BPBP Report*

They are just giving MELI away folks! I'm buying a 1/2 position @ $79.42 - $79.72 levels. It was $86 last week! SA fears over Puru election about 2% of sales!

Also taking a 3/4 position in AVGO finally it's held the $33 level throughout this mess.

VHC also looking very tempting but I'm watching. If you don't already own LYB I'd buy it.

back later after acupuncture! ~stoney
 
Bernake is speaking I should probably be listening but he won't be able to say what I want him too I don't think-- If I could I would shout these questions out:

> Of the stimulus you have added to the system how much as already bit and how much is still down the pike? There is a lag time isn't there?

> Since the recovery will be consumer driven what do you think about the credit card delinquency rates which have improved so? And what of the spending by the consumer that appears to be ramping just as oil is ready to come down? A good sign, no?

> Would you say a stock market that takes continued European default fears and a nuclear meltdown in Japan more or less in stride-- only down 5% -- is a strong market? Isn't the psychology of a strong market important here for the consumer and won't you do everything in your power to assure higher stock prices even if that is not your mandate?

> When QE2 ends, that ends the new buying of bonds. People don't seem to understand that you will reinvest what comes back in-- isn't that right? " old " Fed investments will get rolled over; it won't be " new ' funds but it will still be a heck of a lot of money at your disposal to control interest rates...
 
Woa! I'm recoiling at the review here because it's obvious I've been buying too much!

In the span of this thread it's been:

Idea # Price & Reason

1- GTXI.- $5.00
Reason: Believe Monday's earning's will come in ahead. Product already on market, more to come. Cash in hand, no secondaries, low float. Will fly.

NOW- $6.27 pretty amazing.

2- CNTF.- $5.00
Reason: This little Chinese co is going to shock the world. They have a motion control phone gaming system that is launching this month. Sales will be huge in China where WII, X-Box and other gaming platforms are illegal. Big export into Brazil too. This stock will double.

NOW- $4.30. During the span of this hold it did go up to near $7 for a big gain, if I were one of the usual types on these boards I would tell you I sold out then. Instead I'll tell you I thought about selling it.

3- ARBA. - $33.00
Reason: I like the chart set up on this name. They have completely re figured their business and now is in a very interesting place. Big backlog and surging rev. Time to buy.

NOW-$31.80. Still looks good.

4. MYGN. - $23.00
Reason: This play is a play on the court system. MYGN had been stymied about a court ruling that natural stuff, stuff that occurs in nature cannot be patented. I believe this will be overturned as we all know special ways of extracting wine from grapes and many other examples can be patented. MYGN ran into a bad judge and should they win the appeal the stock will rip. This catalyst will be news this month! -- stock used to be $40! This is a powerful med equipt/ genetics play that deserves to be AT LEAST $27.

NOW- $24.50. Pretty darn good performance. This stock is going much higher.

5. NVMI. -$10.30
Reason: They just crushed earnings! And have a $15 PT slapped on them! Buy

NOW- Are you seeing a pattern here? $10.06. We have been down for 4 weeks throughout this thread yet these names are holding up.

6. KEYN - $ 20.50
Reason: it's priced silly now $6 undervalued. Reported a great qtr already.
The company monitors the speed of such activities as conducting e-commerce transactions, downloading web pages, or using wireless applications to help clients identify information bottlenecks. It offers qualitative research and consulting services covering online behavior, industry trends, and customer satisfaction. The company generates sales through software-as-a-service subscriptions that customers pay to access data. Roughly 53% of Keynote's revenue comes from web measurements.

NOW- $19.60

7. GSM -- Bought this afternoon at $22.65. they reported stellar earnings. Room to run to $27.00 plus

NOW- $21.66. When you consider that this is a commodity like play, I'm impressed with GSM.

8. ICON- I'm close to dumping this. I'm not sure where exactly I bought it but it's a tough stk to hold-- the numbers are great but the stock is boring.

NOW- $22. I think I bought at $23

9. NXPI- This is a new tech name pick up for me. Just last week

10. AVGO- Bought this 4G name today.

11. MELI- Bought today at a nice price.

12. ZAGG- This was bought in the past two weeks at $9.20

NOW $10.50 and heading north.

