Brexit odds at bookies vs polls vs trade

[JackRab]

Financial markets seem to be pricing brexit based on the betting markets, which are relatively small in $ size. If I were a large hedge fund, I would flood betfair with 'remain' bets to reduce the implied odds. When the financial markets reprice to reflect this, I can put on massive brexit positions at a favourable price. Nice skewed reward:risk

I think betting odds reflect the financial markets. Markets went up last days, so did the chance of remain. I think they're pricing in a 4% up / 12 % down scenario.... That's also kinda reflected in options pricing of European indices. Very high skew...

Again, if betting odds where 50/50 then there would be a massive arbitrage opportunity by betting on remain while shorting equities or GBP.
(see my 2nd post)

 

[achilles28]

Why am I not surprised.....

All these bookies are toast in a few hours!!!!!! D

 

[benwm]

Well, I went to the polling station at 7am this morning, and was a little surprised to see a queue already forming. Another person remarked that he thought he would be the first to vote, seemingly disappointed, and carrying a hangdog expression of annoyance at having to mingle with the masses.

Lots of tension in the air, both sides of the debate firm in their views. The polling station staff were trying to be casual and lighthearted, making small talk and forcing smiles, but to no avail. A nation is divided. This vote is too important for all concerned. EU's Juncker last night threatening the UK...no further negotiation if the UK stays...but "Out is Out", implying no immediate UK-EU trade deal if we leave. Feels like the UK is screwed either way, EU wanting to punish UK for even having the temerity to hold a referendum in the first place, and to make an example in case other EU members are considering having their own.

The thunderstorm passed over my local area last night and weather is now clear, no rain just grey skies. So I expect a high turnout, after all. Leave side to win, but cannot be sure that my emotions are being kept out of this. Heart perhaps ruling head. It's probably a coin toss.

 

[Martinghoul]

The mkt is now fully expecting a "Remain" win...

Anecdotally, turnout was, indeed, large, as there was a big queue at my polling station as well. High turnout is expected to benefit "Remain". Also, there's another poll result just out.

 

[trickshot]

So predictable, this is almost too easy. Will there be a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" kind of reaction to the outcome of the referendum?

 

[marcoPolo21]

i think the difference may be,
people who put their Money on the line, with a wager,
can be vastly different,
than people who are [sort of] just voicing an opinion, reflected in Polls...

marc

 

[clacy]

i think the difference may be,
people who put their Money on the line, with a wager,
can be vastly different,
than people who are [sort of] just voicing an opinion, reflected in Polls...

marc

Nope. Looks like the ones putting their money on the line, were probably from the city centers and can't fathom anyone voting leave, but that's exactly what happened.

 

[achilles28]

The vote will be rigged. 100 percent

Explains the spread between the bookie and polls.

Look at Scotland. There's too much riding on an exit to let the plebs decide

I stand corrected. I was way wrong. Still in disbelief the social controllers allowed Britain to leave the EU!!!

This is huge. Merkle's hubris and central command from Berlin. Other nations will now follow Britain's lead!!! EXCELLENT NEWS!!!! FUCK GLOBALISTS !@ FUCK GLOBALIZATION!!!!!!!!

 

[JackRab]

you must be a gold and bitcoin fan

 

[benwm]

I stand corrected. I was way wrong. Still in disbelief the social controllers allowed Britain to leave the EU!!!

This is huge. Merkle's hubris and central command from Berlin. Other nations will now follow Britain's lead!!! EXCELLENT NEWS!!!! FUCK GLOBALISTS !@ FUCK GLOBALIZATION!!!!!!!!

I voted Leave and expected a close win, even after the market's head fake the last few days. If that female politician hadn't been murdered last week I think it would have been bigger margin of victory for Leave. London is really out of touch with the rest of the country and the media got it so badly wrong with their analysis, they still think it's only about immigration, but it's about far more than that, starting with not wanting to be governed by Brussels. Sovereignty is #1 issue for me. F*** you Obama too for interfering in the debate...first time he showed an interest in the UK during his Presidential reign and even that he got wrong.

I am a little surprised that Cameron has announced so quickly he will step down. That part I didn't expect. But he didn't need to commit so strongly to the Remain side - he should have just stayed neutral as PM and stayed out of the debate - let the people decide. So maybe he just boxed himself into a corner. He could have stayed on if he'd stayed neutral on the debate.