Boy Who Cried Bear Says We Are Going Down
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
It DOES looks like a top.
That'll probably blow out every algo out there right now haha. Can't wait till it does. This low volatility isn't going to last forever.
Still need to crack some TLs before this is "safe"
Quote from athlonmank8:
That'll probably blow out every algo out there right now haha. Can't wait till it does. This low volatility isn't going to last forever.
Still need to crack some TLs before this is "safe"
Go on vacation! Market will be flat for the next few months. Look at the polls. No one believes it will be flat and there are too many bulls and bears who already place their bets. No one will be trading.
just kiddin' here's some more reasoning.Quote from athlonmank8:
no I wasn't making fun of you.
EOQ soon. If large market participants were gonna sell they'd have done so either Thurs or today. Now we 're in the home stretch for eom and eoq so I am not looking for much volatility next week.
I would reason that the next two weeks are important to watch the behavior at around the top. Are prices rejected? What's the volume like at those prices? What happens when the new quarter starts? What about mid-April? Put the pieces together to solve the puzzle. Unless we repeat 2003 through 2007 timewise we are 60% through the bull cycle. Pricewise is to be determined. In a year or so the bull leg will have stalled although a lot of money is floating around looking for return. At present there is less room for FED "jobless recovery" compared with either 01-04 or 08 to 10. A new tax structure is coming round as well as a lack of consumer debt demand due to unemployment. Having said all that we corrected significantly (overcorrected) and so we are working through that as well which means we may just flatten out hence my call for a trading range.
We are at a variable timeframe convergance as well with expected reshuffling between short and long timeframe holders.
My expectation is for a trading range between 1180 and 1150 from now until mid-April and then 1180ish to 1050ish between now and the end of the 2nd quarter in the SPX.
Of course this is just a hypothesis let the market tell you how to trade it but you can watch price and then lower your risk by setting up good trade entries.
Trading ranges can be very profitable too.
666 in the SPX was very low. 850 was probable fair value which means we really only rallied 33% thus far.
Trading ranges can be very profitable too. [/QUOTE]
Just look at the last 10 years---March 25th, 2000 to March 25th, 2010 there's a trading range for you!!!
I think we're in for continued strength until 2011 then go short March 2011 then long March 2013 for a good bull run in stocks.