on a more serious note have you lost your max on MO? why not just take the partial loss or roll to March you can watch what the ITM options do...from a distance!
Brave New World
- Thread starter Neoxx
- Start date
Where to start?
XEO - Yesterday, looking at the daily chart of the S&P 500 couldn't help but notice what appeared to be a six month cycle, which we were poised at the midpoint of, price at an apparent peak. Based on that, my bold estimation was that the S&P would drop to 1220 by the end of April.
Having considered index options for a while now, I pulled up the XEO chart, observed a similar pattern, with tangible overhead resistance at 585 and 590, so entered the 590-600 bear call spread.
Talk about tight-fisted MMs, 1.00 spread, and they insisted on keeping 80%!
SGP - Was stopped out of this on my long call, felt it was poised at the lower channel line, waiting to rise. Went ITM to treat is as a long call but without tying up much equity.
CELG - Dipped near 70, bounced, decent support 65-67.
APOL - Had been bearish on this for a while now, decided it had lounged on 56 far too long. Suggestion of resistance at 57.4, with strong, established resistance 59-60.
Was staring at the SUN, eyes wide open at the rich pickings offered by the FEB OTM bull puts spreads, only to then realise it was earnings day. Was advised to steer well clear...
EBAY was another one on the hitlist. Was waiting for it to bounce, planning to go for the 40-42.5 bull put as it passed the short strike. Alas, didn't materialise...
I was hoping to catch PALM on the way down from channel resistance. Entered my 0.70 limit order, just missed the fill and PALM proceeded to float out of reach, leaving me stranded. Over the past half hour, seems to be coming back in with the tide...
What's interesting is the seeming urgency to join the move when it's happening on the 5-minute chart, yet looking at the option chains again, my fills would have been at least as good (barring XEO), if not better, had I simply waited and entered my orders right now, an hour or so from the close.
So patience is a virtue I'll need to foster.
Now to erect some conditional safety nets as I take a four-day respite from this desert island...
Closed AAPL for a 1% loss.
Would have liked to hold it for longer, but checked with IB, and apparently impossible to enter an order for a conditional buy of the short leg, and activation of a trailstop on the long leg ONCE the short leg is filled.
In retrospect, if both conditional orders had precisely the same condition, they should activate simultaneously in theory, and a market buy should get filled virtually instantaneously.
Never mind, I'll just leave the tightrope walking to someone else...
Would have liked to hold it for longer, but checked with IB, and apparently impossible to enter an order for a conditional buy of the short leg, and activation of a trailstop on the long leg ONCE the short leg is filled.
In retrospect, if both conditional orders had precisely the same condition, they should activate simultaneously in theory, and a market buy should get filled virtually instantaneously.
Never mind, I'll just leave the tightrope walking to someone else...
Hmm, so much for that idea. Conditional GTC buy/sell orders for spreads don't seem to exist, at least as far as IB are concerned.
Leaving my portfolio in the hands of higher powers it is then.
And maybe next time I know I'm going away for a few days, I won't open ten new positions the week before!
N,
too many positions for a new options trader - in fact too many positions for a veteran. It's like you find a new trade every day. Do you really think it's that easy?
LOL
none of my business- but JMHO
I was short QCOM feb/march 50c -- short QCOM Feb 45p/long March 45p before earnings - and I saw you put on that 50/55p spread -- did you really think QCOM would hit 55 by Feb expiry? If so - why?
I am now thinking about shorting 4750 calls but hate to short QCOM atm calls. Too easy to get burned as -- from my experience-- QCOM is heavily arbed into expiry and will seek a pin level.
Now IF you look at the O/int on the front month QCOM 50c you will see
70024!!
And guess how many 50 puts?
4225
Do you think those 70 thousand calls are going to close ITM? It is possible. I don't rule it out but they already sucked all the juice out of them.
SO you'd be better off buying QAA BJ then selling a 50/55 put spread. At least you got a lottery ticket and one with BIG reward IF QCOM does trade to 55 --- which is your premise- isn't it?!!!! Otherwise why would anyone enter front month 50/55 (bullish) put spread if they didn't think the underlying was going to (had a high probability) to trade near 55.
Think about it.
Hope this helps !
I meant
AAO BJ (feb 50c)
one more thing just to help you in your thinking - since you said you are new:
you think QCOM is going to 55 based upon your analysis - OK?
d'accord?
Now - you look and see the 50c at .30 cents or so this week. Do you as a very intelligent guy think that these calls are GROSSLY undervalued? That you are the only one who thinks QCOM has a shot in the next 11 trading days at hitting a high of $55!!?This is a market of people. Not just charts. People buy and sell. Options reflect (often correctly) sentiment about the future price levels of the underlying !
No one is willing to pay more than .30 for the calls (yesterday) but yet you think it's going to 55.
What is wrong with that picture?