BPBP Report*

S

stonedinvestor

Alright Stocksters lets shake off the lacy underwear and get back to work.
If you are confused about what is going on in the market you are not alone.
The Basic Premise Big Picture (BPBP Report*tm pending-) is as follows.

The Emerging markets are SINKING and Europe is STINKING there is only one place to invest besides London, Hong Kong, South Korea & Russia- the Good Ole' US!

That's right we have done a lot of Big Picture things right lately.

- By default (economy swoon) America has begun to be a manufacturing nation again!
Finally. I have been dreaming of this day. Back in the 90's when we made money in the market as the companies were farming out all their production to the slave wage countries, I felt disgusting and part of the problem. When a small town upstate past Syracuse sold Carrier Air conditioners out and started making them in Mexico or China I cried. Another great product given away;the company's long time workers thrown into the sea.

-What went down with the US auto industry, the " Great Restructuring " had to be done at some point to save that all important industry. Now more restructuring to come: pension funds, health plans, the nation's debt-- all have to be brought into line like the cars but can it be done without declaring bankruptcy? That's the delicate dance Ben Bernake is overseeing and the strength and weakness of the US dollar is his main tool. So far Ben has been masterful at this slow deflate.

- The time has come for a change. The US dollar must begin to go up. The massive dislocation in the commodities is but the forewarning of higher interest rates to come. But how can we have HIGHER interest rates if the Economy is slowing again? Well folks herein lays the Big Bet. The most fresh Economic Reports paint a sad picture of the economy. However careful reading and reasoning may lead one to understand that perhaps a tornado, flood/ late Easter bad weather everywhere, Japan shut down sort of mix screwed up the numbers?

- Could it be that we have gotten to an equilibrium point where America exports and folks work here for real wages and make real American things and we sell into China and not vice versa? We are oh so close. Could it be that OUR STOCK market becomes the one that goes UP and all this money in Brazil, China and elsewhere invests here? I think so.

- Preventing another Flash Crash is the most important factor now in rebuilding belief in the US market and our rally.

- Boosting employment levels is the second most important factor.

- Housing would be the third leg of the stool.

- The apparent V shape of the recovery should have this market retouch it's old high-- where was that? I forget- DOW 14,000. Why not? Earnings are much purer now and the days of cost cutting are done, actual top and bottom line growth is the norm now in powerful stocks. The markets PE is reasonable. It's time to buy.

What To Buy? Ah, that is always the question....

Idea # Price & Reason

1- GTXI.- $5.00
Reason: Believe Monday's earning's will come in ahead. Product already on market, more to come. Cash in hand, no secondaries, low float. Will fly.

2- CNTF.- $5.00
Reason: This little Chinese co is going to shock the world. They have a motion control phone gaming system that is launching this month. Sales will be huge in China where WII, X-Box and other gaming platforms are illegal. Big export into Brazil too. This stock will double.

3- ARBA. - $33.00
Reason: I like the chart set up on this name. They have completely re figured their business and now is in a very interesting place. Big backlog and surging rev. Time to buy.

4. MYGN. - $23.00
Reason: This play is a play on the court system. MYGN had been stymied about a court ruling that natural stuff, stuff that occurs in nature cannot be patented. I believe this will be overturned as we all know special ways of extracting wine from grapes and many other examples can be patented. MYGN ran into a bad judge and should they win the appeal the stock will rip. This catalyst will be news this month! -- stock used to be $40! This is a powerful med equipt/ genetics play that deserves to be AT LEAST $27.

5. DGIT. -$34.00
Reason: Yes they just missed. Yes they are in digital advertising and yes this is probably a good pick up on weakness.

6. ENTR. -$9.00
Reason: Rumors of a take out seem to have supported this name as of late.

7. HOTT. -$7.10 ($7.30 now)
Reason:Up 10% yesterday this retailer looks to be in the right place now having ditched their move into " goth " and gotten back to the rock T shirts.

