Brexit alternative legal options.

  • Thread starter Thread starter morganist
  • Start date Start date
For or From Leaving ???

They don't care, deals done, making them big $$$$'s, yes there in bed with Trumpy and the UK Public are going to lie down and take it in the ass yet again, without being bought dinner first and we'll even say thanks afterwards.

UK of the USA 51st State :( only brain dead mumpets allowed!!
 
I'm genuinely not sure of what would be best for the UK, but here's what I think Johnson will do next -

1. fail to get an improved Brexit deal

2. call a second referendum with the options:
a) no-deal Brexit
or
b) Remain

This step probably needs the EU to agree to a delay on the 31/10 deadline but as they will be hopeful of a Remain result, the UK will probably get it. A national referendum also requires an Act of Parliament but there would probably be a majority for this in the House of Commons, given the two alternative outcomes.

3. on a no-deal Brexit second referendum result, call a General Election immediately after Brexit: on a Remain result, call a General election immediately after the referendum.

For better or worse I can see Johnson getting a landslide election victory and continuing his term with a comfortable majority.
 
Could limit UK retail's access to EU exchanges and EU residents to UK exchanges.
 
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ironchef said:
Why is no-deal Brexit bad for UK?
More...


Most agree economically it is bad for the UK short-term. But long-term any argue it will be better.

The Brexit referendum result was not based on economic evidence, it was a political vote. Politically speaking, a no-deal Brexit is either better or no worse than any kind of partnership agreement with the EU.
 
ironchef said:
Why is no-deal Brexit bad for UK?
More...
In one word: tariffs. In case of no-deal will all tariffs default to the WTO tariff values, and these are a lot worse than what is currently in place. This will remain until the UK has negotiated new deals with various countries (e.g. EU, USA, Asia), which will take a couple of years. So in the short term is this a bad situation for them to be in. On the longer term it depends on what trade deals the UK will be able to negotiate.
 
ironchef said:
Is it still a tradable event, like right after the Brexit vote?
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The date of the UK's exit from the EU will be known in advance, also the conditions if any. It won't be an event so much as a process. Very possibly the GBP will not change a penny from the day before Brexit to the day after, the exit and its conditions will be priced in. Right now the question is whether a deal with favourable economic conditions might be done with the EU. Announcement of favourable deal terms might cause both the GBP to rise significantly, but also the EUR. Continued progress towards no deal Brexit gives no reason to buy GBP for the long term until after Brexit and economic data starts to emerge, so probably GBP prices will soon find a bottom and start to range.

There still remains a small possibility that the UK might remain in the EU but this option's less likely now that Johnson's PM.
 
HobbyTrading said:
In one word: tariffs. In case of no-deal will all tariffs default to the WTO tariff values, and these are a lot worse than what is currently in place. This will remain until the UK has negotiated new deals with various countries (e.g. EU, USA, Asia), which will take a couple of years. So in the short term is this a bad situation for them to be in. On the longer term it depends on what trade deals the UK will be able to negotiate.
More...
One wonders how they could negotiate anything better than then current zero tariffs they have with the rest of the EU? And why they think they would be in a better negotiating position than the entire EU for any other bilateral deals. @tomorton is right about the politically speaking results, but from an economically speaking perspective it's almost impossible to see a way they end up anything better than where they are now and most probably worse.
 
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