13. EBS- Bought last week at $25

NOW $24. Not a good trade obviously. re evaluating.

>>>>> Now when you consider the booked gains on a few names already FOSL,HOTT,DGIT, etc and a bunch of day trades that worked out-- you see how one can invest throughout a 5% correction and make hay. In the end you are left with your strongest stocks and a good move for me when the market rights itself- will be to Double Down on the strongest names.

As to our spec plays- You would think we would get killed here...

UNIS-- You'll notice I've packed this thread with some $5 names! Here's another. They do pre filed syringes which they are about to cut a bunch of deals for!

NOW- $4.60, down slightly and still a July story!

CIGX- - re bought this name just under $4 now $4.22 BOTH UNIS & CIGX ARE EXPLOSIVE. Don't believe I profiled CIGX here because technically it's not over $5.00, I'll wait for that ET Mod-blessed moment this week and then do it!

NOW-$4.39. Flat has been to $5.30 but, again, I held.

I'm one of the last guys on the street with conviction. Not convictions.

IMMR - Still $8.00 ($7.99) We bought right around here @ $8.15.

VICL- I have several lots of this name in different accounts- the one here is about flat at $4.00 but stop if you've heard this before it did gallop up a buck to $4.99> I was inches from selling and regret it. Now a favored long term hold of course.

Jesus Christ I want to puke. It doesn't seem like that many buys when you tackle the market every day--and want to feel productive and I do a fare bit of short term trading too-- so they all merge but woa! So many names.And each and every one a gem. At least you know stoney puts his money where his mouth is. Now all I need is a rally. ~si
 
It's a morning of reflection.
Meredth Whitney is on the telly and she can't admit she was wrong.


One of the weird things for someone married and trading a lot is the way we seek information out of the smallest things and how they don't realize sometimes when we are not listening. Yesterday there was a TV piece on Bloomberg an interview with a fashion guy, an investor is some cool brands and another guy - a tech geek - talking about Facebook and the prospects. I find it all fascinating. In comes the wife just then... So and So Has Broken up! can you believe it!... And I'm ever zoning in closer and closer to the lips of the tech geek and I'm enhancing the visual and almost entering the picture as I absorb the moment without unfortunately being able to hear a damn thing because she is PRATTLING on about... yes dear... wow!. That's a big surprise... That girl was no good!--How we can do this... How we don't listen but listen enough to fake respond and with enough realness as not to get busted as a complete asshole... this ability to absorb information while deflecting other noise is a fine art developed over many years of trading and marriage.

Alright Big Picture.

Stocks are a bit of a drug themselves aren't they. I can't read the damn paper without coming up with an idea. Is it an addiction? i think so. It's also a necessity because money has to made somehow and how many jobs afford me a mid day bath?

So I must pull in the reigns somehow here yet in reading about RSA's token problems in the world of cyber security... There's a stock there I don't trade well, VDSI with a lot of promise and they are surely going to go after that RSA customer base... So I'm fighting that urge this morning as I sit here thinking about what to do today as not to buy anything. ~stoney
 
Well folks when we began this exchange the very large question of if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it... did it make a noise?- that question loomed large as the market self corrected and rotated and shat to bed...

This past weekend up in the woods I think I got my answer. I was asleep in my kid's room he of course had wandered into me and the wife's bed and pushed me out, and his room is right near the running stream and area in which I leave bird food. So bout midnight or 2 in the morning suddenly there was a blood curdling gulp and what sounded like a chicken being choked. Something was getting his or her neck broke and it wasn't pretty... who and what I did not know; was it a cat on the prowl for a late night feeding crow? Or something bigger, Mama Raccoon, did she catch something unawares? What happened was somewhat irrelevant as I layed back I thought... what if I was home in NYC that night? I wouldn't of heard the late night attack... but from the point of view of both the attacked and the attacker, it happened. It very much happened.

And that's where we stand today ready to take back half of this pitiful 7% decline.

My Stock watch Now is:

EBIX-
reason: Beaten down and controversial name, large short position, company announced they had bought back a bunch of shares and plan to buy a bunch more, the CEO bought some. Been watching this find a bottom at $18.00 level, almost bought it a few times last week. Of course it's $20.00 now. Not exactly sure at the moment when to buy this back office to the insurance industry name... but it's close.