8. FOSL. -$92.00
Reason:Recently hit $96 where truth be told I sold. I got back in yesterday and so should you.

9. NVMI. -$10.30
Reason: They just crushed earnings! And have a $15 PT slapped on them! Buy

10.
Reason: I'm forgetting the name of this company right now. Back to you on that, have to check my accounts. It's a tech stock-- I gave it out to DB for an earnings play. I still own it. (for now just use SPRD)

One of the drawbacks to stonedinvesting is you do have these moments of forgetting what you bought and having to ask people if you put this or that into their account or your own. It's actually a good thing because you can't panic out of a rotating stock market and sell a long term winner if you can't find it.... ~stoney
 
Ok Found it! Keynote Sysytems.

KEYN - $ 20.50
Reason: it's priced silly now $6 undervalued. Reported a great qtr already.
The company monitors the speed of such activities as conducting e-commerce transactions, downloading web pages, or using wireless applications to help clients identify information bottlenecks. It offers qualitative research and consulting services covering online behavior, industry trends, and customer satisfaction. The company generates sales through software-as-a-service subscriptions that customers pay to access data. Roughly 53% of Keynote's revenue comes from web measurements.

>>>>>

One More For the Love!

UNIS-- You'll notice I've packed this thread with some $5 names! Here's another. They do pre filed syringes which they are about to cut a bunch of deals for! ~si
 
Only 81 views? Either I've lost my bombastic touch or a lot of the smart folks have left this site. I am at a transitional period right now folks; having finally almost realized my dream of monetizing a web site domain that I have sat on-- I am about to start an important new project from scratch-- a project that will change the way you go to the bathroom forever....

Still I take the time to spill my guts for free & to give not 1, not two but approx 11 of my best bets and only 162 eyeballs absorb it? This is Elite Trader right? We used to have like 90,000 views... I've been stopped in busy bars for the picks I've given out here in the past....

They say the small investor isn't back in the market but I thought for sure the Elite Traders would be there.

Anyway, we've got earnings reports in from both GTXI & FOSL! I'll read them better after I take my kid to school, work out, go all the way downtown to see if these eyeglass frames at Oliver People's look right and then scramble back homefor a delivery.

NAMES THAT I'm LOOKING AT HARD NOW: IMMR & GMO
*Name I bought the other day: CIGX

~stoney
 
Ok I have a minute for some updates. I guess just coming on here at the height of panic with the world ending and stopping that stock slide once again to the moment to the instant-- that's not good enough to get any STARS on ET.

So one gives away every great pick and in return gets..... Nothing. No STARS. Indeed I took the time to construct a special bullet proof portfolio for you all, a special ET portfolio, constructed for you all with no small amount of hours put in-- probably 70 or so. And not a thanks in the bunch. Not a STAR.

You can read this stk section of Elite till your eyes turn blue and get not one stk as fun as these 13!!!!!!. I just hope they grow to the moon so the certain few of you that are following closely get rich.

UPDATE-

dea # Price & Reason

1- GTXI.- $5.00 NOW>>>>>SLOW & STEADY $5.69
Reason: Believe Monday's earning's will come in ahead. Product already on market, more to come. Cash in hand, no secondaries, low float. Will fly.

2- CNTF.- $5.00. REVVING SLOW & STEADY $5.52. Looks ready to explode.
Reason: This little Chinese co is going to shock the world. They have a motion control phone gaming system that is launching this month. Sales will be huge in China where WII, X-Box and other gaming platforms are illegal. Big export into Brazil too. This stock will double.

3- ARBA. - $33.00- SHE'S A MOVING $ 35.00! And a soon a lot more!
Reason: I like the chart set up on this name. They have completely re figured their business and now is in a very interesting place. Big backlog and surging rev. Time to buy.

4. MYGN. - $23.00- SHE'S A NOT MOVING $23.72???? Common' Court case!
Reason: This play is a play on the court system. MYGN had been stymied about a court ruling that natural stuff, stuff that occurs in nature cannot be patented. I believe this will be overturned as we all know special ways of extracting wine from grapes and many other examples can be patented. MYGN ran into a bad judge and should they win the appeal the stock will rip. This catalyst will be news this month! -- stock used to be $40! This is a powerful med equipt/ genetics play that deserves to be AT LEAST $27.

