Breaking news: Niederhoffer still in business after market correction!

As a followup,

Be careful about those who claim that "statistics" show that trading strategies, since they were successful in the past, will be successful in the future.

It would be wonderful if we could trade last March's corn, or the S&P futures contract from 1993, but those contracts have expired. Backtesting those reveals something. If only we could do some "futuretesting." :-)

No one knows the future. Bottom line. Statistics only tell us the past, but that's all. Backtesting may have some utility, but it should not be a crutch. Backtesting over a short period should be a red flag.

We can, however, control our exposure to the markets. Unhedged premium sellers will ultimately be wiped out, given enough time, exactly the same way that, if given enough time, a orangutan typing on a Word Processor will somehow write John Milton's PARADISE LOST.

Good luck to all.
 
Quote from ChiBondKing:

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/markets/hedgefunds/10292247.html

Niederhoffer, in an email response to TheStreet.com, confirmed Matador's big percentage loss in May, but noted the fund has registered gains in 29 of the past 32 months..
More...

Sigh.

If he loses most or all of what he earned over those 29 months, trading-wise, he is a loser.

I have never been in a car accident, but some joker on his cellphone may later tonight veer off the side of the highway and smack into my Honda.

If that happens (doubtful), then my 20 years of perfect driving will mean little.

I don't walk around expecting disaster, but you have to always be vigilant, expecting the unexpected, rejoicing when it does not happen. In driving, I look out for the anomaly.

In trading, imho, it makes sense to do the same.

Good luck to all (including VN).:-)
 
ChiBondKing


Registered: Jun 2004
Posts: 408


06-16-06 07:19 PM

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscana/ma...s/10292247.html

Niederhoffer's Second Act Has Plot Twist

By Matthew Goldstein
Senior Writer
6/16/2006 1:11 PM EDT

The May selloff in stocks couldn't have come at a worse time for hedge fund manager Victor Niederhoffer, who's been working hard to put his infamous 1990s boom-to-bust story behind him.

In May, Niederhoffer's four-year-old Matador Fund posted one of its worst months ever, industry sources say. The fund, which specializes in trading stock futures and stock index futures, lost nearly 29% as the U.S. markets began to unravel, reducing the value of Matador's holdings to about $247 million.

As of the end of May, the so-called commodity trading adviser fund, which was once up 31% for the year, was 6% in the red since the end of December. Results for June, which is shaping up as another harsh month for investors, could not be determined.


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Thanks for new Post. Good read. I vote that this thread should go back to Wall St. News for newbie traders . Seriously. For traders that want to learn and to emulate trading from public peers, they need to know ALL facts, not just what a storyteller wants you to hear....oh yes when the market bottoms and rallies all the "i told you so's: will bark out to us. Meanwhile we will be both long and short with NO BIAS, just what we see NOW and what the market gives us and takes from us. If I were up that much and went red half way in the year.. I WOULD STOP TRADING and PICK Myself apart until I Know what I did wrong...not justify my limited regard for downside RISK... and argue I was right.

Lets remove from Chit Chat and let new traders know how tough this trading business really is!!!
 
Quote from roctrend:

He makes himself public. We Dont!!!! He does.
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so the elitetrader site is somehow "private"?

i've never understood this distinction. anyone who posts on elitetrader is "public" on the web. and some posters have thousands of posts, so they have way more "public" content out there on the web than vic niederhoffer does.

of course, the difference is, vic and others like him aren't afraid to speak their names.
 
Quote from smilingsynic:

As a followup,

Be careful about those who claim that "statistics" show that trading strategies, since they were successful in the past, will be successful in the future.

It would be wonderful if we could trade last March's corn, or the S&P futures contract from 1993, but those contracts have expired. Backtesting those reveals something. If only we could do some "futuretesting." :-)

No one knows the future. Bottom line. Statistics only tell us the past, but that's all. Backtesting may have some utility, but it should not be a crutch. Backtesting over a short period should be a red flag.

We can, however, control our exposure to the markets. Unhedged premium sellers will ultimately be wiped out, given enough time, exactly the same way that, if given enough time, a orangutan typing on a Word Processor will somehow write John Milton's PARADISE LOST.

Good luck to all.
More...


Why are you going back on your previous excellent idea???

Is it because you realised that such an objective method of testing returns might alienate you from your cronies?
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Thanks for the insight..."Rodney."
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i didn't say i was cut from such cloth. i said vic and his peers are. i'm down here in the mud with the other lowlifes.

please, read posts carefully before misreplying. save everyone some time.
 
Quote from Rodney King:

...please, read posts carefully before misreplying. save everyone some time.
More...
So what you're saying is that I should first read posts carefully and then "misreply." I guess it must come so naturally to you, but I'll give it a try.
 
Quote from Reckoner:

Why are you going back on your previous excellent idea???

Is it because you realised that such an objective method of testing returns might alienate you from your cronies?
More...

There is no contradiction. I think the Sharpe ratio is a useful tool in measuring the PAST volatility of a trader's performance. But that is it.

There is no "objective" way to predict the future with statistics. All statistics do is help us understand the past.

Those seeking "objective" absolute truth about the future behavior of the markets will surely be disappointed.

Or, if they become a hedge fund manager, they will almost surely have disappointing returns.
 
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