Brexit: Fight or Flight?

[schweiz]

Since Germany exports far more here than it imports from us, I think they will be the ultimate loser.

Depends of what these exports are.
54% of all parts needed for car assembly in the UK come from the EU. Car assembly will be moved out of the UK. That will indeed lower the German export, and raise the unemployment in the UK. It will also hurt British exports as these cars will be assemblied outside the UK and so cannot be exported anymore.
British buyers of German cars will still buy these cars so these exports will not be really hurt. Cars are status symbols for enterpreneurs. Not buying that German car can be seen as your business is going bad and you have no money to buy that car anymore.

Exports to the UK that are lower are not by definition bad for business. Move that business out of the UK and it is even a positive thing. The economical impact of moving that business is much bigger than the export of goods needed for that business.
If BMW moves the total production abroad the UK that will bring more money then shipping some part to the UK for the assemblage of these cars. And the lost export to the UK will be for 100% be compensated because the exported parts will now be used within the EUK. So there is a shift of money, not a loss. The only real loss will be the move of BMW out of the UK.

 

[Visaria]

That's very good as most Europeans don't like these subsidies. Too expensive.

EU citizens already pay these. And will forever. Try to remember it's the UK moving out of the EU. We'll benefit from lower world food prices.

Germany will have to pay a higher contribution.

To who, the EU budget? That's ok since Germany is the main beneficiary of the EU.

EU will never keep tariffs at zero with a no deal Brexit, that's already very clear.

Not sure about how clear that is, if at all. Is this from your own political party that you run?

The EU will lose a small market (UK); the UK will lose a huge market (the entire EU).

The EU has a 96 billion pound surplus in trade with the UK. So no, the EU loses a huge market.

 

[Visaria]

The UK is the 2nd largest economy in Europe. This isn't Greece. Most exports here are finished goods. German manufacturers would go crazy if we retaliated and blocked their export of goods here. Mass unemployment in Germany and even more so in the rest of the EU. Given that Germany is about to slip into recession and most other EU countries are already in recession, this could be the end of the EU.

 

[Visaria]

In Germany about 750,000 jobs depend on UK trade

- Eric Schweitzer, President of the German Association of Chambers of Industry and Commerce

 

[schweiz]

In Germany about 750,000 jobs depend on UK trade

- Eric Schweitzer, President of the German Association of Chambers of Industry and Commerce

And how many jobs in the UK depend on EU trade?

Germany will never lose 750,000 jobs if the UK leaves EU. The write clearly "depend", not "lose".
This would only be true if these workers would work EXCLUSIVELY for the UK.
The Germans that produce parts send for assembly cars (Mini) in the UK, will still produce these parts. But they will not be send to the UK, but to The Netherlands where the production of cars will move after the Brexit. And it will create thousands of jobs on The Netherlands to replace the then unemployed British who worked in the then closed factories.

In short:

• XXX workers in Germany will still produce the same parts, but will send them to The Netherlands. So no change except for the destination which will now be within the EU. Reducing the export without any negative impact on employment, rather the contrary.
  
• XXX workers in the British assembly factories will lose their job, and the same amount of workers will get a new job in The Netherlands. Net loss for the UK XXX workers. Net profit for the EU: XXX workers. Imports will again decrease with only a positive impact on the economy of teh EU.
  
• And then we don't speak about the local subcontracters where the same thing will happen: UK will lose a lot of jobs, EU will gain a lot of jobs.

This discussion is stupid. You should take the whole picture to see the real result. And even experts from the leave campaign admit they have no clue about the real result.

 

[They]

 

[Visaria]

This discussion is stupid.

It's stupid because as usual you don't respond to the arguments I have countered your points with. Can you not see that a hard Brexit would cause untold disaster in the eurozone where even mighty Germany is in recession? Youth unemployment in Spain, Italy, France is at 30% -50%? Without UK financial support, the Eurozone budget is in crisis? Italian banks will need a bailout later this year.

My God, man, wake up!