5. DGIT. -$34.00 SOLD BOUNCE @ $36.50. OUT.
Reason: Yes they just missed. Yes they are in digital advertising and yes this is probably a good pick up on weakness.

6. ENTR. -$9.00 . Now $9.36 (Not purchased yet-watching)
Reason: Rumors of a take out seem to have supported this name as of late.

7. HOTT. -$7.10 ($7.30 now) (Not purchased yet. Never retraced.)
Reason:Up 10% yesterday this retailer looks to be in the right place now having ditched their move into " goth " and gotten back to the rock T shirts.

8. FOSL. -$92.00- SOLD TODAY AT $107! How bout them apples! 4 day hold!
Reason:Recently hit $96 where truth be told I sold. I got back in yesterday and so should you.

9. NVMI. -$10.30- $11.35 AND LOOKING GOOD! TOP PICK****
Reason: They just crushed earnings! And have a $15 PT slapped on them! Buy

10. KEYN. ,KEYNOTE ABOUT TO BREAKOUT ! $ 21.97 buy NOW!

11. UNIS $ 5.00 MARCHING UP $5.67! THIS WILL BE THE BIG WINNER I BELIEVE IN THE LONG RUN.

11. CIGX- - re bought this name just under $4 now $4.22 BOTH UNIS & CIGX ARE EXPLOSIVE. Don't believe I profiled CIGX here because technically it's not over $5.00, I'll wait for that ET Mod-blessed moment this week and then do it!

12. GSM-- Bought this afternoon at $22.65. they reported stellar earnings. Room to run to $27.00 plus

WATCH LIST// IMMR // MRGE // GMO // ENTR // HOTT ~stoney
 
Folks I'm talking while trading today and using my voice recognition software! Here's today's BPBP!

It's hard not to notice the market has taken a noon swoon here. The reason apparently is the strong dollar. I don't believe that-- I certainly hope that's not the case we must have a stronger dollar and we can't have stocks sell off at every jigger up. More likely and more ominously this sell off today is about the Insider trading case. If this spreads like wild fire it won't be good for the markets.... if people think the only way to get ahead is to get a tip well... that's, hold on. The phone is ringing.

really? At 3:00 today. Spell that again. V-I-C-L. got it!

Sorry. Anyway this bares watching. As well watch the watch list! Which I always do-- look for stocks that have gone up but don't go down when the market turns down. What does that tell you about willing sellers?

That makes my buys for next week> HOTT & IMMR!
and I did buy VICL @$4.00. ~stoney
 
Good Thursday Morning! Or is it?

man I woke up in a mood today and after a brief warm up against the wife I went one on one with mom for a few harrowing minutes on the phone. Sometimes these wake and bake research sessions can unravel you! But throw on a mother who all the sudden is trying to buy the house directly above you in the country for fun. " just to be there " and all hell can break loose.

What's up with mother market? Bit of a bear trap unfolding, all that commodity money is going to go into tech and banks, it's a huge relief to consumer plays the pillar of the economy. What matters is that things are clicking here, manufacturing is on the rise and jobs are being created, people are buying retail, the economy is after a hickup, about to re accelerate from 2% growth- large house loans are being ofted to banks again-- from the Gov and loans are being offered. Wars are ending. Greece may be a few olive jars short this year. Terrorists are dying and don't you think we are about to get some results from that ' treasure trove ' of data? I would guess next week might be fry a terrorist week as a couple more big shots are taken out.

If Gold goes to $1000.00 who cares! My wife was buying it by the spool full a couple years back at $400.00. I've been a clipping and selling ever since! Cramer got on TV and got all his minions lathered up to put 25% of their portfolio into silver-- what did you think was going to happen? These metals go up and down but with oil you have the added oomph of these index funds I bet-- I'm hoping for a big overshoot to $85 a barrel but in that hope must all stocks get creamed?

Alright Top 3 Ideas For Next Week are:

HOTT // IMMR // ONXX

In the value dumpster I'm now watching VALE closely at $28-$29 I'm a buyer especially in my kids custodial.

VICL had a very nice presentation at BAC/Merryl yesterday!
http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/baml/healthcare2011/id15322550.cfm

It's not often a Bio CEO actually says we have designed the trial so " we are going to win." Hitch a Ride with this company folks! I bought a modest 2,500 shares.~si
 
173?

