but keep it simple. It is the simple stuff that makes you the money.

For what it's worth, I guess you could say that I now understand what DbPhoenix says when he says that he finds trading boring. It really kinda is. But it pays well :cool:
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Fortydraws: Thanks a lot for your sharing. Very helpful!
 
dbphoenix said:
The problem with that was the depth of the retracement after hitting 84, all the way back to 57. If one then waited for a move above 84, he'd have to be very patient and very accommodating to hold a long. It all looks great in hindsight. In real time, not so much.

There are other days.

Edit: And price gets turned back at the halfway level of the 3530 to 3460 downdraft. Anyone for grind?
More...

DB:
I didnot buy the reversal but BO. 9:47:54 @83 and hold the deep PB (one time adverse move), then exit 8:15:05 @ 83.25. Very stressful to hold through deep PB. Only pain, no gain.
 
dbphoenix said:
The problem with that was the depth of the retracement after hitting 84, all the way back to 67. If one then waited for a move above 84, he'd have to be very patient and very accommodating to hold a long. It all looks great in hindsight. In real time, not so much.

There are other days.

Edit: And price gets turned back at the halfway level of the 3530 to 3460 downdraft. Anyone for grind?
More...

And here we are at the midpoint of the upmove from 3460 to 3495.

It's tempting to ascribe all of this to geometry since it's so regular. One can then draw all sorts of lines and patterns and dodecahedrons and bunnies and so forth. But it makes more sense to ascribe it to AMT and mean reversion. This is the level that we keep coming back to, after all.

And I changed the 57 to 67.
 
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