BP is gone. Under 5 in 12 months

[crash n burn]

Quote from atticus:

$20B escrow. Long BP 31.30

$20B is for starters.

i think they'll have filet mignon and desert as well.

the cost "fixing up" the gulf wont be less than $200B.

as of today there's still thousands of barrels begin spilled into the ocean on a daily basis.

the US government wont let the british empire get away with this.


EDIT: chances of BP bankruptcy are in 30-40% level at this point.

 

[kinggyppo]

What is the total cost gonna be, hard to say will $20 B cover it? Its an awful lot of money. Hard to say what the total cost will be, also it is hard to measure the good will impairment.

 

[[Proximo]]

Decent chance this gaps up tomorrow.

Looking to position myself into the close (small) if the price is right.

 

[nickdes]

I too think it has a chance, a chance for 5-10 percent up or down.

 

[myoffices]

Every trader recognizes this is a dream trade. Its Volitile and it will go up and down. Its swings will be subtle but the net direction will be negative. BP is the Govt's katrina empowerment fund. Also The Governor of LA will not miss this opportunity to maximize his net effect of BP as catalyst for his political career and neither will OBAMA.

I say charges for fraud will be filed against BP execs right before the election.

3-5% swings either way. Any good straddle strategies.
If I was an exec at BP I would be selling against the box.

 

[Sam Mcgee]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VfypUzx1tI

 

[asiaprop]

give me a break, you sound like the USA Today reporter. Why would the CEO get convicted? On what grounds? Has negligence even been proven yet? There was a hearing and that was all to it. So keep your rhetoric at home.

20 billion is huge, but if it means thats the upper ceiling then I guess thats what BP is gonna take. I am at a complete loss of words how BP handled this issue and how they pussied out of fighting those outrageous claims the administration made. I guess when you are too international and connected its hard to simply pull out. But to agree with a signature that 1/4 of your whole market cap is shaved off by some lunatics with lofty expectations is beyond my comprehension.

20 billion is ridiculous and only shows how the American propaganda machine has only raped the world once again (I am reminded of almost each and every time when a takeover of an American tech company by a central European firm was announced and how they always overpaid and bought almost at the market top). There is zero justification to demand 20 billion other than emotions and anger (which account probably for 16 billion, the other 2 billion is to clean up and another 2 billion for lost wages of fishermen and workers on rigs that stopped operating).

Quote from myoffices:



The Obama administration has to get tough and show its teeth. I think TONY from BP is feeling the Bite. may even be arrested like the execs at ENRON. Its time to show the world that The Govt means business. Notice that no other oil company has reached out with any solutions.

Its like a whore with HIV at a Whore house...

BP will fight but it will be sold to a competitor. Govt bailed ot Merrill and BAC but not Bear stearns. This is the Bear Stearns of this industry. The 2.50 calls in Jan may be risky but may show a premium.

The amount wasted is enormous. How about buying garbage from all the municipalities across the country and continue to fill the hole. its time to let the volunteers in and use the basic ideas of common sense. Every bird that dies creates further bacteria in the system. Not trying to dog BP but the management is inadequate and with no leadership its time to capitalize on a short. And no one will buy them now.
I see a 28 price by two weeks if not sooner.

 

[asiaprop]

are you stupid? For 200billion I buy 3 Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi together and would hopelessly overpay, given in what desperate state of affairs their budgets are. You must be kidding me!!! You are the perfect representation of a dog that barks very loud when there is blood on the street, yet under normal circumstances you can hardly make a life. Its absurd to hear about how united Americans can suddenly be when it comes to scream for 20 billion plus while the real cost to clean up would more rationally amount to 2-3 billion. When this is over the man on the street goes back to fighting to death which car should be awarded the top spot in the annual rankings or whether Democrats or Republicans can burn money at a faster rate. How much more absurd can it get in that country? Seriously...if I was a citizen I would feel utterly ashamed, being the educated and rational minority among 97% of idiots and day dreamers.

Quote from crash n burn:

$20B is for starters.

i think they'll have filet mignon and desert as well.

the cost "fixing up" the gulf wont be less than $200B.

as of today there's still thousands of barrels begin spilled into the ocean on a daily basis.

the US government wont let the british empire get away with this.


EDIT: chances of BP bankruptcy are in 30-40% level at this point.

 

[asiaprop]

so a few weeks ago everyone said 1.5billion is a lot of money to clean this up. Now that every local redneck channel reports about this you changed your mind and think 20billion may not be able to cover it? What changed your mind? The change in estimate of daily spill? Surprised the initial estimate was 2k-5k and now its like what, 40-60k? LOL, ups we sent our best admirals and experts and they just discovered the leak is actually 10 times larger? Is that what changed your mind?

Quote from kinggyppo:

What is the total cost gonna be, hard to say will $20 B cover it? Its an awful lot of money. Hard to say what the total cost will be, also it is hard to measure the good will impairment.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from asiaprop:

so a few weeks ago everyone said 1.5billion is a lot of money to clean this up. Now that every local redneck channel reports about this you changed your mind and think 20billion may not be able to cover it? What changed your mind? The change in estimate of daily spill? Surprised the initial estimate was 2k-5k and now its like what, 40-60k? LOL, ups we sent our best admirals and experts and they just discovered the leak is actually 10 times larger? Is that what changed your mind?

Dude go fuck yourself!!