Jesus, let me remind you Et'er's just who the hell I am, there has never been a stockster on ET who gives out the plays before they happen. Always it's in retrospect. I have ALWAYS blogged here on events before they happen. Folks like to bitch and moan that it's impossible to predict the market and time and again I have shown that with enough Ganja you can. You can search here for any amazing stock and undoubtedly you will see earlier works by me talking about it.

I have another life you know- I blog intently on the NY Giants, that takes up the entire football season and (alas) lasts into the draft even when the Giants don't make the playoffs. I have just finished my work there and so I turn my attention to Elite Trader.

For just 173 of you to remember me is an absolute freak out for me. I have given out on this site at last count 300 or so picks and my hit rate is 87% or higher with honestly I can't think of one loser. In that breadth of work I have given out $40 winners that's right a stk that moved $40 I have given out several 300% winners and the usual out performance on the downside that I'm known for-- my stocks usually hold up well.

Honestly folks, I've had Hedge Funds try to capture me, I've had other investing sites hold symposiums discussing me... and here for some reason... the love is light. I imagine that's because we have a lot of pro's here. A lot of bitter bitter pros who just can't come to terms with the fact that a lone sole can take on the market for over 20 years and do much better than them while being stoned the whole time.

For some reason they can't take it. I could tell you stories about the old days... Smith Barney stories CSFB stories.... Oh man I have some doozies, I never worked at these places, just loitered w the brokers but in each case everyone loved me until they found out more about the process. I guess when you find your idea man with his head out the window blowing smoke rings at 6 in the morning... it's got to make you think... how do I tell my investors about this?

Folks, it hasn't been a miracle smooth ride. i ran an IRA from $27K to zero in the internet days, I had HAL into the toilet, Global Crossing, Loral Space, I could go on and on... I've taken my lumps (Mexico 80's)... SNL crisis- the TV show and S&L, I've seen my own tears on the desk believe me-- that's why I developed this system... one that took fear out of the equation and encouraged bigger thinking.
Big Picture Thinking. And that's where we are at this morning.

Friday.

YESTERDAY VICL WENT FROM $4.00 to $4.80 after the presentation (brought to you all first by me ) was acted upon by Brokers. Judging from my inbox I'd say only about 12 of you 173 took the advice.

Oh and the Bear Trap Call was nice too!

Adding VALE & GA to Watch List* ~stoney

PS: I hope you know I was joking when I had my phone in tip on VICL, the idea came as every day's ideas do by long hours of research from 5:30 in the morning on, in this case taking apart 10 ASCO presenters and finding the most relevant pick for timely movement.
 
STOP THE WORLD I WANT TO GET OFF EDITION!

Welcome folks to the BPBP Report!

Wow I have been planting blueberry bushes in the wood and getting constant updates along with a bad cough. What an amazing amount of nothingness going on! On the telly they are absolutely end of the world in their thinking--we are topping! we are topping! The RS is lagging! ... yet don't leave the market, the usual stuff. Yes a bunch of bad economic news came in and not all of it backwards looking.

Folks should know The Conference Board Leading Economic Index DID decline 0.3% in April and that decline was the first monthly decline since June 2010.

Because the word " leading " is in there this always spooks and it did me. Luckily I have folks who explained to me that the decline is due to statistical issues rather than real problems.

- The initial claims level, which contributed -0.33 percentage points to the index, was weak because of poor seasonal adjustment factors. These claims will revert in short order to March levels.
- The index of supplier deliveries contributed -0.21 percentage points to the leading indicators index. This is the sign of a hot sector not cold actually. We have pulled back from high levels but can remain here for a while. This number is likely enhanced by the building permits slowdown. Building permits declined in April, whereas the consensus expected a modest increase. The lack of growth resulted in building permits contributing -0.11 percentage points to the leading indicators index. A lot of reversible stuff... no end of manufacturing for that we have the Philly # and the Empire but I chose not to see that.

Of course people are missing the improving job picture and the strength of spending. Folks are spending! Read the monthly credit card reports!

