Brave New World

[Neoxx]

Quote from iceman1:

I have positions in APOL

if I may ask-- where do you see a bearish engulfing pattern on APOL?

iceman1

p.s. although I am not eactly a candlestick guru - but I don't really see a true hanging man either? :eek:

Sorry, hanging man was my mistake (quite a few of those lately...).

Corrected myself in the next post.

The way I see it...

2 point rally started 24th Jan, culminated in a shooting star/gravestone doji on the 27th (which tested the lows of October 19th), and friday's real body was engulfed by today's red candle.

So IMHO today's candle completes the bearish engulfing pattern.

I realise I'm still new to this so please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from Neoxx:

Sorry, hanging man was my mistake (quite a few of those lately...).

Corrected myself in the next post.

The way I see it...

2 point rally started 24th Jan, culminated in a shooting star/gravestone doji on the 27th (which tested the lows of October 19th), and friday's real body was engulfed by today's red candle.

So IMHO today's candle completes the bearish engulfing pattern.

I realise I'm still new to this so please correct me if I'm wrong.

I am by no means going to correct anyone on candlesticks - and I do see you changed it to 'shooting star". just wanted to share information since you mentioned you are bearish on APOL. I still think APOL trades higher. But of course I am not thrilled by Friday's shooting star. I have a 60/55 backspread which is being held at a loss. Most likely I will roll out of Feb 60c/into March 60c IF I don't see APOL marked higher on Wednesday.

Tomorrow I am writing off no matter what happens since it is month's end - and I don't "think" we will see action in APOL (to the upside) IF ANY --- until start of February. My target is 62+.

I still have the "option" of selling (more) Feb55c thereby creating a bear (call) spread - but right now I am sticking with my premise that APOL --having underperformed the market in JAN-- will head back to the gap from 1/12/06 when Nelson resigned - in FEB.

icE

 

[Neoxx]

Thanks for the heads-up.

Your analysis and the piercing line on the weekly chart point up.

But I'm still concerned by the bearish engulfing and impending crossover to the downside of the 20-week SMA below the 200-week SMA.

I might just sit on the sidelines with this one.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from Neoxx:

Sorry, hanging man was my mistake (quite a few of those lately...).

Corrected myself in the next post.

The way I see it...

2 point rally started 24th Jan, culminated in a shooting star/gravestone doji on the 27th (which tested the lows of October 19th), and friday's real body was engulfed by today's red candle.

So IMHO today's candle completes the bearish engulfing pattern.

I realise I'm still new to this so please correct me if I'm wrong.

one more thing

as far as overhead resistance from a prior low-- I would submit that said resistance is the 59-60 level established 1/3/06- and not the prior October low that you opined. JMHO

 

[iceman1]

Quote from Neoxx:



I might just sit on the sidelines with this one.

that's not a completely bad idea ---

however you obviously need to follow your own ideas - and I'll concede it would not surprise me for APOL to trade to 50.

At least your idea is with the trend whereas mine is against.

 

[Neoxx]

Quote from iceman1:

one more thing

as far as overhead resistance from a prior low-- I would submit that said resistance is the 59-60 level established 1/3/06- and not the prior October low that you opined. JMHO

I agree.

59 looks as though it will pose a far more resilient barrier than 57.50.

 

[Neoxx]

Quote from iceman1:


At least your idea is with the trend whereas mine is against.

I've decided I'll learn to swim with dolphins before I scuba-dive with sharks

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

one more thing

as far as overhead resistance from a prior low-- I would submit that said resistance is the 59-60 level established 1/3/06- and not the prior October low that you opined. JMHO

i.e. near the gap resistance

 

[iceman1]

Quote from Neoxx:

I've decided I'll learn to swim with dolphins before I scuba-dive with sharks

well said...! Your (seemingly) flexible attittude and ability to introspect should serve you well.

one more-- if you have time - take a look at DNA

would be interested in your analysis of whether you see DNA trading >90 in next 5 days

I'm positioned

+ march 85c
- feb 90c
+ march 100 c

 

[iceman1]

Quote from Neoxx:

Thanks for the heads-up.

Your analysis and the piercing line on the weekly chart point up.

But I'm still concerned by the bearish engulfing and impending crossover to the downside of the 20-week SMA below the 200-week SMA.

I might just sit on the sidelines with this one.

Neoxx



re: APOL

see the candle from 1/23/06 on the weekly? THAT is an engulfing candle- non?

Now the key question is (i.e. for confirmation) --- was that a KEY reversal - i.e. was that volume sufficient to constitute such a reversal OR was it just a head-fake to distribute?!