BRIC - the new emerging world superpower

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July 15, 2012

SouthAmerica: Today Europeans and Americans are entering sham marriages to get Brazilian Visas.

Business Insider – July 10, 2012
Desperate Europeans Are Entering Sham Marriages To Get Brazilian Visas
http://www.businessinsider.com/desp...-sham-marriages-to-get-brazilian-visas-2012-7

Being young and European right now can be pretty bleak, with the average EU youth unemployment rate standing at 22.4% — and rates in Spain verging on a Great Depression-like 51%.
Unsurprisingly, a lot of young Europeans want to move abroad, but moving abroad isn't always easy — or even legal.

This report in Brazilian newspaper Folha De S. Paulo shows the lengths young Europeans are going to to get a Visa — marriage, temporary apartment moves, a few thousand dollars payment to a bride.

It's not easy but its the best option for many of those who want to get a permanent visa for Brazil, and it seems like a lot of people want to work in Brazil, where unemployment rates sit currently at 5.8%.

"I’m a bit afraid, but I know three Germans in Rio and an American in São Paulo who did the same," 31-year-old Spanish student tells Folha De S.Paulo. "I could look for a job in Germany, where I was before I lost my job. But Europe is getting worse and worse, while the situation here is just the opposite.”

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How's that Brazilian miracle coming along now that iron ore prices are collapsing? Seems you are suddenly not as smart anymore.
 
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September 7, 2012

SouthAmerica: China is working on one more step regarding the replacement of the US dollar as the main world currency...


Escobar: US wants Pentagon patrol in Asia via allies – September 5, 2012

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/bX52E69XBnI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


State Secretary Hillary Clinton's in the Chinese capital for talks, but her visit comes amid rising diplomatic tensions. Beijing has warned Washington to stay out of the country's territorial disputes with several other nations off the Chinese coast. The Communist state has threatened to use force to defend its claims to a chain of islands there. Clinton says America's position is neutral, but Beijing has accused Washington of meddling in the region's affairs.

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How's that Brazilian/BRIC economic miracle coming along?

Seems you are having the same problems rather than showing us how to do it as you seem to think.

Wonder if there is any correlation with Iron ore prices?

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/429b641c-fe88-11e1-8028-00144feabdc0.html

Brazil liquidates two banks amid slowdown

By Samantha Pearson in São Paulo

Brazil’s central bank has liquidated two of the country’s lenders in what is estimated to be the nation’s biggest bank collapse in seven years, as the sharp economic slowdown and stricter regulation put a strain on the industry.
 
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September 15, 2012

SouthAmerica: Reply to Mokwit

Brazil is doing fine, and moving along just as planned, despite the QE&#8734; game that Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve is playing which also affect and have an impact in the emerging markets around the world including Brazil.

If you have been reading my postings here on ET, and my comments on Brazzil magazine then you would know that when I was calling for a devaluation 30 and later 45 percent of the real against the US dollar that was to bring the ratio to US$ 1 = R$ 2.00 to protect Brazilian manufacturing and the tourism industry in Brazil.

Since December 2008 when the Selic interest rate was 13.66 percent I was calling for the Brazilian Central Bank to lower it to around 8 percent – then in the last year and half I have been calling for the Selic interest rate to be reduced to 7 percent.

My suggestion for the level of exchange rate and also for the Selic interest rate have been right on the money, since as of Friday September 14, 2012 the exchange rate of the real versus the US dollar was: US$ 1 = R$ 2.01 and the Selic interest rate is 7.5 percent.

As I mentioned above the “QE to infinity” the latest game that Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have started playing will affect the economy of the emerging markets.

The Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega, needs to adjust Brazilian monetary regulation to counter attack Ben Bernanke's move in the current “Currency Wars” to be able to keep the “Hot Money” away from the Brazilian economy – and continue with sound economic and financial policies in Brazil.


