Boy Who Cried Bear Says We Are Going Down

[athlonmank8]

Stopped out over previous highs on that last 1/2.

Had to try it.

Picture for Ivan....what I was looking at. This was the channel from a while back.

 

[coolweb]

Quote from noddyboy:

EWZ up 79 bps
GLD up 165 bps

this is could be why you fail in trading, "sheep"
Do you quote by bps at the grocery store applying coupon discounts to chedda cheese?

 

[athlonmank8]

Now combine Shortie's charts and my charts.

You have a lot of great information there.


Another one of these threads is going to pop up late next week. Just a heads up and i'll have my flame suit on as well.

 

[Ivanovich]

Was good resistance, and I think that's why we had a few days pandering around that area. But again, regardless of technical setups, you're fighting a machine that has far more ammunition than you do, and is "in-the-know" if not "ordered" to proceed as usual. In other words, it's rigged. So many examples of such in the past year, and fighting it - regardless of setups - is futile. If there were ever a more clear and potent example of "You can't beat them, join them", this is it.

I think the problem is that you honestly do not believe that this market is rigged. That's what's making you look for opportunities to go against it. If you truly, in your heart of hearts, believed that it was rigged to go only one direction, you would have no problem going along with it.

Futures rocketing up again today. Looks like it's another risk orgy.

 

[rcaldwell]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Was good resistance, and I think that's why we had a few days pandering around that area. But again, regardless of technical setups, you're fighting a machine that has far more ammunition than you do, and is "in-the-know" if not "ordered" to proceed as usual. In other words, it's rigged. So many examples of such in the past year, and fighting it - regardless of setups - is futile. If there were ever a more clear and potent example of "You can't beat them, join them", this is it.

Futures rocketing up again today. Looks like it's another risk orgy.

Something unnerving about this relentless march higher. Nevertheless the path of least resistance is up, you are right.

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from rcaldwell:

Something unnerving about this relentless march higher. Nevertheless the path of least resistance is up, you are right.

Oh, to be sure. It's complete insanity. But that's how irrational markets operate. There is no question in my mind that a stock market equivalent of Judgment Day is coming. But who is to say when? I've already staked my flag - the end of QE (if it indeed ends) this month should be a very telling indicator of what happens when the Fed pulls out the free money flying around in all the asset classes. It could just be that the "cartel" (for lack of a better word) knows this and is pumping the market as much as possible so that the dumb money hops on board just in time for the titanic to hit the next iceberg at month's end. Or perhaps the Fed wants the market as high as possible to cushion the blow from the end of QE.

No one worth their salt really believes this recovery is for real. It's all a magic trick worthy of Vegas. Everyone knows that the only reason any of the asset classes have been inflated to where they are is purely an act of unprecedented government stimulus. But at the end of the day, none of the reasoning is what matters.

Stand by the exit. Smaller than usual positions. Buy dips. Keep stops tight. Or don't play. But whatever you do, STOP shorting it. Stop giving it the energy to continue.

 

[noddyboy]

We probably have a down day today -- but I am long and I don't care about one day when it comes. The down day is more likely to come with a positive opening as shorts don't expect it, and it is probably going to be a minor negative day.

 

[Ivanovich]

Nope, no down day! It's up up up!

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Nope, no down day! It's up up up!

This is my guess:

Prob(Down day) = 60%
E(Drop on down day) = -0.3%
Prob(Up day) = 40%
E(Rise on up day) = 1.1%

So you are expected to make money staying long, shorting is long term unprofitable, but the chances of a down day are higher.

 

[fkbsuhites]

The ES is going to around 1300.

Trying to sell it below that level is insanity. But then again, most on here are already insane birther types.

Quote from noddyboy:

This is my guess:

Prob(Down day) = 60%
E(Drop on down day) = -0.3%
Prob(Up day) = 40%
E(Rise on up day) = 1.1%

So you are expected to make money staying long, shorting is long term unprofitable, but the chances of a down day are higher.