TSLA-
reason: I have no idea. Secondary I believe is at the price it's at now, I have to firm this up, but I believe everyone has bought in at these $28.50 levels, sop there's a lot of support there and the chart is darn beautiful. Do I believe in a $100,000 electric car? No. How bout the $50,000 one down the pike? No. But hype be what hype be.... maybe the battery is the play... still working on this idea.

EXPE-
reason: I really like Trip Advisor & I contribute to it and use it for trips... as usual I've never banner clicked and never bought a product through their site so I don't know what these advertisers think they get for their efforts but in this mania for IPO's, won't Expedia spin out Trip Advisor? They already have a Groupon partnership to offload their extra rooms at 1/2 off, this company appears to be well positioned.

Those are my main ideas, I'm noting FOSL's regain of $106 with some amount of shock and awe. My quick sell there in this thread may not of been the best move.

ZAGG has been performing great!
This patent protect stock RPXC has the smell of victory all over it. It just got a downgrade from Goldman to neutral and the stk was down 4%-5% on low volume yesterday. In my better days I would of grabbed it yesterday, as a confused mid 40's type of guy, I'll keep it high on the watch list.

Folks, a word of caution here. I spoke about how not to buy a stock last week... how hard it is to not feel productive and just sit and watch things... well for me it means lunches out with booze and then rollicking, inebriated computer time wasted on things like auctions. I like to scroll through and see what's out there and indeed I found these big stone eagles I liked. Hummm. They would look real cool up in the woods where the property begins to wind into the forest. Sentinels they will be, flanking the path, what a grand idea-- and I left a bid and forgot about it.

When I came back this weekend a panicked sales rep from the auction house was on the phone... " Congrat's you got them- please come get them quick they're sooooo big....." I froze.

OH MY GOD MY STINKING MIDDLE AGED EYES.... I didn't realize these " garden ornaments " where almost 5 feet HIGH!!!! well 40 inches to be exact what is that? My eyes saw like 24', or i just saw the inches sign and figured anything measured in inches can't be that big, can it? These birdies are too much stone for me to push around in a wheel barrel I'll tell you that... THEY'RE 33 INCHES WIDE too! Now I need to move these stone giants down from Hudson NY to Ct and then get a tractor to move them on my property and then I'll pour some damn cement in a hole and roll these monsters in place and after a lot of time and money and sweat-- they are going to look like Where The Wild Things Are... and I have such a small house... it's all wrong but somehow marvelously right.

So I didn't buy any stocks last week.
But somehow I wound up with Dominick Dunne's Stone Eagles.~stoney
 
Life is weird.

Yesterday i was in Beth Israel sports medicine dept for a large portion of the day. seems like it was a good day to miss the market. Today we are faced again with the tree falling in the woods problem as all the stocks we are about to buy did just fine yesterday. What exactly is happening? Out of the loop at the Hospital for my darn ankle I told folks it was China rolling over some angry migrant workers with tanks. I really didn't have the heart to mention the word " Greece " again.

It's getting very old. Just one day after realizing we are going to have a soft landing and 2nd half acceleration of growth... we are worried about the Greeks again. What if Greece didn't exist? How is this controlling our market? Well Euro vs dollar etc... but it gets old. I'm looking at high dividend ideas for a bulk of dough that I may have to move around in the future. Little one family companies that have nice yield that sort of hide in the averages. I'm determined to start getting these " notes " I read about. These private investors with all the cash they must utilize these and the big pension funds... I'm looking at a stock like MERGE, a tiny healthcare co with a big product. they attach X-Rays to digital files of info that Dr's use and send around via computer. This Co is in the right place at the right time yet they are a $5.00 stock and vulnerable to the swings of the market. Merge gave out some 11% yielding notes due in 2015... I'm going to dig like a rat here... it's time I started getting some yield if I'm willing to sit around a few years with an idea.

This is a new direction in thinking for me.

RWT-

WPC-

Maybe Olin, I haven't checked on them in a while.

