Position Review
SGP Aug 17.5 Call
Stopped out for a 1.5% equity loss as todayâs action plunged through my stop at 19.4.
Iâd been seeing this as a rising channel on the two-year daily chart and placed my stop just below the trendline and the recent lows. However, looking at the daily chart over the last nine months and it looks far more like a horizontal channel with a strong support at 19.
Lesson? S/R on up/down sloping channels can be notoriously subjective, but horizontal S/R is easy to discern and agree upon. And after all, itâs the majority agreement that clinches it.
Should I eliminate single-leg directional plays altogether?
CELG Feb 65-70 ATM Bull put spread
Moved up strongly, stopping just shy of 71. Resistance looming at 72.
On a related note, Celgene present at the Merril Lynch conference next Tuesday, and there has been a spate of insider selling recently. Does this suggest that the 72 level wonât be breached?
MO Mar 80-85 ITM Bull put spread
Dropped like a stone on earningâs release and the potential interest rate rise. Iâve decided to hold both MO and QCOM until expiration, unless a profitable window intervenes. For a potential 1.5% loss of equity I can observe in real-time how ITM credit spreads respond to time decay and changes in the underlying.
QCOM Feb 50-55 ITM Bull put spread
Down today, but the 20 SMA is holding as support and what was a bull flag is metamorphosing into a hybrid ascending triangle. As the 20 SMA approaches 49, I envisage QCOM being stuck between a rock and a hard place. Hopefully, it will only be going up.
SHLD Feb 125-130 ATM Bear call spread
Closed this one today for a 33% return as it bounced off support at the 119.50-120 level(1.25% equity gain). Not bad for a 24-hour play! Was glued to the 5-minute chart as soon as I got home. Set a mental stop for 120.40 and closed as soon as this was breached. In the excitement, almost launched right into an ATM bear call spread!
AAPL Feb 70-75 ATM Bull put spread
Indecision. Spinning top at s/r. Challenged 76, sellers resisted. Challenged the 50 SMA, buyers resisted. What more to say?
New positions?
Bearish
I still canât help but be bearish on APOL. While the bearish engulfing of yesterday lacked volume confirmation, todayâs unbalanced doji added weight to a drop.
My brain refuses to recognize shorting opportunities! I canât find anything else.
Bullish
Few more for contemplation here.
TXN still languishing at the rising trendline. A more concrete support level would be the mid-October lows. Iâm going long once it convinces me itâs rising.
The following stock look promising for an ATM bull put spread once theyâve bounced off their respective support levels:
SUN 90
MRVL 65
ESV 50
NEM 60
PAAS 20
And the following if they break through 30, pullback and bounce:
RHAT
RRC
Away from Friday to Monday, and new job starts next Wednesday. Despite the several potentials, wondering if I should just be content with my current lotâ¦
