Breaking news: Niederhoffer still in business after market correction!

2cents · Jun 18, 2006

Quote from Reckoner:

Risk is all relative. What would any of us do faced with a 1987 style crash in which there are no bids? Stop losses don't even get filled in that kind of situation.

The safest way to trade is totally unleveraged with money you can well afford to lose. But you don't get rich that way.

The big question in all of this is how close to the wind can one afford to sail? Everyone has there own idea about this, but lower risk means lower profits.

Anyone want to talk about profits? Seems that there's not much interest in profits round here.

what do u make of the 28% DD... both in relative - to past perf, the mkt, the competition, your own max DD (if u trade real money) - and absolute terms? try to think its not VN's matador, to which you seem to be too emotionally attached, but bernard lo's 'mybestpicks' fictitious fund instead... see how you would look at it... also suggest u read up on the sortino ratio... don't think it's irrelevant, particularly in VN's case... http://www.hedgefundcenter.com/wrap...content_id=170&content_type=articles&aff_id=0

Ubertrader · Jun 18, 2006

Quote from Reckoner:

And what about profits? Are you anywhere near his overall profitability for the last few years, even including May.

If you can do that without risk, I take my hat off to you. And please tell me where to send the cheque as I'd like to invest my money with you.

Yes , Yes and av anual return 25%. rolling last 12mths return of 20.46% with max dd of 3.89%.
May'06 was +3.95% Audited by NAV Consulting INC.
Sorry but we don;t accept retail accounts.

regards

marketsurfer · Jun 18, 2006

Quote from Ubertrader:

Yes , Yes and av anual return 25%. rolling last 12mths return of 20.46% with max dd of 3.89%.
May'06 was +3.95% Audited by NAV Consulting INC.
Sorry but we don;t accept retail accounts.

regards

whats your AUM ?

Reckoner · Jun 18, 2006

Quote from 2cents:

what do u make of the 28% DD... both in relative - to past perf, the mkt, the competition, your own max DD (if u trade real money) - and absolute terms? try to think its not VN's matador, to which you seem to be too emotionally attached, but bernard lo's 'mybestpicks' fictitious fund instead... see how you would look at it... also suggest u read up on the sortino ratio... don't think it's irrelevant, particularly in VN's case... http://www.hedgefundcenter.com/wrap...content_id=170&content_type=articles&aff_id=0

I personally prefer a lower risk profile. But I don't believe there is a 'correct' answer on this.

Reckoner · Jun 18, 2006

Quote from Ubertrader:

Yes , Yes and av anual return 25%. rolling last 12mths return of 20.46% with max dd of 3.89%.
May'06 was +3.95% Audited by NAV Consulting INC.
Sorry but we don;t accept retail accounts.

regards

Really this is excellent. Almost as good as me in fact...

Reckoner · Jun 18, 2006

Quote from marketsurfer:

excellent post.

if you avoid losses at all costs, why not just get a job??

surfer

Precisely. Much better to get a job and dollar cost average into an index tracker.

smilingsynic · Jun 18, 2006

Quote from Reckoner:

Risk is all relative. What would any of us do faced with a 1987 style crash in which there are no bids? Stop losses don't even get filled in that kind of situation.

The crash did not just happen out of the blue. There was a period of sharply declining prices the previous week. A good trend follower would have been out long before Monday.

Bitstream · Jun 18, 2006

Quote from smilingsynic:

The crash did not just happen out of the blue. There was a period of sharply declining prices the previous week. A good trend follower would have been out long before Monday.

also a wise investor wishin' to stay long would/could have bot some insurance, innit.

trendmomentum · Jun 19, 2006

Quote from roctrend:

trendmomentum

Registered: Jul 2004
Posts: 76

06-14-06 09:25 PM

And for the record in Elite history, a quote from the original article "Briefly Speaking, by Victor Niederhoffer", which appeared on the 11-Jun-2006 on DailySpeculations.com

"Eventually this decline will pass. I'll go on record with a prediction -- supported by the statistics on the table -- of what happens to stocks the next few days after five declines in a row, and what happens to them when bonds close at a maximum and stocks at a minimum. The prediction: the rise will start Monday."

This was later changed to:

"Eventually this decline will pass. And statistics on the table -- of what happens to stocks the next few days after five declines in a row, and what happens to them when bonds close at a maximum and stocks at a minimum -- suggest a rise is coming on Monday."

Now, you know what the fuss is all about. A childish attempt to erase a foolish and simplistic interpretation of the theory of runs, suported with voodoo correlation by the speculator.

Enjoy.

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As of late Friday June 16 I see Vic now has the original Post from Sunday up. WHEW Finally!!! So yet another change , but at least back to the original post ; so new readers can ask what all the fuss is about on ET... Of course Vic won't provide us an explanation why so many changes after he was OFF on a market call during a Bad Drawdown in his Fund. Nope did not think so. NONE NADA... Thats an admission of wrong, failing, ugh huh Vic.

I guess ET serves some purpose other than a Bitchfest, because his original post is back. What tomorrrow or the rest of the week brings on Vics Posts on his website I am sure are subject to change after the fact. Why? he gives no explanation for his multiple Market Call changes. Trendmo.... called him OUT on ET and deserves a damn atta' boy, and proved Vics changes on this thread. I really doubt the original post Prediction would be back if We werent persistent Since Wednesday on this thread. Why ? He even stated on his site that his guys are already on ET. He reads this, as well he should. Like I said early on Vic, its okay to make a call and be wrong on your website. No Trader is right 100% of the time. THATS WHY WE CUT OUR LOSSES! at predetermined levels. They are the equivalent of a Variable business expense, and we like to preserve our winnings, not play roller coaster, Russian Roullette with them. Guess what? I have no PHD either to figure that out. Its not IQ stuff, nope, but takes some EI to face your losses....just EI Vic.
Post on your site what EI means to traders Vic. Teach us young Bucks, Professor... When the Shit hits the FAN, and the market tanks against your position, is it best to FREEZE? VN is it? Justify you were right each day, each tick against, each hour, each day? Ride that downwave to who knows how far? Look at backward looking Statistics/probabilities? Any winning trader knows that in this BIZ you win a little , lose a little, win a lot, but NEVER want to Lose A lot....NEVER....takes too long to make it back... Never a lot.

Ok, nice one.

Reckoner · Jun 19, 2006

Quote from smilingsynic:

The crash did not just happen out of the blue. There was a period of sharply declining prices the previous week. A good trend follower would have been out long before Monday.

So you are saying that after a period of sharply declining prices one should exit longs? You're teasing, right? If not I suggest you try to quantify this idea to see if it's correct.