Brexit
- Thread starter Zr1Trader
- Start date
" http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-elec...balisation-as-we-know-it-20160626-gps0js.html
Harvard University economist Dani Rodrick dubs those trade-offs the "inescapable trilemma of the world economy." What that means is that we can have any two of these three things, but never all three: democracy, national sovereignty and global economic integration. In other words, you can't have people voting their own interests, in a country that always places its own interests above the shared interests of the global community, while also stitching everyone's economies together seamlessly.
"If we want more globalisation," Rodrick wrote in a 2007 blog post that has only grown in relevance over the past eight years, "we must either give up some democracy or some national sovereignty. Pretending that we can have all three simultaneously leaves us in an unstable no-man's land." A land of Big Macs, cheap toys and more and more Brexits.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity
The Impossible trinity (also known as the Trilemma) is a trilemma in international economics which states that it is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time:
A fixed foreign exchange rate
Free capital movement (absence of capital controls)
An independent monetary policy
It is both a hypothesis based on the uncovered interest rate parity condition, and a finding from empirical studies where governments that have tried to simultaneously pursue all three goals have failed. "
Harvard University economist Dani Rodrick dubs those trade-offs the "inescapable trilemma of the world economy." What that means is that we can have any two of these three things, but never all three: democracy, national sovereignty and global economic integration. In other words, you can't have people voting their own interests, in a country that always places its own interests above the shared interests of the global community, while also stitching everyone's economies together seamlessly.
"If we want more globalisation," Rodrick wrote in a 2007 blog post that has only grown in relevance over the past eight years, "we must either give up some democracy or some national sovereignty. Pretending that we can have all three simultaneously leaves us in an unstable no-man's land." A land of Big Macs, cheap toys and more and more Brexits.
"
"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity
The Impossible trinity (also known as the Trilemma) is a trilemma in international economics which states that it is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time:
A fixed foreign exchange rate
Free capital movement (absence of capital controls)
An independent monetary policy
It is both a hypothesis based on the uncovered interest rate parity condition, and a finding from empirical studies where governments that have tried to simultaneously pursue all three goals have failed. "
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EU would likely set stiff conditions in the following-up negotiations with UK in order to set an example to deter other countries from following UK.
Dictators are always good at convincing the weak and uneducated that democracy is not good for them. Unfortunately....the weak and uneducated usually listen.
Here is a German point of view in English.
I refuse to delve into the discussion about the effects of the Brexit in respect of possible political and economic consequences. For that’s what obviously everybody is doing: Politicians, system media, the Gullible Fritz. I don’t know exactly what is going on in your country. Yet here in Germany everyone knows everything better, anybody else but me is bearing the blame. Every person in front of a keypad or microphone is manifesting himself as the brightest bulb in the box, just like always. Everybody’s mangling everyone else without realizing the focal issues to some extent, nowhere near enough to make them subject of discussion or being willing resolve them.
==> Finger pointing of a furthermore unproductive chicken run instead of creative and fast approach to the problem concerning the EU malaise.
Myself, I approve the British – as a nation - to have been given the opportunity of struggling, of being allowed to shape big policy. I consider disgraceful bashing this people for something we all should avow for and we certainly all need now increasingly: The courage to make a tough decision.
==> Today, I’d like to go into some developments of the Brexit Friday. On stocks, gold, silver, currencies - the way I perceived them.
==> I’d like to dwell on the issues the System (financial system/central banks/politicians cast) is presently veiling, withholding, ignoring or being obliged to neglect. Let’s wait and see how long they persevere. I’d like to show some correlations behind the dark curtain that can only be perceived by someone who’s been in the business for as many as 20 years because he has developed a great deal of comprehension for the markets.
==> I’d like to bring home to my European readers and traders, but also to the GUNNER24 Fans beyond the sea – to them just approximately indeed – what happened in Europe on Friday… everything from my micro angle, showing the knife edge where Europe is certainly situated at the moment. And what the realizations of the Brexit Friday are supposed to mean for the stocks, gold and silver in the short term.
I refuse to delve into the discussion about the effects of the Brexit in respect of possible political and economic consequences. For that’s what obviously everybody is doing: Politicians, system media, the Gullible Fritz. I don’t know exactly what is going on in your country. Yet here in Germany everyone knows everything better, anybody else but me is bearing the blame. Every person in front of a keypad or microphone is manifesting himself as the brightest bulb in the box, just like always. Everybody’s mangling everyone else without realizing the focal issues to some extent, nowhere near enough to make them subject of discussion or being willing resolve them.
==> Finger pointing of a furthermore unproductive chicken run instead of creative and fast approach to the problem concerning the EU malaise.
Myself, I approve the British – as a nation - to have been given the opportunity of struggling, of being allowed to shape big policy. I consider disgraceful bashing this people for something we all should avow for and we certainly all need now increasingly: The courage to make a tough decision.
==> Today, I’d like to go into some developments of the Brexit Friday. On stocks, gold, silver, currencies - the way I perceived them.
==> I’d like to dwell on the issues the System (financial system/central banks/politicians cast) is presently veiling, withholding, ignoring or being obliged to neglect. Let’s wait and see how long they persevere. I’d like to show some correlations behind the dark curtain that can only be perceived by someone who’s been in the business for as many as 20 years because he has developed a great deal of comprehension for the markets.
==> I’d like to bring home to my European readers and traders, but also to the GUNNER24 Fans beyond the sea – to them just approximately indeed – what happened in Europe on Friday… everything from my micro angle, showing the knife edge where Europe is certainly situated at the moment. And what the realizations of the Brexit Friday are supposed to mean for the stocks, gold and silver in the short term.
David Cameron didn't have to call a referendum. It showed up his lack of judgement when he lost it. The mandate for such upheavals should have been 60+% and not a simple majority - bad mistake. So on a slim majority we are coming out of the EU or are we ? The referendum has only advisory powers, nothing mandatory at all. This ref. could be overturned in Parliament easily. If there was a vote an overwhelming majority of MPs would vote remain.
There is still a chance the UK won't formally leave the EU, but I think it's slim. Instead, I expect that the UK will officially leave the EU, whilst many of the existing rules and regulations will remain in place. The Norway model was mentioned quite a few times yesterday, but the sticking point here I think is uncontrolled migration, so the final deal will not be identical. In due course, I tend to feel that even the EU will themselves modify the free movement of labour principle, so that won't be specific to the EU-UK relationship. But this development will take time to play out, it cannot be seen to be a direct result of the UK's referendum.
What hasn't been mentioned too much is the Isle of Man's relationship with the EU. Isle of Man is part of the British Isles, not part of the EU, but they adopt many of the EU rules. So the UK solution could end up being influenced by the Isle of Man's arrangement too. Here is an overview of their relationship with the EU:-
Under Protocol 3, the Isle of Man is part of the customs territory of the Union. There is free movement of industrial and agricultural goods in trade between the Island and the Union. EU customs legislation and certain legislation relating to the trade in agricultural goods applies directly to the Island by virtue of Protocol 3.
The Isle of Man neither contributes to, nor receives anything from, the funds of the European Union. Any proposal to amend the text of Protocol 3 would require the unanimous approval of all Member States of the EU. Apart from the requirements of Protocol 3 all other EU legislation is not directly applicable to the Island. The Isle of Man Government may, however, choose to enact legislation that is similar to, or based on, EU legislation if it believes that this is in the Island’s interests. The Island's relationship with the Union allows it to trade with countries in the European Economic Area that are not EU Member States (Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) in a fashion generally similar to its trade with the Union itself.
Source: https://www.gov.im/media/624101/protocol3relationshipwiththeeu.pdf