That said, I'll bet money if given the opportunity for a third pick, Trump goes with a centrist judge. Maybe even a teeny tiny hint of left. There's lots of reasons why. Trump's smart.
I don't know. I will take the other side of that trade just for argument purposes. I would have agreed with that two years ago, but not now. I have either evolved or deteriorated from that view, depending on how you look at it.
My reasoning is suchly and thusly:
1) Two years ago I would have taken the view that Trump is a closet quasi-democrat and will toss bones out to the dems to pick up some of their votes on critical items, such as court judges. We know now that the dems vote as a block and will not vote for anyone who is appointed by Trump unless they need to do it to survive with the voters at home in Trump country. It would be a big mistake for Trump to appoint some centrist who would cause him to lose freedom caucus (or whatever the senate version is called) type votes in his own party just to try to bring in some dem votes. He ain't getting any dem votes and they will try to cut the balls or ovaries off of any perfectly honorable and qualified centrist he appoints. So why bother.
2) Trump is sort of big consumer of Supreme Court "services". I mean, before it is all over he will have racked up some serious frequent flier miles before the court. So he needs to have judges who will side with him to the extent possible, and cannot risk appointing a centrist flip-flopper just to please the dems who cannot be pleased anyway. The damn conservative judges are unpredictable enough without willingly putting a known fence-straddler on the bench.
3) Trump has gotten his last two nominees off of the pre-approved list prepared by the Heritage Foundation, and realistically, that has worked very well. It is one of the few areas where he has actually taken advice from someone who was not someone he watches on Fox and it has tamped down his immediate tendency to want to appoint Judge Judy, or Judge Jeanine. I dont see any reason why he would go off the reservation there and follow another process. In addition, he now finally knows that McConnell is the one who has to do a lot of the heavy lifting and that trump and mcconnell working together have been appointing and confirming a massive number of appellate and lower court judges. And I dont see McConnell ever thinking that he needs to throw a centrist judge into the mix now that he finally has the votes to just appoint who they want as long as personal dirt doesnt come up on the nominee. Mitch would be worried about having the far right conservatives hold out if democrat-appeasing judge was nominated when they knew the had the votes for a conservative. I dont think Trump was there on that a couple years ago. I think it was another area where he just thought he could flop his person out and everyone would love him and the hell with the senate political hacks tell him. But trump knows now that mitch worked his arse off on both delaying the merrick garland nomination and in getting kavanaugh through. So the Odd Couple have sort of worked out a little tag team routine there that is working on judicial appointments and he will listen to mitch in regard to what he can get through the senate. Anyone pre-approved by the Heritage Foundation gets him 90% of the way there anyway.
So, my thinking is like dat.
Might have to revise a couple comments if some of these recounts change the picture. I think the pubs still have a majority if all of the recounts shit the bed for the republicans. But, if the pubs have just a seat majority that's pretty dicey and you are back to making sure that Susan Collins doesnt go off the reservation.
