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I can't post a rebuttal at Le Cafe', so I figured I'd do it here. My problem with this article is not that I'm a fan of nor do I trust the IMF, nor am I convinced of the creditworthiness of South America right now. The problem is this: the author declares that, because the nature of the financing provided does not allow for Brazil to take the money and buy stuff, the financing is a 'lie.'
It reminds me of prop trading. The firm gives a trader a half a million dollars or more a day to trade. He can't take that 'credit' and go out and buy houses, cars, and yachts, BUT he can take that credit into the marketplace and trade with it. It's non-fungible and it's used to meet margin (or 'reserve') requirements.
And, he can lose money, (in which case the provider of his aid will cut him off or monitor him more closely or put him with a more experienced deployer of capital or whatever), so it really <i>is</i> a loan, albeit one with strings attached.
While some prop traders are responsible financially, others, given a half a mil in the morning and a poor history of managing this amount of cash, might have it all spent on schemes, toys and girls by noon. The Latin American countries have proven themselves unfit to handle the aid they've been given so often in the past. Indeed, the lenders themselves have repeatedly shown themselves unfit to make such loans.
This type of credit, one that can't be spent, is probably the wisest kind of aid that can be given. It enables them to function, encourages them to reform, but it's not carte blanche.
Of course there is risk involved. We're dealing with money and human nature, not to mention the track record of the subjects. But there is a built in discipline to the aid. It's speaks of a responsibility on the part of the aid giver that is subtle genius. This, of course, is lost on conspiracy theorists and perpetual cynics.
</font>$30 Billion dollar IMF loan to Brazil
is
Total "Spin City Smoke & Mirrors".
Major Operation was in place to Squeeze Equity Shorts
and to
Rally Securities market
in order to
SAVE major derivative dealers facing potential credit worthiness
DOWNGRADES.
by James Sinclair
When the IMF so distorts the truth as to actually LIE about a $30,000,000,000 international loan, how can you publicly condemn corporate crooked bookkeeping and not the IMF as well? </font>
<font size=2>The IMF did not lend to Brazil $30 billion US Dollars as advertised to markets. The funds that are to be forwarded to Brazil, in 2002 & 2003 are referred to as "Museum Funds" in the international lending circles. These funds gain this title because<b> under the terms of the loan Brazil cannot use the funds for any purpose other than as non-fungible deposit to simply count as a reserve.</b> </font>
<font size=1>These funds are not exchangeable for anything. That means that Brazil cannot touch the $6 billion they will receive in 2002, or the $24 billion they will receive in 2003. This is what might be called in a police sting operation "Show Money". Yet the media headlines and the announcement by the IMF would have the equities, dollar and gold market believe that they had just laid on Brazil $30 Billions dollars which could be applied in anyway Brazil wants, most especially the demands of their short term debt so threatening to all of South America's half dead economies and half dead US money center banks appearing to be alive. A collapse of South America would severely injure major US money center banks like JPM already being rocked by other non functioning loans and quietly by totally insane, immense, irrational derivative positions.
As the equity market wilted the Federal Reserve pumped out liquidity in terms of monetary aggregates at record rates. This grease on the wheels of the market was falling flat on its face. The powers that be, seeing this, knowing a derivative disaster is nearing and seeing the dollar at a threatening level to US treasuries moved to squeeze the shorts.
The combination of the use of options and futures on equity indices and certain over shorted Dow Jones component stocks, and the reported trump card Spin City Brazil Loan, these "powers" accomplished a stampede of the short sellers thereby creating a 675-point rally. Will the general equities market see through this charade? Maybe, but I can assure you that it is my opinion that gold already has. The dollar will soon and thereafter the equities, except those that are totally bombed out and oversold (like some techs), will too.
I can't post a rebuttal at Le Cafe', so I figured I'd do it here. My problem with this article is not that I'm a fan of nor do I trust the IMF, nor am I convinced of the creditworthiness of South America right now. The problem is this: the author declares that, because the nature of the financing provided does not allow for Brazil to take the money and buy stuff, the financing is a 'lie.'
It reminds me of prop trading. The firm gives a trader a half a million dollars or more a day to trade. He can't take that 'credit' and go out and buy houses, cars, and yachts, BUT he can take that credit into the marketplace and trade with it. It's non-fungible and it's used to meet margin (or 'reserve') requirements.
And, he can lose money, (in which case the provider of his aid will cut him off or monitor him more closely or put him with a more experienced deployer of capital or whatever), so it really <i>is</i> a loan, albeit one with strings attached.
While some prop traders are responsible financially, others, given a half a mil in the morning and a poor history of managing this amount of cash, might have it all spent on schemes, toys and girls by noon. The Latin American countries have proven themselves unfit to handle the aid they've been given so often in the past. Indeed, the lenders themselves have repeatedly shown themselves unfit to make such loans.
This type of credit, one that can't be spent, is probably the wisest kind of aid that can be given. It enables them to function, encourages them to reform, but it's not carte blanche.
Of course there is risk involved. We're dealing with money and human nature, not to mention the track record of the subjects. But there is a built in discipline to the aid. It's speaks of a responsibility on the part of the aid giver that is subtle genius. This, of course, is lost on conspiracy theorists and perpetual cynics.