Let's see some of our possibilities...

SGMS- Traded great yesterday. revisited what now is a triple bottom at $8.50. If I know me, I'll be in this name this week.

TZOO- Traded well looksupward bound.

EXPE- still where it was before the big drop yesterday. No affect on EXPD.

TSLA- Looking solid

CRI- Nice! This is a safe safe play.

CAB- been looking up.

FOSL. Dito.

UA-- starting to include Under Armour in my scans some support forming here at $68....

LIWA- is a chinese copper and copper substitute play that is at a 52 week low, extremely dangerous obviously but my hunch is the 2nd half will have some Chinese rebound flyers. I like this name.

QLIK-- What do you say about a stock with a PE of 300 or so and doesn't go down in market sell offs? I think you just shut up and buy it! $30.00.

IIJI- This is a great unknown name they have huge one time div payout coming that you might wait to clear but check out the chart on this name vs Japan equities and you know why I'm eyeing IIJI.

RPXC- The patent protect people have soled off thanks to Goldman Sacks @ $26.45 I can't help it I like!

ARX- began charting this name.

IPGP- A big swinger and fast mover only use if you feel the market if for sure going up, past buys in the low $60.00's have paid off consistently. A fine tech co.

EBIX- where it was $20.75

scramble a buy list out of those names.

The amazing thing is despite having most likely a ripped or torn ligament that surrounds my ankle (MRI to come) I STILL work out with a trainer and don't seem to be able to admit I'm hurt. It's a stupid pride, refusal to admit that I'm getting old thing... and afterwords I pay for the pain!

Talk about a double negative. The good news? the stone Eagles have been picked up! I don't know how many men it took but they are in a truck... now where the heck to put them? And how to get them to my weekend retreat? ~stoney
 
WELL THAT DIDN'T TAKE LONG! :)

I just sent a buy order in on Cabella CAB- As soon as it settle down we are getting in. Reumors of going private were making the rounds yesterday I do not believe that to be the case. But this upgrade has helped-
- Stephens upgraded Cabela's to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm upgraded shares based on potential catalysts that include improving retail profitability, increased store grwoth, and lower charge-offs and borrowing costs. Price target is $32.

ALSO MODEST IN ON SGMS!!!! Big 1 mil share insider buy! I can't buy 1,500?

Screw the damn market my stocks look good!

watch ZAGG!

Ok a work out I do!


PS: Looking like $9.43 was the fill on SGMS and maybe as high as $24.80 on CAB, I think the boys rushed it..... ~si
 
It's a new week!

Going through the watch list the only name THAT pops out at the moment is

TSLA-

I've been watching this name as a downtrend was broken @ $24.00 and the stk made a move from $24-$30 and appears to be in a very nice retrace to $26.50.
One of the simplest ways to figure out where to buy a stock is to add on your fingers as I do how many dollars it went up and the divide by 2! It's so pathetically easy yet most chartests don't employ this tactic.

Using this method we realize that TSLA went up $6 so take away $3 and you get a buy zone right where it is now.

Add to that the secondary out of the way and an apparently sold out fleet of the fancy pants model... financing in place for the lower priced one; 2,500 or so to be made; starting sales in Canada as of last week...

Electric car maker TSLA interests me here. Although were I to buy a car it would be an International Harvester Scout 2 from about 1979!

>>>

I'm beginning to see the underpinnings for an eventual big move in Chinese stocks.
It's a swell of good feeling that began a few weeks ago with two buyouts by Private Equity forms of Chinese co's I hadn't heard of that got wacked this year add to that the detailed GS report that highlighted 2nd half China stock rally. They have not backed away from that prediction in fact they have doubled down on the idea. The upcoming IPO XNET with Google and Rupert Murdoch backing... so all we need for this tinderbox is a spark.

RenRen reports after the close-- worth watching for the market's reaction. If it's supportive, one could begin to research a number of names.

>>>

Further Down the watch list: TOP 3 (b ideas)

FOSL @ $106

EXPE @ $27

QUIK @ 30

>>>

One word of note... two time SI recommendation Ashland here at ET... both for big gains and a stk I'm presently back in has been upgraded today ASH.~stoney
 
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