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New Vietnam in South America
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3615697&highlight=Financial+Times#post3615697

September 4, 2012

SouthAmerica: Quoting from this FT article: "Unlike China and India, Brazil’s growth story has been more about income redistribution than rapid expansion of gross domestic product. This has led to a ballooning of the lower middle class by nearly 60 per cent between 2003 and 2011, according to Professor Marcelo Côrtes Neri of the Getulio Vargas Foundation, an academic institution. Their numbers are set to grow another 12 per cent by 2014."


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Central Banks and the US Dollar
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...402&highlight=Selic+interest+rate#post3613402


August 31, 2012

SouthAmerica: Americans are obsessed with economic growth, and they don't understand that in Brazil they have a low growth rate, but the economy is being restructured to lift the boats of millions of Brazilians into the middle class. The goal in Brazil is to improve the quality of life for the largest number of the population in Brazil.

In the last 12 years the standard of living improved to over 30 million people in Brazil, as they moved up from complete destitution and poverty to the ranks of middle class. During the same period Americans receiving foodstamps in the United States increased from 19 million people when Bill Clinton left the government in January 2001 to almost 50 million people in 2012.

In the last 12 years the Brazilian economic system helped lift the boats of over 30 million people to a better standard of living in Brazil – in contrast the United States economy sunk the boats of over 30 million Americans sending them to the poor house in complete destitution.

The enclosed article said: “On Wednesday, the central bank slashed its key overnight rate by a half-percentage point, the latest in year-long easing cycle aimed at stirring a turnaround. The government has seized this as an opportunity to bring down Brazil's sky-high rates. The Selic rate has fallen to a record low 7.5% from 12.5% in August 2011.”

For over one year I have been writing that the Brazilian Central bank should reduce the Selic rate all the way down to 7 % - and with the latest interest rate reduction we are almost there.

But if the ECB and Ben Bernanke at the Fed continue playing games with the economy, and Ben Bernanke continue the QE4, QE5, QE6 and so on....Then the Brazilian Central banker should reduce the Selic rate in Brazil even further to 6 % or even 5 % to keep up with the race to the bottom along with Euroland, and the United States.


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Central Banks and the US Dollar
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...409&highlight=Selic+interest+rate#post2998409

November 1, 2010

SouthAmerica: In my opinion, on Wednesday when Ben Bernanke announces the next wave of QE2, then Finance Minister Guido Mantega should also announce a 30 percent devaluation of the Real, and adopt a fixed rate currency system pegged to a basket of currencies including the US dollar and the Chinese yuan – a program designed to stop the “Hot Money” from going into the Brazilian market to blow all kinds of bubbles in Brazil.

There's nothing wrong with this strategy, since the 2 countries with the 2 largest economies in the world are not playing a fair game in the international monetary arena, and Brazil should play the game according to their rules.

If having a currency system pegged to the US dollar is good for China, it should also be good for Brazil. And since these 2 countries are very important for the Brazilian economy, then Brazil should first devalue its currency by 30 percent, then adopt a fixed rate currency system pegged to a basket of currencies including the US dollar and the Chinese yuan.

And neither country has the right to complain anything to Brazil if Brazil adopts this currency strategy, since this strategy is designed to protect Brazilian manufacturers, the tourism industry in Brazil, and to keep the “Hot Money” from blowing bubbles inside the Brazilian economy.

After Brazil follow these steps, Henrique Meirelles at the Central Bank should take action and reduce the Selic interest rate in Brazil in the coming months to a level around 8 percent or even lower.

And don't forget to put a penalty in place for when the “Hot Money” starts to leave Brazil in a stampede – make these guys pay on the way out for the damage that their actions will cause to the Brazilian economy.


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I Love Brazil
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=63234&perpage=6&pagenumber=32

April 9, 2011

SouthAmerica: Today when I was reading an article published on the Financial Times (UK) “Speculators send Brazil's real soaring to new heights” - I was shaking my head and wondering why they can't grasp in Brazil that China and the United States is playing a different game than Brazil.

