Breakout system ES

M

melmak

Hello everybody. I have been reading these forums for few years now but i havent really posted anything yet.

I have been inspired by NoDoji and her trading methods and last few months I have been working on the breakout system. I have been working my ass off to make it work and the results are quite medicore atm. Im writing about it here in hope i could get some constructive feedback how to improve it or maybe understand some things a bit better.

Should the entry be 1 tick above high/low of retracement candle or should

The idea isnt fancy at all. I draw trend line let price break it then I wait for a tretrace in the direction of initial breakout on preplaced order that is above low of last retracement candle (if breakout was to the downside)

After spending so much time with the system and seeing so many breakouts i feel this should work but its the details that are killing me.

In relation to stop, should i put it behind further retracement point or should i use default 2 point stop

Where to take profit, default profit shows 2.5 point is the right amount but then the profit/risk ratio is 2.5/2 and theres very little to be gained it anything. trailing stop behind 5m bars gets me out of the trade too quickly. Atm im trying trailing 10m bars, this seems to have potential to capture decent amount of move before I exit but i need more tests.

In regards to retracements. Should i wait for both low and high of a candle to retrace or one of them is enough for a candle to be a retracement candle after which i place my order. Is it enough to be only 1 or needs to be at least 2.

Is volume important at all in this kind of system? I found out that it works if i scratch trade next candle after entry if theres no volume increase after my entry. Is it important on breakout as well to confirm the breakout?

I know I should get those answers from my statistisc but with evey change i need to test so many trades and its soo much work to do it for one person. Ive been doing it couple months and i still havent completed that one system.

Those are just some questions that i cant come up with definitive anwser, I got some thoughts what might be right but failing so hard so long (ive stratred trading before i started doing this system) is really made me question everything.

If any of you pros is reading this id appreciate your help.
 
I'm no pro but I had this same problem trading a similar system. What helped me was to stop worrying about getting in 1 tick above/below certain bars and whatnot. I simply plot support and resistance points and buy/sell at those points with a close stop. I've found that waiting for price to retest certain points offer a low risk entry.
 
melmak said:
...I have been inspired by NoDoji and her trading methods and last few months I have been working on the breakout system. I have been working my ass off to make it work and the results are quite medicore atm. Im writing about it here in hope i could get some constructive feedback how to improve it or maybe understand some things a bit better...
More...

I didn't fully quote you because most of the information you've provided is inadequate info one would need to profitably trade Emini ES futures...one of the toughest trading instruments to trade.

1) Post charts of your trade signal via the exact charts you're using to trade. Show entries and exits and that line you mentioned.

2) Why are you trading Emini ES futures ? I will assume its because you've backtested your trade method on many other trading instruments and you determine your trade method works best on the Emini ES futures.

3) Hopefully you're on a simulator and not real-money.

4) What other charts do you have up on your monitors while you're trading Emini ES futures ? Lets put it this way, I've been fortunate enough to watch institutional traders trade this particular trading instrument...it isn't the only thing they're monitoring to help trade it.

5) What's your capital, contract size, you using automation, breakouts in trends or breakouts in range, time duration you're typically trading, money management...important things you need to discuss because if you're only able to talk about your trading trade signals while struggling...you're already at a disadvantage because you may be one of those traders that there's nothing wrong with your trade method...it may just be you if you're discretionary (no automation) and/or it may be something in your trading plan that has nothing to do with your trade entry signal.

There's just so much critical information that you didn't mention but posting charts is a must considering what you've briefly describe can probably relate to any one of thousands of breakout systems.
 
I can save you a great deal of time and mental anguish by telling you something you don't want to hear. Nothing you are doing works or will work. The HFT and sophisticated traders will eat your lunch and you will burn commissions. If you want to make money your entire mental framework needs to change.

First step, or step one is you need to develop a framework that allows you to analyze how markets actually trade. In other words you need to develop intellectual capital that goes far beyond the naive stuff proffered by gurus and trader books. It takes time.
 
melmak said:
Hello everybody. I have been reading these forums for few years now but i havent really posted anything yet.

I have been inspired by NoDoji and her trading methods and last few months I have been working on the breakout system. I have been working my ass off to make it work and the results are quite medicore atm. Im writing about it here in hope i could get some constructive feedback how to improve it or maybe understand some things a bit better.

Should the entry be 1 tick above high/low of retracement candle or should

The idea isnt fancy at all. I draw trend line let price break it then I wait for a tretrace in the direction of initial breakout on preplaced order that is above low of last retracement candle (if breakout was to the downside)

After spending so much time with the system and seeing so many breakouts i feel this should work but its the details that are killing me.

