Boy Who Cried Bear Says We Are Going Down

[S2007S]

This guy can be seen on fast money some days and during the half time report other days, as you can see from his genuine opinion he says that "nothing matters" that "fear of not owning stocks should drive the indexes", talk about a person who doesn't even give some thought as to why these moves are occurring in the first place and to think these quotes remind me of 2007 all over again.


Gary Kaminsky talks about a "MELT UP" in stocks:

We’re in a melt-up, explains veteran trader Gary Kaminksy and I expect it to continue through the end of the quarter. Right now fundamentals don’t matter. The fear of not owning stocks should drive the indexes. I’m a buyer of the broad market and expect larger names to see money flow.

None of that matters, says Gary Kaminksy. I expect commodities to melt-up as well as the indexes. Again the underlying feeling among portfolio managers is fear of not participating.

CALL THE CLOSE

Gary Kaminsky: Nothing matters, this is a melt-up and fear of not-to own will drive stocks. I’d buy the broad market on the expectation that larger names will continue to see money flow.

 

[fkbsuhites]

I haven't watched TV in 5 years. I had no idea that the coke head Kudlow was still on TV predicting the same number I posted. Usually the coke heads calls have been a fade.

As much as I despise some of the tea bagging low lifes on here, and I therefore refrain from making posts that benefit these low lifes, my suggestion to the good folks is to refrain from selling this market. If you have to trade, hold your nose and buy long every dip.

Unless ES breaks below 1115 next few months it will see 1300 area because of many reasons. Also V bottoms do not capitulate easily and there will be a blow off top. In the near term next week there is a very high probability of re-testing the 1150 break area and I may very well sell and cover at 1150. However my primary core position is on the long side.

The numbers I give are usually golden.

Quote from S2007S:

yea that guy on cnbc this morning, Larry was his name said that that in 2 weeks the spx goes to 1200 and 1300 by april, said no reason to sell, said markets are only going up.

 

[S2007S]

Stocks Rally Again But "Zombie Market" Faces "Major Risks," Bleier Says
Posted Mar 17, 2010 02:11pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, XLF, SPY, QQQQ, FNM, FRE

Stocks were higher midday Wednesday, putting the Dow on track for a seventh-straight gain while the S&P 500 moved to its highest level in 17 months.

In what's become a familiar pattern, the rally is occurring on low volume and without any of the drama investors have become accustomed to in the past two years. That's good news but it's also a sign of what Scott Bleier, president of CreateCapital.com, calls a "zombie market," where the vast majority of trading volume is computer driven and occurs at the open and during the last 10 minutes of the session.

Bleier's theory -- which definitely has some "conspiracy" elements -- is that policymakers at the highest levels of government have come to the realization that "it's the capital market tail that wags the economy's dog."

While there's no way to prove the "plunge protection team" is in the market buying futures to make sure major averages stay above "critical" levels, what is true is the Federal Reserve has taken extraordinary measures to aid the financial markets.

By keeping rates at zero for an "extended period," the Fed has allowed the banks to repair their balance sheets by earning the spread between the fed funds rate (effectively zero) and the "risk-free" rate of return on 10-year Treasuries, which is hovering around 3%. This "free money" trade is a big reason why banks have been sitting on TARP funds, rather than lending them out.

But the Fed's comments about buying mortgage-backed securities are at least as important as the comments about rates, Bleier says. The Fed has pledged to purchase $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities. In effect, the Fed is allowing banks and brokers to park their "toxic" assets on the Fed's balance sheet and given the investment community cash equivalents in exchange. "They then turn that into investable dollars. They leverage it up and buy stocks, bonds and commodities," Bleier says.

While one of many factors, the Fed's MBS purchase program is the single-most important reason why the financial markets have risen so dramatically in the past year, Bleier suggests.

That being the case, the critical question is what happens if, as currently planned, the Fed winds down the program at the end of the month?

Along with raised earnings expectations, this "hand-off between a government-supported market and a market that can stand on its own two feet" is the "major risk" facing the bulls, Bleier says. "We have not see any technical signs to bail from this current rally [but] we have got our finger on the trigger."

Rest assured he is not alone in that pose, another reason the recent move higher is lacking volume and conviction.

 

[Lojanica]

Quote from S2007S:


Rest assured he is not alone in that pose, another reason the recent move higher is lacking volume and conviction.

This level of intervention is historic and also why investing is tricky as the one constant is change. Admittedly the flaw in my analysis has been the level of comitment by the FED to prop up this ailing economy.

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from Lojanica:

This level of intervention is historic and also why investing is tricky as the one constant is change. Admittedly the flaw in my analysis has been the level of comitment by the FED to prop up this ailing economy.

That is essentially what i have been saying this entire thread.

So who's ready for another up day? 15 out of 15?

 

[S2007S]

This is the problem, who says that a pullback of 4% maybe even 10% or even 20% in that matter makes it a "dooms" Sayers event after the fact markets are up nearly 80% from 1 year ago. No one is really anticipating a collapse, maybe just a slight 8-10% correction. These bulls just don't get it, they think an a minor 1% pullback is not even a possibility.


Charts: Don't Believe the S&P Doom Sayers
Published: Thursday, 18 Mar 2010 | 7:36 AM ET
Text Size
By: CNBC.com

The S&P's recent gains are not set to be swept away in a "wave of risk aversion" as many market watchers think, and the index could push higher toward 1,250 points, Mark Sturdy, director at SevenDaysAhead.com, told CNBC Thursday.

"This is a sort of antidote to a strain of analytical thinking that the market is set for a wave of risk aversion and that we are vulnerable here," Sturdy said.

The S&P 500 [.SPX 1166.21 --- UNCH (0) ] is undergoing a large "head and shoulders reversal (pattern) that still has some way to go. The target for the reversal is 1,250 (points)," he said.

The index's reversal happened at its 2002 lows of 767 points and the bottom was formed at that low, Sturdy said.

The S&P closed 1,166.21 on Wednesday.

 

[Ivanovich]

S+P down less than 1/10th of a point. Buy this dip!

(joke)

 

[S2007S]

Lift off once again,

SPY ETF going for 15 straight

Dow going for 8 straight.

 

[Trvlwanderer]

RSI new parameters:

Consider conditions overbought when RSI over 99 for at LEAST 10 days in a row.

Anything lower is severely oversold.

 

[Lojanica]

Quote from Trvlwanderer:

RSI new parameters:

Consider conditions UNDERbought when RSI over 99 for at LEAST 10 days in a row.

Anything lower is severely oversold.

Fixed it.

Now shorts are afraid. So the market will do the Nov 09 - Jan 10 sideways low vol shuffle with 0.2 % and 0.4% selloffs. Once the market gets conditioned to these and stops making upward motion, thne with some news we can sell-off. Sell-offs are good. In fact had the FED been less accomodating and allowed the Feb sell-off to gain more momentum they would have sucked in the money off the sidelines which would have fueled a longer and stronger bull.