In this game Brazil has become the “Patsy” - as a result of QE1, QE2, and very soon QE3 and so forth where the United States is exporting inflation to Brazil, and the speculators are pushing the real up with the carry trade between the real vs. the US dollar and the yuan.


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In the last 2 years the real appreciated against the US dollar by 45 percent – and now the speculators are going to take Brazil for a ride.

Today Brazil has become the “Patsy” and Brazil it's in the business of exporting jobs out of Brazil and undermining the foundations of the Brazilian economy.

This foreign exchange policy of the Brazilian government is creating a major problem for the Brazilian economy, because is increasing the cost of doing business in Brazil and products made in Brazil is becoming very expensive, and they are also putting the tourism industry out of business in Brazil. Brazil is becoming a very expensive place for people from other countries to go for vacation.

It is an “economic war” and Brazil in retaliation is shooting blanks.

China and the United States are not going to change their game until the entire house of cards collapse, but in the meantime I wonder what is necessary for the Brazilian government to wake up and start playing in the same game that the US and China are playing.

Maybe the real exchange rate has to appreciate another 50 percent and Brazil has to export another 200,000 or 300,000 thousand manufacturing jobs out of Brazil, and have a real crisis in the tourism industry in Brazil, and inflation to go back to the levels that most Brazilians would prefer to forget – the level of the old bad days.

People finally started to grasp that the US economy and financial system is collapsing just like the Soviet Union – and the only reason they did not have a massive meltdown is because of the status of the US dollar as the main global reserve currency.


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Guido Mantega anuncia novas medidas na área cambial. Parte II – April 7, 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yym5Og_ce0s


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Here is what Guido Mantega next move should be to fight and defend the Brazilian economy on this “Economic” and “Currency War.”

Finance Minister Guido Mantega should announce ASAP a 40 percent devaluation of the Real, and adopt a fixed rate currency system pegged to a basket of currencies including the US dollar and the Chinese yuan – a program designed to stop the “Hot Money” from going into the Brazilian market to blow all kinds of bubbles in Brazil, and also to get under control the constant currency destabilizing effect that serve as a torpedo to destroy the foundations of the Brazilian economy.

This strategy is designed to protect Brazilian manufacturers, the tourism industry in Brazil, and to keep the “Hot Money” from blowing more speculative bubbles inside the Brazilian economy.

There's nothing wrong with this strategy, since the 2 countries with the 2 largest economies in the world are not playing a fair game in the international monetary arena, and Brazil should start playing the game according to their rules.

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October 25, 2012

SouthAmerica: Latin America from the US perspective...


October 25, 2012

President Obama and Mitt Romney forget Latin America - Once a focal point for Washington, neighbors to the south hardly figure in Barack Obama or Mitt Romney's plans for president
http://www.voxxi.com/obama-romney-forget-latin-america/

LIMA, Peru — For a region historically regarded as the United States’ “backyard,” Latin America has been notable in the 2012 race for the White House only by its near total absence.

During Monday night’s presidential debate, Barack Obama pretty much summed up his perspective on Latin America with the remark: “Our alliances have never been stronger; in Asia, in Europe, in Africa.”

After a pregnant pause, he then moved swiftly on to talk about how his administration was working on “unprecedented military and intelligence cooperation” with Israel to contain Iran.

The sighs from this corner of the world were almost audible.

Critics of the president argue that that rhetorical misstep is an accurate reflection of Obama’s minimal level of engagement with Latin America over the last four years, as his foreign policy has focused squarely on the Arab Spring, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the rapid emergence of China as a heavyweight geopolitical rival.

Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger, did a little better on Monday, calling for more trade with the nations south of the Rio Grande.

“The opportunities for us in Latin America, we have just not taken advantage of fully. As a matter of fact, Latin America’s economy is almost as big as the economy of China,” he said in the debate in Boca Raton, Fla.