In relation to stop, should i put it behind further retracement point or should i use default 2 point stop

Where to take profit, default profit shows 2.5 point is the right amount but then the profit/risk ratio is 2.5/2 and theres very little to be gained it anything. trailing stop behind 5m bars gets me out of the trade too quickly. Atm im trying trailing 10m bars, this seems to have potential to capture decent amount of move before I exit but i need more tests.

In regards to retracements. Should i wait for both low and high of a candle to retrace or one of them is enough for a candle to be a retracement candle after which i place my order. Is it enough to be only 1 or needs to be at least 2.

Is volume important at all in this kind of system? I found out that it works if i scratch trade next candle after entry if theres no volume increase after my entry. Is it important on breakout as well to confirm the breakout?

I know I should get those answers from my statistisc but with evey change i need to test so many trades and its soo much work to do it for one person. Ive been doing it couple months and i still havent completed that one system.

Those are just some questions that i cant come up with definitive anwser, I got some thoughts what might be right but failing so hard so long (ive stratred trading before i started doing this system) is really made me question everything.

If any of you pros is reading this id appreciate your help.
More...
If you been following NoDoji, doesn't it make more sense to ask her?

Few months? ROLFMAO are you serious? Try work a few years till you get to breakeven stage with ES, as it is one of the toughest instruments to trade but does have the best volume. You are asking way too many questions, which tells me you are not anywhere near to real time. YOU have to do the work and not those who trade it each day. In ES you have to be proficient at trading chop and a little trend, I'd recommend you day trade anything else. And I have news for you, just about any day trading risk will always be more than any other type of trading.

People just don't get it, in any given day you are risking so much money and end up much less than what the risk is compared to long term trading where you can eventually make 10 plus to 1 reward to risk. But comes down to study and much work by yourself and not others, and if I was to answer all your questions, you don't have a clue how to adapt when it needs to be changed, volatility changes including stop risk, targets, minutes to get to breakeven stops, swing size and wave size, plus when you ask other traders, they won't trade like you as you don't know if they using 5 second charts or 480 minute charts, you don't know if they have delayed stop loss or delayed breakeven/profit targets, you know nothing of what others do. Do you have a Trading Plan and is it filled with stats? When you have 95% of your Trading Plan, start a journal to find more answers.
 
Handle123 said:
If you been following NoDoji, doesn't it make more sense to ask her?

Few months? ROLFMAO are you serious? Try work a few years till you get to breakeven stage with ES, as it is one of the toughest instruments to trade but does have the best volume. You are asking way too many questions, which tells me you are not anywhere near to real time. YOU have to do the work and not those who trade it each day. In ES you have to be proficient at trading chop and a little trend, I'd recommend you day trade anything else. And I have news for you, just about any day trading risk will always be more than any other type of trading.

People just don't get it, in any given day you are risking so much money and end up much less than what the risk is compared to long term trading where you can eventually make 10 plus to 1 reward to risk. But comes down to study and much work by yourself and not others, and if I was to answer all your questions, you don't have a clue how to adapt when it needs to be changed, volatility changes including stop risk, targets, minutes to get to breakeven stops, swing size and wave size, plus when you ask other traders, they won't trade like you as you don't know if they using 5 second charts or 480 minute charts, you don't know if they have delayed stop loss or delayed breakeven/profit targets, you know nothing of what others do. Do you have a Trading Plan and is it filled with stats? When you have 95% of your Trading Plan, start a journal to find more answers.
More...

I've come to the conclusion that no one under the age of 50 has any idea what The Scientific Method is, or, if they've heard of it, they have no idea how to implement it. Their idea of data collection, for example, appears to be the process of making the same mistakes day after day expecting a different result over time. Since they have no idea how to isolate a variable, or perhaps what a variable is, they "test" a dozen different elements simultaneously, hoping (and I use that word deliberately) that it will all somehow work out.

I can assure you that ND knows all about The Scientific Method.

Backwards and forwards.

In spades.
 
Handle123 said:
Do you have a Trading Plan and is it filled with stats? When you have 95% of your Trading Plan, start a journal to find more answers.
More...

Hi there @melmak

This is great advice.

This is where I am at presently. Trust me - the difference between having a hypothesis and having stats is immense.

I'm nowhere near ready to be trading this live at present btw Maybe I'm more cautious than other people.....
 
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