Bride of If You Can Draw A Straight Line

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Quote from dbphoenix:

If one can't stand losing more than a tick, he shouldn't be trading at all, at least not yet. As for demanding a reward, that's not possible. The reward is whatever the market chooses to give.
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But what if one can stand losing 4 ticks? Then trading with 1/4 is as if one were to be standing 1 tick with regular size?
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

Imbalance between demand and supply leads to a line in the price-time space. Is that the main point? Could the imbalance lead to other curves such as parabola etc. What is the meaning to the imbalance when the curve is a line?
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I get the feeling that you haven't read these threads. Start with the first post and the seventh and go from there.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

But what if one can stand losing 4 ticks? Then trading with 1/4 is as if one were to be standing 1 tick with regular size?
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Ditto my previous post. It isn't about ticks; it's about exiting the trade when it's wrong. If you're interested in this, I suggest you read the first thirteen posts in the "Son" thread.
 
Quote from niko:

Regarding your chart, the red SL is way too far away from price for my taste. The long entry would have been activated around 99 at 9:15 or so with a tighter line.

I think also that given the parabolic rise of price after that time, a new and tighter DL would be in place.

If you tighten the lines, the story will change dramatically, give it a try.
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Okay, thanks for the input. This discussion has been helpful. This chart is quite old, and my lines are a lot more accurate presently. It's difficult to say, but I think I would probably long at 99 given the chance if I were presented with the same situation real time with my present understanding.

However, I probably would've exited that one around 20 for a B/E trade, not much different from the first time. My squeamishness at the time which caused me to wait until the break of the red line formed at ~8:50 chart time ended up making things a bit more difficult than they had to be.

I agree that a long at the first sign of power shift with the intent to exit sooner rather than later if the red line rebuffs buyers again would definitely be the smarter way to play it.

This discussion has answered my question though. I have been trying to reduce the loss % beyond what is practical or helpful to do in order to avoid "failure". With a clear understanding of price action, there is nothing to be afraid of in regards to earlier entries and reacting accordingly to the unfolding circumstances, whatever they may be.

This conversation has been very useful in pointing me towards the next adjustment that I need to make. The journey continues...
 

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Quote from llIHeroic:

Okay, thanks for the input. This discussion has been helpful. This chart is quite old, and my lines are a lot more accurate presently. It's difficult to say, but I think I would probably long at 99 given the chance if I were presented with the same situation real time with my present understanding.

However, I probably would've exited that one around 20 for a B/E trade, not much different from the first time. My squeamishness at the time which caused me to wait until the break of the red line formed at ~8:50 chart time ended up making things a bit more difficult than they had to be.

I agree that a long at the first sign of power shift with the intent to exit sooner rather than later if the red line rebuffs buyers again would definitely be the smarter way to play it.

This discussion has answered my question though. I have been trying to reduce the loss % beyond what is practical or helpful to do in order to avoid "failure". With a clear understanding of price action, there is nothing to be afraid of in regards to earlier entries and reacting accordingly to the unfolding circumstances, whatever they may be.

This conversation has been very useful in pointing me towards the next adjustment that I need to make. The journey continues...
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Try not to extend the lines once they are rotated and see if it helps. Besides, once you stop drawing lines (and you do it in your head) those ''lines'' won't be easily imaginable.
 
Quote from Gringo:

But you are forgetting that not taking that first entry you might miss the entire move if price just drops from there. Even if you are wrong, how much are you going to lose? 1.5 points max, and even that barely when you learn to hold your nerves.
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I believe what Gringo mentioned here is pretty essential.

First, if the trade is there - and maybe also within the right context - one has to take it. Specially within the active hours there might not be another entry opportunity as well.

Second, and that is really king for me is the process of gaining the ability to cut the trade with a loss one can stomach easily. 1.5 points is really a good benchmark here. If it goes against you it most of the time does not do it rushing through at once. It goes against you, then retraces a bit. And if your decide that it might be cheaper to reenter if the facts are changing again, you can get out even with less ticks. The thing is - as DB has said in the other threads - one has to stay active and don't just let the market take out the stop order.

Then there is nothing to stop you from implementing that "positive expectancy thinking", which I believe enables a lot more than the ability of taking trades. I reduces the stress factor and leads and maybe leaves this discipline stuff just a topic for the various trading psychology threads.

Being in this process myself, I saw the effects yesterday where I had my best day so far - with 4 winners and 3 losers...

Btw, thanks DB for the great posts about supply and demand - very good how you pinpoint the basics.
 
It's been over a year since we flirted with the top of this trend channel and it took six days for buyers to yield. So don't be lulled into complacency. Stay on your toes.
 
So, buyers couldn´t take prices higher just at the place the oracle told us, and now we are out of the TC and looks like we are eager to keep on going down.

I still see some trouble ahead for bears and my point of interest 10 minutes from the open is 68 where buyers have been showing up to kill the bears party since last friday.
 
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