The former Massachusetts governor also took a passing swipe at Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and former Cuban President Fidel Castro, whom he lumped together with the erratic, totalitarian late North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il.

U.S.-Latin American relations was not brought up

Yet a host of important issues involving U.S.-Latin America relations, such as the illicit drug trade, terrorism and energy policy, have largely been ignored by both candidates on the campaign trail.

Even the theme of immigration—the proverbial elephant in the room of the fate of millions of Latin Americans living productively in the U.S.—has barely figured in their speeches.

Both candidates promise to prevent more illegal immigration while recognizing the reality that millions of undocumented migrants help power the U.S. economy. Yet both have provided few details, including on how they propose to push legislation through a Congress that has blocked comprehensive reform for years.

It was not always like this.

From the Cuban missile crisis—the game of atomic brinkmanship that forged John F. Kennedy’s claim to greatness—to the Iran-Contra scandal that ensnared Ronald Reagan’s presidency, Latin America has regularly played a major role in U.S. politics.

And the U.S. has also had a massive influence on Latin America through the years. Much of that has been positive, above all promoting democracy, both by example and through specific policies, and economic development fueled by international commerce.

The U.S. support for bloody military coups in Latin America has hurt the country’s image in the region

Yet Washington’s machinations have also had disastrous impacts on the region, including its support for bloody military coups against elected left-wing governments, such as in Guatemala in 1954 and in Chile in 1973.

In Chile, that led to a 17-year dictatorship that was as brutal and violent as any in the Western Hemisphere. In Guatemala, the ouster sparked decades of civil war in which an estimated 200,000 died, mainly impoverished indigenous Maya.

The legacy of those tragic interventions helps explain the animosity many on the Latin American left feel toward the U.S.—and therefore Washington’s diminished power in the region.

With the notable exceptions of Mexico, Colombia and Chile, the left is now in power across the region and a new generation of leaders has gone out of its way to assert autonomy from the U.S., including stepping up trade with Russia and, above all, China.

Obama’s ignoring of Latin America during the last four years may be, in part, a response to that new reality of increasingly limited U.S. influence in the region.

Yet the president may also have contributed to a growing sense of disappointment in the region by failing to back up talk in 2009 of a new “equal partnership” with Latin America—an apparent attempt to defuse perceptions of Washington’s traditionally highhanded dealings with the region.

The popular view that Washington takes an imperialistic approach to Latin America—and the perception that it will return if Romney wins—was summed up by Sergio Munoz Bata, in a column titled “Romney’s bellicose fantasies” in the Colombian paper El Tiempo: “If we really want to identify those responsible for the loss of prestige of US foreign policy … we would have to begin by revealing the names of the American politicians who for decades supported local dictators such as Hosni Mubarak in Egypt or Mohamed Reza Pahlavi [the Shah] in Iran,” he wrote.

On Monday night, Romney appeared anxious to distance himself from the warmongering image of George W. Bush, at one point even noting that the U.S. “can’t kill our way” out of the threat from terrorism.

Latin Americans, however, may be skeptical. To them, the Republican platform's belligerent tone toward Venezuela’s Chavez recalls the 2002 coup against Chavez that the Bush administration allegedly supported, thereby actually strengthening the voluble Washington critic’s hand.

“The current regime issues Venezuelan passports or visas to thousands of Middle Eastern terrorists offering safe haven to Hezbollah trainers, operatives, recruiters and fundraisers,” the GOP platform states.

The Republican National Committee did not respond to GlobalPost’s questions regarding the basis for that assertion.

If he is elected, only time will tell which Mitt Romney Latin America will have to deal with—a supportive ally anxious to grow trade or a cold warrior harking back to some of the U.S.’s most counterproductive policies in the region.

Rather than take that risk, most Latin Americans, it appears, would prefer four more years of being left well alone by Obama.

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