Brexit odds at bookies vs polls vs trade

[benwm]

All that said, there's the precedent of Anna Lindh to consider...

Thanks, I haven't heard about her, so googling now...

Edit - there is also the counterargument, in short - the murder suspect had a history of being unable to find employment, possibly held some resentment towards foreign workers in general (that's just speculation on my part), and a history of mental illness, raising questions about whether the health / social service lacks sufficient resources to deal with people with mental issues (due to additional strain caused by immigration).

So that's an argument that could theoretically also be made by a skillful (Leave side) politician, but clearly would be a massive risk. It's difficult to make such points without it appearing that you're engaging in political point scoring. On the other hand, it's much easier for the Remain side to call for "unity against hate" without saying too much else and letting people make their own interpretation of what they are saying. Distasteful as it may seem, I suspect both sides will be trying to make political capital from this incident, whilst equally attempting to appear sincere, rising above using such underhand tactics. Politicians, eh?

 

[benwm]

According to records obtained by the Southern Poverty Law Centre, (the murder suspect) Thomas Mair is alleged to have bought a 'munitions handbook', which included detailed instructions on how to build a pipe pistol in 1999.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...t-thomas-mair-bought-book-on-how-to-make-han/

Apparently this guy was a real book worm too. There is even a book above titled Free Speech. As the Chinese would say, "Mao was 70% good".

Another takeaway:
Be careful which books you purchase online...BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU

 

[Zestilio]

Be careful what assumptions and conclusions you make, that's for sure.

 

[benwm]

Be careful what assumptions and conclusions you make, that's for sure.

???

 

[achilles28]

The vote will be rigged. 100 percent

Explains the spread between the bookie and polls.

Look at Scotland. There's too much riding on an exit to let the plebs decide

 

[Martinghoul]

The vote will be rigged. 100 percent

Explains the spread between the bookie and polls.

Look at Scotland. There's too much riding on an exit to let the plebs decide

I think there have been explanations given for the divergence between the bookies and the polls already.

As to Scotland, what is there to see exactly?

 

[achilles28]

I think there have been explanations given for the divergence between the bookies and the polls already.

As to Scotland, what is there to see exactly?

Yes there have been. Except I don't think much matters else a rigged vote.

Scotland was polling to leave the uk into the referendum and they magically remained. So to will Britain.

Where have u been btw? Good to see ur still around. It's been at least a year or two

 

[benwm]

Scotland was polling to leave the uk into the referendum and they magically remained.

I can't say I was watching the Scotland vote too carefully but my recollection is different. I thought Scotland was always polling to stay in the UK, even if the polls tightened up in the days leading up to vote?

However, it seems that every foreign leader is desperate for the UK to stay in the EU, with Obama and Merkel already trying to make political capital over this Labour politician's murder, talking about "unity against hate, evil forces at work". Nobody gave a shit about Scotland, English were ok if they wanted to go their own way. Re the EU, the US loses some insight/grip/influence into/over Europe if they don't have an English speaking voice sat around the EU table. And it's better for others to have UK underwriting all that EU debt alongside Germany. So if you saw some postal votes go missing, or some shady work here and there, I wouldn't be that surprised...

But I guess I feel there's no need to rig the vote on the 1st referendum. Far easier to pull the wool over the eyes of the public, go back to the EU and "renegotiate" a better deal for the UK...then hold a 2nd referendum a few months later.

If that doesn't work, then rig the vote on the 2nd referendum.

 

[Martinghoul]

Yes there have been. Except I don't think much matters else a rigged vote.

Scotland was polling to leave the uk into the referendum and they magically remained. So to will Britain.

Where have u been btw? Good to see ur still around. It's been at least a year or two

Nah, I am pretty sure Scotland polls were never showing the independence campaign in the lead at any point. However, the polls were definitely indicating a much closer vote than the bookies.

I have been busy, is all...

 

[Xela]

Why are the odds for Brexit so different at the bookies compared to the polls?

Partly because the betting public sample isn't drawn from the same population (using the word in its statistical sense) as the polling participants samples.

Telephone polls are also significantly different (and in a more or less consistent way) from online polls.

there would be an arbitrage opportunity. Because, you sell and have a risk/reward of 5/10... and hedge buy betting on "Remain".

Say you short 100k and bet 7,5k on remain;

Result is Leave = +10k - 7.5k = 2.5k profit
Result is Remain = -5k + 7.5k = 2.5k profit...

This arithmetic rests on the (false) assumption that you could actually get positions of that size on at the prices quoted.