Brexit odds at bookies vs polls vs trade

Move in FTSE after a Brexit-vote or Remain-vote (vote on both possibilities)


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This arithmetic rests on the (false) assumption that you could actually get positions of that size on at the prices quoted.

What do you mean? I can't short 100k worth of FTSE or bet 7.5k on a bet that has already matched 55mln through Betfair alone?

http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/b...=en&region=AUS_NZL&brand=betfair&currency=USD

You can easily trade 10x that...

Obviously not on the 50:50 bet, since that price isn't there... but I'm using that as an example of a hedging possibility.

I'm just putting a thesis out there arguing the bet is skewed because of developments on financial markets based on the outcome...
 
You wanna show me a mkt then?

I'm 65@85 for the referendum outcome, higher for actual staying or not... since my guess is if outcome is 52% for brexit, they'll still stay with limited political damage (it's still a referendum and not binding)
 
I'm 65@85 for the referendum outcome, higher for actual staying or not... since my guess is if outcome is 52% for brexit, they'll still stay with limited political damage (it's still a referendum and not binding)
Nice and tight mkt here, eh :)?
 
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