That's the kicker... The machines are literally day per day, the days of anticipating are over. When it snaps, it's straight free fall like Dec 13 when ECB announced stopping of QE, Dow lost 2805 from Dec 13 to 24, 8 trading days I believe... And nothing had snapped, it was just ECB announcing QE stopping and Fed likely to raise rates by 25 bps, world macro data weren't too bad per say at that time, it got quite worst since
The Stock market sell-off won't be gradual, it will be extremely vicious and fast, likely to last 2-3 months at most until Powell is singing the alphabet with Nirp, Birp, Zirp, Smurf's and QE5 to prop up market equities. Germany Manufacturing PMI next month will trend lower then when Lehman Collapsed, and CNBC telling us everything is fine, won't be a recession for 2 years ? That's space cadet fiction, I remember somebody writing he seen on CNBC in early September 08 that everything was fine and stocks were cheap. ECB pretty much socialized EU banks, that's how bad they anticipate the defaults to be, some banks in Italy got taken over by ECB or constant life support, EU finished it's Japanification last month... Those are very very bad signs of things to come, in terms of real economy, can't speculate of effects on Equities on that part
Can you imagine the destruction coming with Buybacks stopping which created the bubble of 2019, Pension funds who sold Bonds end 2018 to buy Equities in early 2019, pulling everything out for Profit and cover, majority of countries worldwide being in a recession as we speak, and a No Deal Brexit ? Earnings are for Q1 are due soon, I would say 90 % + will report significant YoY revenue decline, although they will beat " analyst " estimates to try and keep fiction going. What happens when the world " discovers " Tesla is using deposits as cash flow in few months ?
I have slightly more then 50 % of Account in PUTs, closing a option position next week, then waiting until No deal situation, gonna follow it down to the second and blast remaining in PUTs if No Deal goes through, wait a bit more for markets to rise if long Brexit Delay