i noticed that VN website is currently kindda stagnant. Interestingly, has anyone noticed that Taleb's website (his blog) www.fooledbyrandomness.com has been updated quite often recently. Speaking of counting, any negative correlation between the two, anyone?
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Breaking news: Niederhoffer still in business after market correction!
- Thread starter just21
- Start date
I suggest you look up the term ad hominem and wise up a bit, Rodney boy.
Quote from trendmomentum:
And yet, completely out of character, he commits two sins in a row, firstly he makes a bold market prediction with 100% certainty, no room for error. When it goes wrong, he then joins the scammers and loosers camp and tries to fudge the past. WOW. His ego is greater than himself, but unfortunately he transformed a very popular and respectable web place for informed minds into a cheap web log/scratch paper. What a shame!
I would have loved to see a follow up article discussing the perils of misapplied statistics or something like it. A simple admission of error and move on attitude would have shown a great trader's mind.
Unfortunately, some people cannot do that and let their emotions rule the moment. Then, when history cannot be changed for real the huge blow outs follow. Oh dear, I think I've might seen that happen before.
Anyway, leave predictions for Vegas and loosers, here we should be dealing with expectancy values instead.
I don't think you understand what a prediction actually is, which might explain why you got the wrong end of the stick. When the expectancy of something reaches statistical significance it can be regarded as 'predictive', but there are no '100%' sure things with stats, just levels of confidence.
There are plenty of good books on stats for beginners, for example Rowntree's 'Statistics without Tears'.
As for the change in text, it's only a big deal for people looking for something to attack.
Yup, number two statistics book on VN's recommendation list. You're definitely an insider trying to make up for his master. Well, nothing wrong with that, really.
Quote from Reckoner:
There are plenty of good books on stats for beginners, for example Rowntree's 'Statistics without Tears'.
[/B]
Quote from trendmomentum:
Yup, number two statistics book on VN's recommendation list. You're definitely an insider trying to make up for his master. Well, nothing wrong with that, really.
Some more free education for you, not that you deserve it:
The whole problem with 'expectancies' which are not 'predictive' is that you can get the data to admit to zillions of them if you torture it enough. If, on the other hand, you get a statistically significant outcome, then you 'might' have an edge.
And now we come to one of the more revealing questions. Did you actually bother to test VN's 'prediction' and the reason he made it?
Well I know what your answer is, it's clear from your posts.
As I said before, there was nothing wrong with the 'prediction' itself, but more with the attempt to retract it after the day was over.
VN has created for himself a very visible high profile image and he is trying too hard to manipulate it. He is the one who craves for recognised greatness and legacy. So this leaves him exposed to extra scrutinity.
Sorry, this is no fan club, but simply practical speculation.
VN has created for himself a very visible high profile image and he is trying too hard to manipulate it. He is the one who craves for recognised greatness and legacy. So this leaves him exposed to extra scrutinity.
Sorry, this is no fan club, but simply practical speculation.
Quote from Reckoner:
Some more free education for you, not that you deserve it:
The whole problem with 'expectancies' which are not 'predictive' is that you can get the data to admit to zillions of them if you torture it enough. If, on the other hand, you get a statistically significant outcome, then you 'might' have an edge.
And now we come to one of the more revealing questions. Did you actually bother to test VN's 'prediction' and the reason he made it?
Well I know what your answer is, it's clear from your posts.
Quote from trendmomentum:
VN has created for himself a very visible high profile image and he is trying too hard to manipulate it. He is the one who craves for recognised greatness and legacy. So this leaves him exposed to extra scrutinity.
Has it occurred to you that he may be trying to help people, and indeed fellow traders?
Quote from trendmomentum:
I am sure he is! I myself been following his work for few years now. That's exactly why we are having this discussion right now.
I didn't notice much of discussion, just a lot of name calling and nit picking. Seemed to me like pretty shabby treatment of a great trader and benevolent person, which is why I've been wasting my time here.