What confuses economists and alike is that this is a housing led downfall and a housingless recovery. That means the economy is laboring without the usual kicker of strong housing and building and everything that goes into new houses and all the people who supply the pools and saunas and landscaping and deliver the trees and on and on and on. It's a mega important part of the US economy and a part we are COMPLETELY lacking this time around. Think about that next time you knock the speed of the recovery.

Actually we are doing quite well. End a war and we might have something. I'd give a foreclosed home to every soldier and that way we would wipe out the excess inventory problem in one fell sweep. With dirt cheap homes off the market, the rest will sell. And it's a write off for Uncle Sam! By the way I'm hearing we are about to get some news about the terrorist hunt. It's been too quiet since those Bin Laden records were seized... we are going to have a rat trap moment when in one fell swoop a whole bunch of terrorist folks get arrested and or killed.

Yes there is a huge rush into safe stocks apparently in the week I'm in the wood. By the time we get cracking next Tuesday it will be back to commodities. Is tech wounded here? Yes. Is there a PC slowdown? Yes. Is the slowdown because of tablets? Yes.
Now the mad rush for different sort of tech, a tech that implies and facilitates social networking. This might not be good for the stonedinvestor because I consider things like Twitter absolute crap. I've never heard of Linked In and just barely Groupon although I've made money off Travelzoo! Travel, dinner tables, coupons- I can grasp that. Sucking in users to chit chit about what toothpaste they are using and what band they want to see all the while you sell their info and bombard them with unwanted adds... this is not a business plan I can or want to examine. More and more crappy IPO's are sure to come forward now and things will culminate with Facebook.... That might be Techs Mayan calender 2012 moment! Only then after that great Facebook fanfare will I start selling my tech in this bull run.

Sorry for the short check in. I've got two large Dogwoods on the way, 300 pound rootballs & I'm sure to get a hernia. Everyone is scared. Everyone sees a market in retreat. Everyone. Not one going the other way. All I see is a rotational correction and not even an official one at that.~ stoney
 
Friday BPBP*

Good Morning everyone!

Lets take this Friday morning to catch our breath, start to gather together a watch list and make some more sense of this market; then we'll take a look see how our stocks are doing.

The negativity yesterday was almost too much to bare. Why must the stock market go down now? The basic reason it seems is that elsewhere is slowing down. Elsewhere can only mean one place China. When are we going to stop worrying about China? In China they are considering moving to a two child policy, imagine that, a society that allows you to have two children... we are letting THAT dictate our market? China is going to continue to overuse the world's supplies of everything until they make a giant misstep-- perhaps until the Chinese stock market really crashes, until then it's game on.

It's hard not to notice the amount of Chinese stks that are biting the dust. Fraud and mistrust everywhere-- can they just pick up and list over in London as was the threat a year ago? I don't think so. Can we invest here in the states in the few Chinese names left untarnished? I'm not sure anymore.

The CEO of Linked In is bothersome. What a sham. I've never seen a commercial for the site so they're saving money there but as far as I can tell this is some sort of B to B site where businesses sell stuff and re check in on their auctions ONCE A MONTH! hardly the type of SOCIAL NETWORKING that a Facebook provides... anyway so this foolish young man can't answer straight any questions about valuations or why the parent co is not receiving one dollar from this IPO... instead he can just saunter to the terminal and make the first symbolic trade-- a sell I imagine. Am I bitter I was left out of the allotment of IPo shares? Perhaps; I'll wait for Facebook before applying any leverage or just crying in public to get a few shares.

Folks you should know that yours truly has become part of this " talent grab " in the Social Net circles.... yup after ten years of sitting on a Domain Name, I have completed a transaction in which I am transferring my URL in return for $7 grand and 10,000 shares in a company YET to go Pink Sheet... I'm reading that these big Social Network sites are buying up companies just for the people, the engineers that work there... and then dropping the product that the swallowed up company produced. That's not happening here folks!!!! I may still be around blogging on the new site! In fact I came this close to breaking ground and establishing the first " pay per blog " set up in Net history-- I would of paved the way for countless others to work out of their home and get paid for it, I would of established a scale, an amount each blog was worth.... Those talks broke down unfortunately, so instead I take my $7 grand and realize that there is a market for Claiming web domains and then hoping someone else buys it from you. With that in mind I have claimed a new one-- just yesterday-- and I don't mind telling a few friends about it now-- it's a high minded art concept called Coffeeandablowjob.com.

