Brand New Homes in AZ: Were $215k, Now $137k; Naples, FL - Were $450k, Now $344k

[traderdragon2]

So how do you protect your cash?
A lot of traders are liquid and need their cash to trade, day in and out. A negative 50% return via inflation sounds pretty horrible. Whats the best hedge?

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

It's a tough call. My best guess is rates take everything down and millions of weak housing longs wind up BK. Then hyper inflation hit's and fungible assets compete globally while cash get's whacked. [/B]

 

[thriftybob]

No can do. Rates can't go up like in 1980.

Economy is already on fumes, and that would bring it to a complete halt, and throw it into reverse.

Feds owe $9 trillion of adj rate. If rates go to 10% the nation is even more bankrupt than it is now.

 

[Arnie]

Quote from thriftybob:

No can do. Rates can't go up like in 1980.

Economy is already on fumes, and that would bring it to a complete halt, and throw it into reverse.

Feds owe $9 trillion of adj rate. If rates go to 10% the nation is even more bankrupt than it is now.

How do you figure that? We're bankrupt? Economy on fumes? What the hell are you drinking?

Everything is just fine!

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from atticus:

Washington, W of Ridge? Homes on Washington going for $1.2mm? I rented a house on Ouilmette between Wash and Wilmette Av when I was 20-years old. Those homes are no more than $800k now. I grew-up on Ridge in Kenilworth and our house sold for $1.8mm back in 1993. The current owners say it's appraised at $3.2mm [Indian Hill]. The high-end doesn't move at the multiples seen on the low-end, but a quadruple seems a bit much for homes on Washington.

Actually the house I saw is east of Ridge. But look at this shit on Washington west of Ridge for 1 freakin 6.

http://homes.realtor.com/map/search...425bf754aa6a3&lid=1071632836&lsn=66&srcnt=176

Here's a mil on Thornwood. When I started at LA they were building this street out. At under a hundo way back then........

http://homes.realtor.com/map/search...4aa6a3&lid=1078602843&lsn=47&srcnt=176#Detail

 

[michaelscott]

I have visited Phoenix a few times and the summer is WORST then a northeast winter. You go outside and its so hot that it feels like you are in an oven. Even dressed very lightly with shorts and t-shirt your still drenched in sweat with any activity outside. To make matters worse, where is the jobs? How does one make a living there?

Florida is better, but still, not too many good paying jobs there either.

 

[domestic]

Quote from atticus:

Washington, W of Ridge? Homes on Washington going for $1.2mm? I rented a house on Ouilmette between Wash and Wilmette Av when I was 20-years old. Those homes are no more than $800k now. I grew-up on Ridge in Kenilworth and our house sold for $1.8mm back in 1993. The current owners say it's appraised at $3.2mm [Indian Hill]. The high-end doesn't move at the multiples seen on the low-end, but a quadruple seems a bit much for homes on Washington.

jeeze....the voyeur in me wants to know...for 1.8 in 1993 (washington state?); it must have been a (really) hell of a house. my parents sold in 93 for 1.2 in fairfield, ct then. to me, it was a monster house in a primo nyc bedroom community. things have changed a lot in 14 years, but not a triple. i am just guessing, but i doubt it would go for any more than 2.8 today. anyway, they built on the water new; so they aren't kicking themselves.

i also bought a brand new condo in 1990 for 166,000 (marina w/boat slip) that previously went for 298,000 at an auction. i lived side by side with those higher paying buyers for 10 years. those people just hung on (about 40 families). i sold in 2000 for 170,000 to buy a house. then things exploded up(cheap credit). in 2005 they were selling for 350,000. today, they are selling for 280,000. will they go down any more? maybe, but fair value should be no less than 240,000 or so. it will be the same everywhere else at worst.

a normal correction as in the late 80's / early 90's is going to occur as in the previous posts. normal people will be fine. i have seen this happen 3 times since the 70's. even with those crazy loans, it was pretty crazy in it's own (read: savings and loan crisis!) way in the last crash. the bears and bulls think , "this time will be different"...but history will show this correction to be similar to the past; no matter what robert schiller says.

 

[domestic]

Quote from domestic:

jeeze....the voyeur in me wants to know...for 1.8 in 1993 (washington state?); it must have been a (really) hell of a house. my parents sold in 93 for 1.2 in fairfield, ct then. to me, it was a monster house in a primo nyc bedroom community. things have changed a lot in 14 years, but not a triple. i am just guessing, but i doubt it would go for any more than 2.8 today. anyway, they built on the water new; so they aren't kicking themselves.

i also bought a brand new condo in 1990 for 166,000 (marina w/boat slip) that previously went for 298,000 at an auction. i lived side by side with those higher paying buyers for 10 years. those people just hung on (about 40 families). i sold in 2000 for 170,000 to buy a house. then things exploded up(cheap credit). in 2005 they were selling for 350,000. today, they are selling for 280,000. will they go down any more? maybe, but fair value should be no less than 240,000 or so. it will be the same everywhere else at worst.

a normal correction as in the late 80's / early 90's is going to occur as in the previous posts. normal people will be fine. i have seen this happen 3 times since the 70's. even with those crazy loans, it was pretty crazy in it's own (read: savings and loan crisis!) way in the last crash. the bears and bulls think , "this time will be different"...but history will show this correction to be similar to the past; no matter what robert schiller says.

sorry atty, wrong state i think, just a little tired here. anyway, if it's not in nyc area, it's all the same to me....gotta go to sleep early now!

 

[atticus]

Quote from domestic:

jeeze....the voyeur in me wants to know...for 1.8 in 1993 (washington state?); it must have been a (really) hell of a house. my parents sold in 93 for 1.2 in fairfield, ct then. to me, it was a monster house in a primo nyc bedroom community. things have changed a lot in 14 years, but not a triple. i am just guessing, but i doubt it would go for any more than 2.8 today. anyway, they built on the water new; so they aren't kicking themselves.

Hey Dom, Kenilworth IL, 5500 sq feet. Here's a comp down the street: http://www.jeanwright.com/bb.winnetka3250/winnetka3250.html

 

[atticus]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Actually the house I saw is east of Ridge. But look at this shit on Washington west of Ridge for 1 freakin 6.

http://homes.realtor.com/map/search...425bf754aa6a3&lid=1071632836&lsn=66&srcnt=176

Here's a mil on Thornwood. When I started at LA they were building this street out. At under a hundo way back then........

http://homes.realtor.com/map/search...4aa6a3&lid=1078602843&lsn=47&srcnt=176#Detail

We recently bought on Ridge, and it looks as though comps have increased. Insanity. I knew the family that lived in the house in the second link.

 

[domestic]

Quote from atticus:

Hey Dom, Kenilworth IL, 5500 sq feet. Here's a comp down the street: http://www.jeanwright.com/bb.winnetka3250/winnetka3250.html

uh, maybe i under estimated how much things have gone up. nice house, identical to here. same price too. maybe there is life outside of 55 miles! i will say, i believe those houses at that price will come down some in this downturn, but not a lot.

reading your second post , i would not want to pay 1m for the 70 yr old house. maybe things should deflate a little. but like you, i also "paid to play".