Breaking news: Niederhoffer still in business after market correction!

Quote from marketsurfer:

you have no idea what the acceptable margin of error was in the original calculations. not everyone hangs on every tic, RA. sorry, no uri geller here.

surfer:D


by the way, you never stated the parameters....
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Apparently the margin of error was -30%, eh? That seemed to be the uncle point for Vic and those Dec 1100 puts? What are you... 11th man on the deal team?
 
Quote from riskarb:

Apparently the margin of error was -30%, eh? That seemed to be the uncle point for Vic and those Dec 1100 puts? What are you... 11th man on the deal team?
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we are talking about the call made, nothing else.

did the SP drop 30% on monday??

surfer:D :p
 
Quote from Choad:

At least he's...good at SOMETHING! :D
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Well, it looks like the true colours of the VN-bashing brigade are finally being revealed.

First we had the pompous intellectualising of Arseimedes, now we've got the sniggering louts.

What a pathetic bunch you are.

And with that I bid you adieu...
 
Quote from Reckoner:

Have you tested that? Let me answer for you, no you haven't.

If you were actually to formulate this idea into a testable hypothesis, you would not need to be a giggling cynic. You would be someone who could judge the merit of trading ideas for himself.
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Before you ask me questions, please answer the one I already posed: What is VN's Sharpe? This is important info to back up your assertion that VN is a "great trader". Anyone can make big returns by taking on big risk. But good traders make respectable returns with low risk (i.e. volatility of returns).

FYI, I test ideas all of the time with Excel and Wealth-Lab. Here's what I found: buying something oversold works more than it does not. But when it fails, it fails big. Something can work 75% of the time and still be, in the LONG RUN, a loser.

I think my own hard earned capital is too important to, in VN fashion, blow it all. A 29% drawdown in a month is to me outrageous. Risking his family's financial security on a stinking Yen trade--as VN himself admits in EDUCATION OF A SPECULATOR--strikes me as mind-numblingly irresponsible.

How does it strike you? Is that "great trading"? Do "great traders" bet the ranch?

I'll answer those for you. No.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

actually, rudimentary testing clearly shows that buying after a decline is more profitable strategy than buying after "prices tick up". please see larry connors " how markets really work" for some good, simple , useable tests--if you lack the math skills or desire to do it yourself.

surfer
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I read the Connors piece. I'm not talking about buying new 10 day highs. I tested that years ago--in short-term trading, that was a loser. Then again, if one NEVER bought new ten-day highs, then you'd never catch a bull market. For long-term trends, I would prefer buying new 25 day highs. And, yes, I tested that too.

I've looked over some of the systems that Connors and Tradingmarkets have published. Much of what they sell is curve-fitted nonsense based on a limited sample. His book is better, but not by much.

Do you think Connors still accepts royalties from STREET SMARTS, which advocates trading with the trend? Apparently he likes playing both sides of the fence.

Is it possible for you to ask a question without being a smartass? You really need to get a grip on your emotions.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

we are talking about the call made, nothing else.

did the SP drop 30% on monday??

surfer:D :p
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No, but the portfolio of the short Dec 1100P contributed to another large DD last week. He covered shortly after the call was made.
 
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