The way I envision the project it's sure to return some big dollars. I have one other in the works but this one I can't be so forthright about-- I'll just ask the question:
How Would You Like To Make Money Out Of The Smallest Room in Your House or Apt? And leave it at that.

So suddenly I too am a web player! If the parent company who bought my URL does manage to go public and achieve say $3.00 on the pinks then well do the math 10,000 X 3 = $30,000 plus the $7K. Not bad for a $50 investment.

How Bout Dem Apples?

Lets take a look at some stk ideas in my head now for there are few--

(a) EBIX- this is a highly sensitive stk that has wild swings, it appears to be in the grips of a powerful short selling force and has as many admirers as detractors; honestly the eventual outcome could go either way but at $20.00 I'm about ready to take a chance with this back bone play to the insurance world.

(b) IMMR- In tech you have the " Touch " stocks like SYNA and then you have the " Motion " stks like IMMR. Selling into both medical devices and home gaming, this is a great company and ready to roar off $8.00.

(c) HOTT- We've got our slight pull back, waiting for a bit more....

(d) CAB- My hedge fund helpers have given me some warnings on management here and also brought to my attention the fact that Cabella stores tend to be out of the way and a good drive, meaning $'s for gas to get there... still I see plenty of upside for a retailer that sells guns in an semi upscale way... and they have a clothes line too.

(e) FOSL- Already made a killing on this name twice, so getting back on the horse for a third ride is never easy... In fact I whiffed on it yesterday at $101. The fact is watches are all the rage now around the world. You can't buy Swatch here but that's another real interesting company now.

(f) CE- Celenese the chemical play, holding just a few bucks underf it's high, CE looks very powerful here, a couple years out they are going to be in China and making Ethanol from their chems in a way I don't presently understand... no corn though! That part I get.

(g) ICON- This assembly of strange brands is a well run co with nice margins, ICON flies under the radar a bit, they just offered some notes to market which have a convert rate well above the share price and cost the co only 2.2% yield-- that $ raise will go into buying a new brand or two. I like this name a lot.

(h) ONXX- I'm back N forth on this name. Mostly on the buy side; stk has been almost too strong which is scary.

(i) EXEL- a more spec name than ONXX but one with a product that might actually do more survival wise against their targets than ONXX's and theirs (Multiple M)

(j) NXPI- This chip stock is in the right place. their NFC tech allows the buying of stuff through your mobile phone, for now they absolutely control the market. the rumor of the the new I Phone from Apple having this NFC tech is what has me hovering around this name; I'm pretty sure Intel is going to wind up buying them at a huge premium... at some point this name has to be bought, but when?

(k) IPGP- This laser play is being used by all the chip fabrication factories, it's the newest of the new but stk has had a huge run.

(l) SNCR- Syncing of mobile phones to computers and whatever else is not going away. Every time you change cell carriers and import info or just change phones and carry over info SNCR software is used.

(j) AVGO- Another tech name I'm charting, at the moment I forget what they do. I remember City had a call on them yesterday which said they felt it would be a top tech stk for 2nd half 2011 and to use any capital raises to load up-- read secondary on the way! Waiting. This stk Chart-wise is dynamite and wants to go well over $40.00.

(k) ZIOP- A stk I profiled right here on ET many moons ago! We took it from $4 area to where it is now but ZIOP has a lot more in store for us as we follow the trials of their natural arsenic compound. I'm Considering buying more of this name.

(l) Gluu- Glu Mobile a stk I've known for a long while and never really came to grips as to whether they are real or not. With all this social networking stuff, these guys are getting more attention because I guess their games are more " share with others type games " I'm still looking into the name but good old Dan Niles was on the telly yesterday and he mentioned the name as a holding of his which brought some amount of legitimacy to the concept.

Well there you have it folks-- my mind this morning -- without natural assistance!
~stoney
 
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